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Stupidity or Calculated Risk

Postby Iron Butterfly on Thu May 22, 2008 4:16 pm

There is a fine line between a player making a stupid move and making a calculated risk.

I give you game 2414262.

I have been working on my esculating strategy and in many games I come close but no cigar. Im usaly good at making it past round 5. I watch the board, spread myself evenly as possible, take the easy cards and have since learned that coninent bonus are meaningless compared to possition. I do not go for continents unless its really really there. I also dont break continents now because if one gets a chain of card captures continents are meaningless. In fact it seems to make the job easier of taking out folks if one person or two hold continents.

This game I feel I played my best game ever. I did everything right. I ignored orange as he took SA. 2 army bonus is meaning less. Orange went on to take africa as well. He had 2 continents and still got wiped. I took small guys for cards and when the time was right I took out 3 plyers in a row.

On my last turn in I had to make a choice . Blue has 5 cards, Tiel has 5 cards and purple had 5 cards. Tiel was the one vulnerable to be wiped next but do to positioning It was unlikely and would set up purple to take everyone out. Tiel had only 4 armies in Irktusk, while next door in Siberia Blue had 11. Tiel had his remaining in Australia with 6 in West Aust and 4 in New Guine. To complicate matters Purple has three in Eastern Australia. I knew I couldnt take Tiel out but someone else would unless I blocked effectively, which is what I did. I was very proud on how I played it. I saw to it that it would be exttremely difficult for any player to take out tiel in Australia AND Irktusk.

I take out purple in Japan and Alaska so he cant hit Irk if he tries from Oceana. I block Blue by putting 5 in mongolia and 10 in Siam. A person could take one but not the other. I would think that a smart person would recognize that if one takes one the other person will win.

Blue gets 23 on his turn and plops them in Siberia for a total of 34. He needs to take out 4 in Irk, My 5 in mongolia, 1 in China My 10 in Siam and Then Take Tiels 6 in WA and 4 in NG. He falls short and leaves 3, which purple takes his next turn.

left a neutral response on Blue move calling it a stupid move. Left alone Tiel would not have eliminated anyone and blue would have 35 plus armies on the board. I understand that once blue took the 4 in Irkust he had to commit.

Stupid move or calculated risk? Im interested in opinions.
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Re: Stupidity or Calculated Risk

Postby owenshooter on Thu May 22, 2008 4:20 pm

*reserving comment until twill is done following me in the forums.*

*eagerly awaiting brucewar to show up and discuss "gifting" of games.*
Last edited by owenshooter on Thu May 22, 2008 4:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stupidity or Calculated Risk

Postby Natewolfman on Thu May 22, 2008 4:22 pm

Iron Butterfly wrote:There is a fine line between a player making a stupid move and making a calculated risk.

I give you game 2414262.

I have been working on my esculating strategy and in many games I come close but no cigar. Im usaly good at making it past round 5. I watch the board, spread myself evenly as possible, take the easy cards and have since learned that coninent bonus are meaningless compared to possition. I do not go for continents unless its really really there. I also dont break continents now because if one gets a chain of card captures continents are meaningless. In fact it seems to make the job easier of taking out folks if one person or two hold continents.

This game I feel I played my best game ever. I did everything right. I ignored orange as he took SA. 2 army bonus is meaning less. Orange went on to take africa as well. He had 2 continents and still got wiped. I took small guys for cards and when the time was right I took out 3 plyers in a row.

On my last turn in I had to make a choice . Blue has 5 cards, Tiel has 5 cards and purple had 5 cards. Tiel was the one vulnerable to be wiped next but do to positioning It was unlikely and would set up purple to take everyone out. Tiel had only 4 armies in Irktusk, while next door in Siberia Blue had 11. Tiel had his remaining in Australia with 6 in West Aust and 4 in New Guine. To complicate matters Purple has three in Eastern Australia. I knew I couldnt take Tiel out but someone else would unless I blocked effectively, which is what I did. I was very proud on how I played it. I saw to it that it would be exttremely difficult for any player to take out tiel in Australia AND Irktusk.

I take out purple in Japan and Alaska so he cant hit Irk if he tries from Oceana. I block Blue by putting 5 in mongolia and 10 in Siam. A person could take one but not the other. I would think that a smart person would recognize that if one takes one the other person will win.

Blue gets 23 on his turn and plops them in Siberia for a total of 34. He needs to take out 4 in Irk, My 5 in mongolia, 1 in China My 10 in Siam and Then Take Tiels 6 in WA and 4 in NG. He falls short and leaves 3, which purple takes his next turn.

left a neutral response on Blue move calling it a stupid move. Left alone Tiel would not have eliminated anyone and blue would have 35 plus armies on the board. I understand that once blue took the 4 in Irkust he had to commit.

Stupid move or calculated risk? Im interested in opinions.

i probably would have done the same as blue did... sort of thing whare you look, everyone else has 5 cards "If i dont do it now... i wont live to see next turn" you see those alot in esc games, and when it works out, when your 5 men you have left manage to completely take a player from aussie and it leads to your win, it feels like a greater win then it would have been because you took the risk and succeeded!
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Re: Stupidity or Calculated Risk

Postby owenshooter on Thu May 22, 2008 4:25 pm

Natewolfman wrote:i probably would have done the same as blue did... sort of thing whare you look, everyone else has 5 cards "If i dont do it now... i wont live to see next turn"

exactly... if you wait, you aren't going to get a shot, so why not take a calculated risk which will either win you the game or get you killed (which is going to happen, regardless). i find it odd that feedback about how he played was left, he didn't do anything feedback worthy! yet another abuse of the feedback system, sigh... guy made a decision, and it almost worked. you can't win every game, even those that you feel you have played your best in.-0
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Re: Stupidity or Calculated Risk

Postby edbeard on Thu May 22, 2008 4:29 pm

It's hard for me to say without seeing the whole board (maybe people can start showing screenshots with the help of BOBs photo thingy)

Sometimes you have to take a shot even though it's a small chance of working. If they stood pat and waited, they might never had another shot to win. I'm assuming that if the move worked, they would've had a great shot to win. If they didn't take the shot, they might've needed more luck of others having bad rolls.
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Re: Stupidity or Calculated Risk

Postby BaldAdonis on Thu May 22, 2008 4:31 pm

Iron Butterfly wrote:Blue gets 23 on his turn and plops them in Siberia for a total of 34. He needs to take out 4 in Irk, My 5 in mongolia, 1 in China My 10 in Siam and Then Take Tiels 6 in WA and 4 in NG. He falls short and leaves 3, which purple takes his next turn.
This part I don't follow. If he has Siberia, then he doesn't need to go through Mongolia. Just take Irkutsk, don't advance, and go to China. Also, where is Indonesia in this map?

If you mean to say that he had 34 (!) and needed to take 4 (Irkutsk), 1 (China), 10 (Siam), 1 (Indonesia I presume), 6 (W. Aus), 4 (New Guinea), then he should definitely have done it. Odds are 81% for victory http://www.gamesbyemail.com/Games/Gambit/BattleOdds
If he went through Mongolia (maybe he likes the food there?) then his odds drop to 57%. Not the best, but the stupid move would be taking Mongolia.

*edit* Just looked at the game and he did it the right way.
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Re: Stupidity or Calculated Risk

Postby Iron Butterfly on Thu May 22, 2008 4:43 pm

owenshooter wrote:
Natewolfman wrote:i probably would have done the same as blue did... sort of thing whare you look, everyone else has 5 cards "If i dont do it now... i wont live to see next turn"

exactly... if you wait, you aren't going to get a shot, so why not take a calculated risk which will either win you the game or get you killed (which is going to happen, regardless). i find it odd that feedback about how he played was left, he didn't do anything feedback worthy! yet another abuse of the feedback system, sigh... guy made a decision, and it almost worked. you can't win every game, even those that you feel you have played your best in.-0


One mans abuse is anothers feedback. *grin* I was planning on removing it anyways so take the razor blade out of your hand and turn the bath water off.
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