Conquer Club

Come on people!!!!!

Give us your XXv1 and possibly every other dicerape you had.

Maybe thats just one little bug in the program and could be easily fixed. We lose 4,5,6,7,8,...,14...units attacking just 1 every day and that will continue unless we react now

worst run: 14 vs 1 and i lost.

second worst: 12 vs 1 before I broke through.

usual: 5 vs 1 before I break through.

The worst I've ever noticed is losing 5 armies in a 20v1. According to my handy dandy Monte Carlo sim, that's about a 0.4% chance. Consider how often you attack 1 army with a huge stack - it shouldn't surprise people that these things happen occasionally.

my worst ever was 17 vs1 auto attack and it came down to 3vs1. i kept on attacking and lost.

the defender rolled five sixes in a row and 4 other separate sixes in total he rolled 10 sixes out of 16 rolls.

but i frequently lose 3-6 vs 1

DiM wrote:my worst ever was 17 vs1 auto attack and it came down to 3vs1. i kept on attacking and lost.

the defender rolled five sixes in a row and 4 other separate sixes in total he rolled 10 sixes out of 16 rolls.

but i frequently lose 3-6 vs 1

If this is accurate, it is very, very unusual. The odds against losing 17 against 1 should be around 4,958,000 to 1. Not impossible, but lottery-level unlucky.

There is nothing wrong with frequently losing 3-6 vs 1, however. Losing 6v1 is about 1% so that probably happens once every few games if you attack 1s down to the last army regularly.

after i lost a few very strange auto attacks recently i stopped using that feature.
i manually attack all the time.

the problem is i can't stop attacking.

let's say i have 10 vs 1 and lose like 4 or 5 in a row. i always keep going saying this can't go on forever, and unfortunately sometimes it does.

PS: 5 million to 1. hmm. i'd better go buy some lottery tickets. if you don't see me on the site for a while it means i won the lottery and i'm sueing random.org for inaccurate results.

DiM wrote:my worst ever was 17 vs1 auto attack and it came down to 3vs1. i kept on attacking and lost.

the defender rolled five sixes in a row and 4 other separate sixes in total he rolled 10 sixes out of 16 rolls.

but i frequently lose 3-6 vs 1

17 vs 1 The odds are less than 0.00001%

DiM wrote:PS: 5 million to 1. hmm. i'd better go buy some lottery tickets. if you don't see me on the site for a while it means i won the lottery and i'm sueing random.org for inaccurate results.

good luck with the lottery! hope you win it. buy me a car if you win, not much, just a lambourghini diablo

my most rolled dice are 1 and 3 and the defender's most rolled dice are 5 and 6 so i'm not that surprised.

also i'm under the ideal stats at all battle outcomes except 1vs2


PS: i have 17k rolls.

my worst ever dice:

I attacked 24 vs 9 and lost.

Then, just desperate for a card, I did another attack, this time 9 vs 1 and lost again.

The worst I can remember was losing 10 attacking 1, but things like -3,-4,-5... happen every day, sometimes even many times in one day in the same game and you all know where does that get me especially when playing 1vs1. Things like that dont happen in real risk.

Bean_ wrote:

DiM wrote:my worst ever was 17 vs1 auto attack and it came down to 3vs1. i kept on attacking and lost.

the defender rolled five sixes in a row and 4 other separate sixes in total he rolled 10 sixes out of 16 rolls.

but i frequently lose 3-6 vs 1

If this is accurate, it is very, very unusual. The odds against losing 17 against 1 should be around 4,958,000 to 1. Not impossible, but lottery-level unlucky.

There is nothing wrong with frequently losing 3-6 vs 1, however. Losing 6v1 is about 1% so that probably happens once every few games if you attack 1s down to the last army regularly.

Perhaps its very unlucky to him, but keep in mind we are at over 500,000 games played. Most games would have hundreds if not thousands of dice rolls, so everything that should seem very rare should be occurring somewhere in these games. And people are likely to remember the very rare occurrences which is why you hear about them disproportionately often.

From the thread "Best Game I've Ever Played" (still true to date):

sully800 wrote:Wow, I also just had the best DICE of my life.

Started my last turn with 6 men remaining but had a set- He had 44 men across the map (mostly singles- one country of 2 and one of 3). The cards and 3 man bonus gave me 59 total vs. 44. Right now it is 50vs1. I killed 43 of his men and lost only 9. That's not even fair!

The chances of defeating all of those men is less than 13%. The chances of doing it and having 50 men left over (or better) is 0.15755%. Its certainly going to happen more often than DiM's situation (which is 0.00001%) But I'll take the great dice any day. The dice on this site are awesome!

any battle 5 vs 3 or less I dont bother trying unless it is to finish the game off. I would say 95% of the time I lose.

3 vs 3 is rediculous. i cant tell you the last time I won a battle like that and we all know the amount of games I play. I probably had that secnerio more than any other player and im batting almost a goose egg on those.

sully800 wrote:

Bean_ wrote:

DiM wrote:my worst ever was 17 vs1 auto attack and it came down to 3vs1. i kept on attacking and lost.

the defender rolled five sixes in a row and 4 other separate sixes in total he rolled 10 sixes out of 16 rolls.

but i frequently lose 3-6 vs 1

If this is accurate, it is very, very unusual. The odds against losing 17 against 1 should be around 4,958,000 to 1. Not impossible, but lottery-level unlucky.

There is nothing wrong with frequently losing 3-6 vs 1, however. Losing 6v1 is about 1% so that probably happens once every few games if you attack 1s down to the last army regularly.

Perhaps its very unlucky to him, but keep in mind we are at over 500,000 games played. Most games would have hundreds if not thousands of dice rolls, so everything that should seem very rare should be occurring somewhere in these games. And people are likely to remember the very rare occurrences which is why you hear about them disproportionately often.

Recognize that -- it isn't prima facie evidence that the dice are broken, although I would be interested in knowing more about the methodology of taking data from random.org.

If there have been 500,000 completed games and each game averages 20 attacks of 17v1 or greater, we would even then expect only about 2 failures of that sort in the history of the site. If each game averages more like 200 of these, we would expect something like that once a month or so. Not sure which guess is more accurate -- in escalating (and to a lesser extent, flat rate) games there will be a lot more once the card count is high; in no cards it is pretty unusual except at the end of the game (and less than 20 is probably normal for those games).

Bean_ wrote:Recognize that -- it isn't prima facie evidence that the dice are broken, although I would be interested in knowing more about the methodology of taking data from random.org.

as far as i know many other sites are making calls to random.org so this is an important factor as random stretches far beyond the CC dice. maybe while i got that 17vs1 loss in another site ome really lucky numbers were thrown.

it would be interesting to know how many calls does random.org receive per day then make the stats for CC. i bet the chances won't be so slim if random .org receives 1 million calls per day

I have not had bad dice

I have said this before, but I'm sure it could be said again without people being too annoyed.

Assuming that the random.com dice works as a regular, perfect dice (altough, a simulated dice can not be totally statistically "random" the way a real dice is). Throwing a real dice, statistically, each throw is a separate entity. Whatever you rolled the past ten throws doesn't matter, you still have the basic attacking/defending odds. Thus, having lost 5 throws in a row doesn't make it more or less likely that you will win the coming throw.

ahhh you play craps.

ive thrown 180000 dice in here...I havent seen anything impossible...theres thousands of players, millions of dice have been thrown....a few bad runs attacking while the defender wins ties doesnt surprise me at all

and when its a story where someone was attacking while the defender had 2 or more, the numbers get cut in half, and dont seem as bad...

10 vs two is 5 bad rolls....conceptually it seems impossible because ten guys could kill 2 easily, but 3 to 2 dice with defender winning ties is damn close odds....doesnt take much to throw it either way....ie the reason the game is fun, and the reason you see some interesting results

stay at home, and throw 180000 dice against 90000 defending dice...i bet you find some interesting streaks

if the dice were acting as the complaining people would want to then there would be no fun in the game. i'll always remember a game were i lost 50 vs10 as well as one when i managed to win 10vs50 but i'll never remember a game where the dice act "normal" and 5vs1 always wins.

the point is dice are the same for everybody random or not they don't help anybody in particular. and to be frank i'm getting a warm proud feeling when i win a game and then look at my shitty analyzer stats. it makes me feel that tactics won the game despite having bad dice.

if the dice fairy came to me and offered that i win each and every roll i'd kindly refuse* here as it would spoil the fun of the game.



*except in BR )

Today's euro millions jackpot is estimated £26 million, I'm there.

For the past few days my luck seems to be ok, it was awful last week until my friend stole my bad luck from me in a 1 v 1, and it's been pretty normal ever since.

worst ever........ 24v1
next round...13v1
next round....9v1
next round.....finally 6v1 and i broke through

44 v 11 and I won, but only had 2 guys left ... never felt so bloody raped in my life

- AD'

I lost a 13 on 1....not as bad as the others but thats my worst.
I've also won a 43 on 8 but was left with 22...then right after that it was 22 on 4 and i was left with only 7

I havent read anything here but just want to post mine... I had 29 armies to kill 10. Do you think I made it. No. The dice are really getting on my nerves now.. I lose everything and my opponents win 3v3 and have.... 1+2 left!