Conquer Club

In my game #714636 Bean has cashed in 4 perfect sets in a row. I wondered if anyone has ever done better than that. It's the only reason our game isn't over yet lol.

game # 486271

AK had 6 perfect cashes in a row, and they were all in the same turn! lol.

care to look at this 1 ??

http://www.conquerclub.com/game.php?game=685353#gmtop


and at least i finished the game

chessplaya wrote:care to look at this 1 ??

http://www.conquerclub.com/game.php?game=685353#gmtop


and at least i finished the game

Doesn't count chessy....only 5 cashes

The Fuzzy Pengui wrote:

chessplaya wrote:care to look at this 1 ??

http://www.conquerclub.com/game.php?game=685353#gmtop


and at least i finished the game

Doesn't count chessy....only 5 cashes

ya but see the thread is about 4 cashes and i actually hit that barrier

i have done more then 5 , but cant remember game numbers as i play a lot of those escl. standard games

More interesting would be finding out who had the longest streak with no perfects, or the longest with only reds.

treefiddy wrote:More interesting would be finding out who had the longest streak with no perfects, or the longest with only reds.

true, because a mixed set is the most likely. More than 3 times as likely as getting a set of blues (or equivalently as set of reds or greens)

not true... chances of getting a set of red with 3 is 1 out of 27. chances of getting either all reds, blues, or greens with 3 is 1 out of 9. chances of getting a mixed set with 3 is 2 out of 9. so actually it's twice as likely to have a mixed set than a set of 1 color.

maniacmath17 wrote:not true... chances of getting a set of red with 3 is 1 out of 27. chances of getting either all reds, blues, or greens with 3 is 1 out of 9. chances of getting a mixed set with 3 is 2 out of 9. so actually it's twice as likely to have a mixed set than a set of 1 color.

is that correct?
how many red cards, green cards, and blue cards are there?

there isn't really any # of cards, each card is just randomly generated at the end of someone's turn. only rule is it can't be of a country that is already on another person's card.

maniacmath17 wrote:there isn't really any # of cards, each card is just randomly generated at the end of someone's turn. only rule is it can't be of a country that is already on another person's card.

I always thought there were less blue cards than green, and less green cards then red, and thats why the values in flat rate are what they are. wow, this blows my mind

maniacmath17 wrote:not true... chances of getting a set of red with 3 is 1 out of 27. chances of getting either all reds, blues, or greens with 3 is 1 out of 9. chances of getting a mixed set with 3 is 2 out of 9. so actually it's twice as likely to have a mixed set than a set of 1 color.

false. Your calculation is based on only getting 3 cards.

assuming you always cash in when you get your first set (no holding out for a better set), you have a 14/27 probability of your first set being a mixed set and a 13/81 probability of red and equivalently blue or green being your first set. 13/81 + 13/81 + 13/81 + 14/27 =1.

You are only 1/13th more likely to get a mixed set ((14/27)/(13/27)) over any colored set BUT you are 1/3 more likely to get a mixed set over any SPECIFIC color AKA you are almost 3x as likely to get a mixed set, than a set of reds.((14/27)/(5/27))=2.8

I think it is intentional that mixed is more. I mean why even have different values for reds, blues, and greens if they are all as equally likely. I think it is done to keep the game moving quicker.

This accounts for possibility of not getting a set on your 3rd or fourth draw instead of only focusing on the 3rd draw.

Also notice that I meant 3 times as likely as getting a specific colored set and not 3 times as likely as any colored set.

Here is the calculation:
when you have 3 cards there is a 2/9 chance of a mixed set and a 1/9 chance of a colored set. That means there is a 6/9 chance that you will not have a set on your 3rd card. If you have 3 cards and no set, you must have 2 of one color and one of another. The chance of you getting the color you need on the fourth card is 1 in 3 for a mixed set and 1 in 3 to add to the color you have 2 of. There is also a 1 in 3 chance of you getting another of the color you have only one of thereby giving you 2 pair. The probability that you need a 5th card to make a set GIVEN that you didn't have one when you were getting your 4th card is 1 in 3 (the same as the probability that you get 2 pair on the 4th card). The 5th card has a 1 in 3 chance of giving you a mixed set and a 2/3 chance of completing one of your pairs.

Probability of first set being a mixed set = (probability of mixed set on 3rd card) + (probability of mixed set on 4th card)*(probability of no set on 3rd card) + (probability of mixed set on 5th card)*(probability of no set on 4th card)*(probability of no set on 3rd card) = 2/9 + (1/3)(6/9) + (1/3)(1/3)(6/9) = 14/27

probability of colored set = 1 -14/27 = 13/27
probability of red = probability of green = probability of blue =(13/27)/3 = 13/81

It's simple Bayesian probabilities.

misterman10 wrote:

maniacmath17 wrote:there isn't really any # of cards, each card is just randomly generated at the end of someone's turn. only rule is it can't be of a country that is already on another person's card.

I always thought there were less blue cards than green, and less green cards then red, and thats why the values in flat rate are what they are. wow, this blows my mind

even if that were true, a mixed set would be more likely than a blue, red, or green set so why would that get you more armies?

I see.. Now I can sleep at night.... thank you for that

David_Wain wrote:I see.. Now I can sleep at night.... thank you for that

*cough cough*

i aint never gonna sleep after that !

maniacmath17 wrote:game # 486271

AK had 6 perfect cashes in a row, and they were all in the same turn! lol.

wasn't this a test though?