Can Blue Squares win in a build game????

by **The Neon Peon** on Sat Jan 03, 2009 5:11 pm

Sun Zeus wrote:You could sacrifice Europe and take both South America and Australia. You would lose one deployment but you could squish red and yellows main forces together. Winning your game would depend on weather they attacked one another over Europe or not. Leave Europe all ones to instigate the fight over it while simultaneously preventing their continent bonus.

Or you could half attack Yellow at A1 to reduce his forces there to tempt red to attack Australia. Australia's like a magnet for attackers.

Whatever you do decide make sure they attack one another.

Definitely do not take this advice.

Here is what will happen: They will firstly take back their original bonuses because they have held them for a long time, and know they can keep them easily, unlike Europe.

Once that happens, you are dead.

Why would they go for Europe instead of their prior bonuses?

by **philh** on Sat Jan 03, 2009 5:40 pm

I'd be tempted to take N2,1,5,9. At that point, red is down to 8 and you're up to 9 per turn. Fort E1 to N3 because he'll want to take them back. He may or may not fort S1 into the fray, but in either case you should be able to emerge as the eventual victor of that minor conflict, thanks to slightly superior numbers and the advantage of aggression. From there, see where things develop.

A slight variation would be to take N6 instead of N9, leaving both you and red on 9 per turn. He might then be less aggressive in retaliating. But I don't think you need to worry about that, so I wouldn't go for this.

by **Sun Zeus** on Sat Jan 03, 2009 5:45 pm

-The Neon Peon wrote:

-Definitely do not take this advice.

-Here is what will happen: They will firstly take back their original bonuses because they have -held them for a long time, and know they can keep them easily, unlike Europe.

-Once that happens, you are dead.

-Why would they go for Europe instead of their prior bonuses?

Because Europe would be an easier target. But you are right as red on F2 would have the playback. It's just that red and yellow each have 400 forces right next to one another and they may not want to pull back either.

A1 would be locked for a turn by A2 and A6 next to red unless it follows through E7. Just leave more than 1 army behind as you move ahead and fortify.
Red is the next turn so If he's driven into yellow, there goes yellows game.
Why keep allot on E4 when E7 connects to E3 and E6. E6 and E3 also back up E 2, 4, and 5?

Like this (E3 > F1 reduction attack) (E7 > F1 > S3,4,2,1 while remaining on S3 advance to 1)
(E6> A3 > A5 > A7 > O1,2,3,4 with a few armies, leave most on A7.) (Fortify E4 to A7). Take N8 to stay in the area if there is a continent battle over S.A.

Can't say that this will work, but it's an idea.

by **The Neon Peon** on Sat Jan 03, 2009 5:51 pm

So you are assuming that his opponents are dumb and will fight each other for so long that they give the game away to someone else?
You should always expect the best moves from your opponents, no other way to win. Even if they do fight each other, you should still not expect them to be so dumb that they will kill each other completely in the process.

by **Sun Zeus** on Sat Jan 03, 2009 5:57 pm

If red goes after South America yellow could follow with his 392 forces leaving cyan in Australia and reducing red and yellow. You are right though Cyan doesn't seem to have enough forces for it. I was trying to get him away from the buildup.

by **Sun Zeus** on Sun Jan 04, 2009 4:15 am

With a good diplomatic tenderizing get the other players to agree that all should attack one another before the aforementioned conspiracy. You attack both and yellow may have no choice but to attack red on S squares with the mass. If they read this you might be toast but you won't get secret diplomacy because of the public nature of the forum. I'm wondering if you took you're turn but left it for 1 hour would you get those troops to deploy at the end of you next turn... ? Cyan > Red > Yellow > etc...

by **Sun Zeus** on Sun Jan 04, 2009 3:46 pm

Ok, this might be a better Idea.

These probabilities are from the Wikipedia article on Risk.

3 dice vs. 2 dice, ties to the defender: Attacker wins = 37.17%
Defender Wins = 29.26%
Both Win one = 33.58%

I would want to be the attacker in any battle because of these odds.
Your game has been going on for over 300 turns and seems to be consistent.
You get 8 deployments per turn.

My suggestion...

Attack from each buildup once per turn.

If you win both dice, attack again.

If you win 1 dice and lose 1 dice move onto your next army and attack again doing the same as before until you have attacked from all major buildups.

If you lose both dice immediately stop attacking and go into fortification mode.

This system will expose you to some lucky attack runs while limiting losses to below your deployment bonus while giving you the attackers edge.