Conquer Club

What is the estimated amount of time before 2 Million Games?

prolly feb... at this rate maybe end of feb marchish i reckon
games is at 1.47 mil so yer and 1 mil was in oct. and its only gonna get faster

lord voldemort wrote:prolly feb... at this rate maybe end of feb marchish i reckon
games is at 1.47 mil so yer and 1 mil was in oct. and its only gonna get faster

March 3rd, 4th or 5th is my prediction. (ie March 4th +/- 1 day)

Based on the simple equation: y = 8E-07x^4 + 0.0043x^3 - 1.007x^2 + 207.21x + 511.74
Where x is the number of days since CC's inception and y is the number of games.

sully800 wrote:

lord voldemort wrote:prolly feb... at this rate maybe end of feb marchish i reckon
games is at 1.47 mil so yer and 1 mil was in oct. and its only gonna get faster

March 3rd, 4th or 5th is my prediction. (ie March 4th +/- 1 day)

Based on the simple equation: y = 8E-07x^4 + 0.0043x^3 - 1.007x^2 + 207.21x + 511.74
Where x is the number of days since CC's inception and y is the number of games.

simple maths . . .

very simple maths just a simple equation solves all

next year

sully800 wrote:

lord voldemort wrote:prolly feb... at this rate maybe end of feb marchish i reckon
games is at 1.47 mil so yer and 1 mil was in oct. and its only gonna get faster

March 3rd, 4th or 5th is my prediction. (ie March 4th +/- 1 day)

Based on the simple equation: y = 8E-07x^4 + 0.0043x^3 - 1.007x^2 + 207.21x + 511.74
Where x is the number of days since CC's inception and y is the number of games.

That is interesting but i assume completely crap lol the numbers are plucked from nowhere i assume it is just a joke but i am to tired to see sarcasm

boberz wrote:

sully800 wrote:

lord voldemort wrote:prolly feb... at this rate maybe end of feb marchish i reckon
games is at 1.47 mil so yer and 1 mil was in oct. and its only gonna get faster

March 3rd, 4th or 5th is my prediction. (ie March 4th +/- 1 day)

Based on the simple equation: y = 8E-07x^4 + 0.0043x^3 - 1.007x^2 + 207.21x + 511.74
Where x is the number of days since CC's inception and y is the number of games.

That is interesting but i assume completely crap lol the numbers are plucked from nowhere i assume it is just a joke but i am to tired to see sarcasm

Sadly, its not a joke. Just solve the equation!



I included some data instead of just the graph to show what I did. When we were approaching 1,000,000 games I graphed the # of games vs date to make a good prediction so I could be around for the Battle Royale. Seeing this thread, I just updated the data with 4 more points. Then I added a 4th and 5th degree trend line, and used that equation to re-calculate the game numbers in the past. The 5th degree line was a better prediction over most of the data, but at the end it got more skewed. So I figured the 4th degree line was a better prediction for the future. Then I just expanded the data for dates in the future, and looked at what date corresponds with Game 2,000,000.

For reference, the prediction from the 5th degree line was March 8th or so I think.

sully800 wrote:Sadly, its not a joke. Just solve the equation!



I included some data instead of just the graph to show what I did. When we were approaching 1,000,000 games I graphed the # of games vs date to make a good prediction so I could be around for the Battle Royale. Seeing this thread, I just updated the data with 4 more points. Then I added a 4th and 5th degree trend line, and used that equation to re-calculate the game numbers in the past. The 5th degree line was a better prediction over most of the data, but at the end it got more skewed. So I figured the 4th degree line was a better prediction for the future. Then I just expanded the data for dates in the future, and looked at what date corresponds with Game 2,000,000.

For reference, the prediction from the 5th degree line was March 8th or so I think.

Ohhh... i feel lightheaded right now, you blue furry beast you...

So how many games actually played, anyway to figure that out?
there are so many games that never start...
maybe an estimate?

Lack can give you the exact number of games played instead of games started. This is from the beginning of Sept:

lackattack wrote:Right now the highest game # is 823560 but there are only really 676567 out there.

That is 82% of games created actually get played. Speed games are probably ever decreasing that ratio since they expire so quickly, but I remember the ratio was about the same when we hit 1,000,000.

We are currently at Game # 1451967 so that means ~1,200,000 games actually played (or in progress)

sully800 wrote:Lack can give you the exact number of games played instead of games started. This is from the beginning of Sept:

lackattack wrote:Right now the highest game # is 823560 but there are only really 676567 out there.

That is 82% of games created actually get played. Speed games are probably ever decreasing that ratio since they expire so quickly, but I remember the ratio was about the same when we hit 1,000,000.

We are currently at Game # 1451967 so that means ~1,200,000 games actually played (or in progress)

That was quick... I thought it wouldn't be so easy...

So what was the REAL 1 millionth game? Any way to zero in on that?
Then we do the same thing for the real 2 million, etc... TWICE the fun!

Holy moly.....

Too much math.

Violent Ed wrote:Holy moly.....

Too much math.

It's really quite simple i mean just look at the formula

Do you know who is a winner of 1000000 game?
LACKATTACK

WalkingShadow wrote:What is the estimated amount of time before 2 Million Games?

guessing late February

it takes a long time probly next march maybe late in the month cause this game is growing lik crazy

<Twill presses the "change game number" button and makes game 2,000,000>

Today!

Do I win a prize???

Twill

Based on the new data it looks more like March 6th +/- one day. So I guess I'll have to hope my original prediction of March 5th is right.

I agree with sully

...

Twill wrote:<Twill presses the "change game number" button and makes game 2,000,000>

Today!

Do I win a prize???

Twill

sigh...-0

sully800 wrote:Based on the new data it looks more like March 6th +/- one day. So I guess I'll have to hope my original prediction of March 5th is right.

out of curiosity, and slightly off topic, does any of your data take into effect seasonal use, i know it always seems that when school is out for the summer, and winter, that the ammount of games being played seems to slow down. is it just my perception, or is there even enough of an impact to change the outcome of such predictions?

march 5th ftw! bday

sully800 wrote:Based on the new data it looks more like March 6th +/- one day. So I guess I'll have to hope my original prediction of March 5th is right.

Make it the 7th... Ill celebrate my BDay with CCs 2mill day

JR, dont join any games on the 5th or 6th... that should throw sully's predictions out the window

sully800 wrote:

boberz wrote:

sully800 wrote:

lord voldemort wrote:prolly feb... at this rate maybe end of feb marchish i reckon
games is at 1.47 mil so yer and 1 mil was in oct. and its only gonna get faster

March 3rd, 4th or 5th is my prediction. (ie March 4th +/- 1 day)

Based on the simple equation: y = 8E-07x^4 + 0.0043x^3 - 1.007x^2 + 207.21x + 511.74
Where x is the number of days since CC's inception and y is the number of games.

That is interesting but i assume completely crap lol the numbers are plucked from nowhere i assume it is just a joke but i am to tired to see sarcasm

Sadly, its not a joke. Just solve the equation!



I included some data instead of just the graph to show what I did. When we were approaching 1,000,000 games I graphed the # of games vs date to make a good prediction so I could be around for the Battle Royale. Seeing this thread, I just updated the data with 4 more points. Then I added a 4th and 5th degree trend line, and used that equation to re-calculate the game numbers in the past. The 5th degree line was a better prediction over most of the data, but at the end it got more skewed. So I figured the 4th degree line was a better prediction for the future. Then I just expanded the data for dates in the future, and looked at what date corresponds with Game 2,000,000.

For reference, the prediction from the 5th degree line was March 8th or so I think.

Based on that graph however, at day = 0 as in when the site was first created there was 511.74 games. however I personally think the game number was closer to 0, unless that constant at the end is the mean calculation error, in which case 511/1450000 is around .0003 so you are actually remarkably accurate

Looks like I was a couple of days early. Maybe if lack wasn't recommending people to skip speed games we would have hit 2 million already!