Dice, again!

[nikola_milicki]

Can one of you guys, who believe that theres nothing wrong with the dice, please explain to all of us who lose 5,6...10... units attacking 1 every fu_king day, even tho we have 3 dice attacking 1 dice, so odds should be greatly on our side, why is it not possible to take out lets say 4,5 enemy units while attacking with 1 (you have 2 on your territory) even tho defense has only 2 dice.
Haven't heard any attacker was that lucky ever.

[kalishnikov]

Overall stats
Attacker threw 3894 dice.
Defender threw 1995 dice.
Wins / Ties / Loses █████████████████████████ 688 / 207 / 478
█████ Attacker wins
█████ Attacker wins 1, defender wins 1
█████ Defender wins

I've only had the dice analyzer for about a month, but I'm on the winning side. Earlier today I beat a stack of 10 with 4....

I suggest you get the DA and watch it for awhile. You'll see it evens out in the end, the bad rolls and just far more memorable then the good ones.

[RobinJ]

My dice analyzer is also just about as it should be:
- slightly up on wins and ties in 3v2s (down on losses)
- down 1.62% on wins in 3v1s
- up 9% on 2v2 wins (mind you I've only rolled 16 of them with the dice analyzer
- down almost 5% on 2v1s - now this I am concerned about because I roll quite a lot of them
- up 25% on 1v2s (but only rolled 3 of those)
- up 5% on 1v1s - again I am surprised since I roll quite a lot of them but I don't really mind

[DiM]

here's my dice analyzer from 2 days ago:

i've bolded my most rolled dice and the defender's most rolled dice. as you can see i'm having bad luck.

Attacker dice distribution..... Defender dice distribution
1s 1901 / 11169 (17.02%)..... 892 / 5424 (16.45%)
2s 1755 / 11169 (15.71%)..... 907 / 5424 (16.72%)
3s 1927 / 11169 (17.25%)..... 860 / 5424 (15.86%)
4s 1851 / 11169 (16.57%)..... 896 / 5424 (16.52%)
5s 1870 / 11169 (16.74%)..... 925 / 5424 (17.05%)
6s 1865 / 11169 (16.7%)..... 944 / 5424 (17.4%)

oh and i'm under the ideal winning percentages at all battles except 1vs2.

[RobinJ]

here's my dice analyzer from 2 days ago:

i've bolded my most rolled dice and the defender's most rolled dice. as you can see i'm having bad luck.

Attacker dice distribution..... Defender dice distribution
1s 1901 / 11169 (17.02%)..... 892 / 5424 (16.45%)
2s 1755 / 11169 (15.71%)..... 907 / 5424 (16.72%)
3s 1927 / 11169 (17.25%)..... 860 / 5424 (15.86%)
4s 1851 / 11169 (16.57%)..... 896 / 5424 (16.52%)
5s 1870 / 11169 (16.74%)..... 925 / 5424 (17.05%)
6s 1865 / 11169 (16.7%)..... 944 / 5424 (17.4%)

oh and i'm under the ideal winning percentages at all battles except 1vs2.

Both me and the defender roll mostly 4s - the rest of the rolls are more or less even

[zarvinny]

there you go.

Ideal Stats
3v2 (37.17% / 33.58% / 29.26%)
3v1 (65.97% / 34.03%)
2v2 (22.76% / 32.41% / 44.83%)
2v1 (57.87% / 42.13%)
1v2 (25.46% / 74.54%)
1v1 (41.67% / 58.33%)


My analyzer has restarted, but this is what I managed to get saved. I'll say the dice tend to me streaky, even for days at a time. But unimaginable good luck must be on your way, or perhaps was on your way until you passed it onto your journey to terrible dice rolls.

[RobinJ]

Zarvinny - give me a few of those 6s - I roll f*ck all of them

I guess that's why your ranking is higher than mine

[zarvinny]

I guess that's why your ranking is higher than mine

Agreed.

[nikola_milicki]

Overall stats
Attacker threw 3894 dice.
Defender threw 1995 dice.
Wins / Ties / Loses █████████████████████████ 688 / 207 / 478
█████ Attacker wins
█████ Attacker wins 1, defender wins 1
█████ Defender wins

I've only had the dice analyzer for about a month, but I'm on the winning side. Earlier today I beat a stack of 10 with 4....

I suggest you get the DA and watch it for awhile. [b]You'll see it evens out in the end, the bad rolls and just far more memorable then the good ones.

Maybe it evens out in the end but its a bitch when dice f*ck up everything in their sick twisted way in crucial moment, especialy when you're attacking 1 damn unit.

Still didn't get answer to my question.
HOW IS IT POSSIBLE TO LOSE XXX UNITS WHEN ATTACKING 1 WHEN WE ALL KNOW IT NEVER HAPPENS OTHER WAY AROUND???

[dcowboys055]

Suck it up cupcake?

[jako]

i was recently on a pretty good dice streak for about 4 games or so, then i lost it. now my dice are even worse than they were before the streak. *sigh* them dice gods hates me.

[Bboru]

Can one of you guys, who believe that theres nothing wrong with the dice, please explain to all of us who lose 5,6...10... units attacking 1 every fu_king day, even tho we have 3 dice attacking 1 dice, so odds should be greatly on our side, why is it not possible to take out lets say 4,5 enemy units while attacking with 1 (you have 2 on your territory) even tho defense has only 2 dice.
Haven't heard any attacker was that lucky ever.

At the Battle of Thermopylae, Xerxes the Great had the Spartans to complain about. Here at Conquer Club you have the Dice. No matter how many armies you have, you are still only fighting 1 vs 1 or 2 vs 2 on every die roll.

[oVo]

The odds ddon't mean a lot as it's all theoretical jibberish. There's still a lot of luck involved
which is exactly what "a roll of the dice" or "rolling the dice" means.

Today in two different games:
15 vs 1 and lost 6 armies bebore it fell.
12 vs 4 and the attack ended at 3 vs 3.

In the same game another player lost 9 attacking 1 defender
and finally gave up on the attack.

Having the odds in your favor is nothing more than that,
because nothing is automatic.

[DiM]

i use a lot of auto attack especially when i want to take my turns fast and especially when i attack single army terits. recently i pressed it in a 14vs1 battle. when i saw it came down to 3vs1 i could not believe it. i continued pressing attack until that 3vs1 turned into 1vs1. i lost 13 troops without killing a single army terit. in that battle i rolled 3 times this dice sequence 1,1,2.

also i lost 10 vs1. thanks to the auto attack.

i have crappy dice as you can all see in the statistics above.

despite this i did manage in a recent game to kill 8 troops with 10 without a single loss.

so yeah dice can certainly be crappy sometimes but they can also save a game for you.


my only concern is that i've seen some strange things in ~70 games i've played on CC, things i never saw before in the thousands of games i've played in real life. things like that 14vs1 loss.

[nikola_milicki]

I've bin loosing units exactly the same way all of you guys did, we all know dice has six numbers on it and its all about luck on which number it stops and we cant do shit about it. The only thing that bothers me, and nobody seems to get it, is that its impossible to attack and defeat lets say 4 units with only 1, but we get screwed the other way around every single day. In my opinion thats not fair! We have all been loosing games just because we got dice-screwed like that in just one round no matter how good our strategy was, I know I have too many times. Its not fair that "dice-program" allows this.

[oVo]

I like to think that the crappy dice rolls balance out . . . somewhere . . . eventually.

My worst auto attack was 48 vs 9 and I ended up 3 vs 1 and in a freestyle game where everyone was in action I auto attacked my 44 vs 52 in desperation to be quick and broke through with 11 armies to spare.

Recently in a tight no cards game on the Asia map I conquered 9 with 7 and still had 4 left.

[Aerial Attack]

Here are the actual probabilities:

3 v 2 (A|D|T): 39.21%|28.63%|32.16%
7776 probable outcomes

2 v 2 (A|D|T): 22.76%|44.68%|32.56%
1296 probable outcomes

1 v 2 (A|D): 25.46%|74.54%
216 probable outcomes

3 v 1 (A|D): 65.97%|34.03%
1296 probable outcomes

2 v 1 (A|D): 57.87%|42.13%
216 probable outcomes

1 v 1 (A|D): 41.67%|58.33%
36 probable outcomes

Theories based on the numbers:

Always attack with 4+ armies (desperation?).
Always defend with 2+ armies (never leave any one alone?).

9 vs 11 is the first true 50/50 battle (you feeling lucky, punk?).
NOTE: I rounded 39.21 to 40 and 28.63 to 30 in order to have 10 die rolls work (in which case attacker loses 9 and defender loses 11!). Actually the first 8 rolls should result in 16 armies lost (7 attacker and 9 defender), meaning the last 2 rolls should be 2 v 1 [or 1 v 1] - at a loss of only 1 army per turn (resulting in either 1 attacker or 0 defender).

NOTE: Wouldn't 4 vs 5 work too? (No, because once attacker loses 1st army, they lose the 3rd attacking die).

[Aerial Attack]

I've bin loosing units exactly the same way all of you guys did, we all know dice has six numbers on it and its all about luck on which number it stops and we cant do shit about it. The only thing that bothers me, and nobody seems to get it, is that its impossible to attack and defeat lets say 4 units with only 1, but we get screwed the other way around every single day. In my opinion thats not fair! We have all been loosing games just because we got dice-screwed like that in just one round no matter how good our strategy was, I know I have too many times. Its not fair that "dice-program" allows this.

Nikola - in actuality, it is entirely possible (.2546 x .2546 x .2546 x .2546 = just over 1 in 256 chance) of winning 1 v 4

The thing is, knowing the odds are against attackers as such - people only carry out such an attack if they think they can eliminate an opponent or earn a country. Therefore, in a day the ENTIRE site doesn't see 256 such attacks.

Conversely, knowing the odds are in the attackers favor 65.97 vs 34.03 - people attack 4 vs 1 with extreme confidence. The odds of losing such a battle are (.3403 x .4213 x .5833 = .084 or about 1 in 12). In a single game, this happens more than 12 times (nearly guaranteeing a defender hold)

[RobinJ]

i use a lot of auto attack especially when i want to take my turns fast and especially when i attack single army terits. recently i pressed it in a 14vs1 battle. when i saw it came down to 3vs1 i could not believe it. i continued pressing attack until that 3vs1 turned into 1vs1. i lost 13 troops without killing a single army terit. in that battle i rolled 3 times this dice sequence 1,1,2.

also i lost 10 vs1. thanks to the auto attack.

i have crappy dice as you can all see in the statistics above.

despite this i did manage in a recent game to kill 8 troops with 10 without a single loss.

so yeah dice can certainly be crappy sometimes but they can also save a game for you.


my only concern is that i've seen some strange things in ~70 games i've played on CC, things i never saw before in the thousands of games i've played in real life. things like that 14vs1 loss.

I just don't trust auto-attack at all - you either win or lose hugely so I don't think it works properly

I've bin loosing units exactly the same way all of you guys did, we all know dice has six numbers on it and its all about luck on which number it stops and we cant do shit about it. The only thing that bothers me, and nobody seems to get it, is that its impossible to attack and defeat lets say 4 units with only 1, but we get screwed the other way around every single day. In my opinion thats not fair! We have all been loosing games just because we got dice-screwed like that in just one round no matter how good our strategy was, I know I have too many times. Its not fair that "dice-program" allows this.

Ah but do you know that for certain? I have attacked 1v2 3 times since getting the dice analyzer so there is no way that you can assert whether this is true or not. Besides, you are more likely to lose a 3v1 than win a 1v2