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4 Cards not making a match

Postby RADAGA on Fri Jun 20, 2008 6:34 am

Did anyone noticed that is WAY too common to get 4 cards, two of each color, making no change possible?

Every time I see I have 2 blue, 1 red or 2 green, 1 blue or whatever, the chance the card I´ll get will be the ONLY ONE that wont make a match is much larger than the roughly 33% it is supposed to be.

Now, for instance, I have 4 games on, two of them I have 4 cards, two of each type.

How common you perceive this to happen?
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Re: 4 Cards not making a match

Postby JimRocky on Fri Jun 20, 2008 7:05 am

RADAGA wrote:Did anyone noticed that is WAY too common to get 4 cards, two of each color, making no change possible?

Every time I see I have 2 blue, 1 red or 2 green, 1 blue or whatever, the chance the card I´ll get will be the ONLY ONE that wont make a match is much larger than the roughly 33% it is supposed to be.

Now, for instance, I have 4 games on, two of them I have 4 cards, two of each type.

How common you perceive this to happen?



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Re: 4 Cards not making a match

Postby edsdad on Fri Jun 20, 2008 7:06 am

Seems to be happening more often lately.
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Re: 4 Cards not making a match

Postby Yvgni on Fri Jun 20, 2008 7:07 am

You may have noticed that each country has a color.

If you take the total number of countries that your *opponents* have, sort them into their respective colors, and calculate what percentage of blue,green,red that each has -- then if you multiply each one of those percents by the percent of blues,greens,reds (countries, not cards) that you have, and subtract each from 100%, this will give you the relative %chance of your next card.

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Re: 4 Cards not making a match

Postby PepperJack on Fri Jun 20, 2008 7:16 am

Each country does not have a color in respect to cards. You can cash a card then pull it again as a different color.
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Re: 4 Cards not making a match

Postby Yvgni on Fri Jun 20, 2008 7:24 am

If you have the right scripts installed, or if you recalculate each "deal" of the cards, or if you are playing on a hardcopy, this is not the case. :ugeek:
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Re: 4 Cards not making a match

Postby detlef on Fri Jun 20, 2008 7:48 am

RADAGA wrote:Did anyone noticed that is WAY too common to get 4 cards, two of each color, making no change possible?


In a word, no. When I have 2 and 1 after 3, I find that I fail to make a set with the 4th card, oh, about 1 out 3 times. Give or take, of course. Imagine that. Of course, I also tend to find that I get crappy dice but no more often than I get good dice and no more or less often than my opponents do as well. Another head scratcher, I know.

Here's a nice way to look at it, though. Once you've made it to 5 cards, you are assured that you will make a set every 3 cards from that point on (unless you make one sooner and reset your stack).
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Re: 4 Cards not making a match

Postby dividedbyzero on Fri Jun 20, 2008 8:30 am

We should probably see if Robinette can weigh in here. I'm sure she probably has a "workaround" for the cards...after all, her dice magic is well known even though it only works if you can follow some very exacting and precise instructions.
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Re: 4 Cards not making a match

Postby tzor on Fri Jun 20, 2008 9:41 am

RADAGA wrote:Did anyone noticed that is WAY too common to get 4 cards, two of each color, making no change possible?


No. I haven't noticed at all. I have noticed that I've cashed in a set of 3 and then my next three cards also become a set. This always seems to happen at just the right time. In escalaing games this has saved my bottom a couple of times and in regular games this has delayed defeat or ensured victory eariler.

This has nothing to do with the fact that I have an entire deck of anchient Magic the Gathering cards by my bedside, honestly I just placed my box there because it was a convenient location to store them.
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Re: 4 Cards not making a match

Postby owenshooter on Fri Jun 20, 2008 11:17 am

RADAGA wrote:How common you perceive this to happen?

it isn't that common when you play mostly no card games and rely on strategy instead of luck.-0
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Re: 4 Cards not making a match

Postby Fruitcake on Fri Jun 20, 2008 11:35 am

owenshooter wrote:
RADAGA wrote:How common you perceive this to happen?

it isn't that common when you play mostly no card games and rely on strategy instead of luck.-0


Ahhhh, that would explain why I am at a loss regarding this thread.

Carry on.
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Re: 4 Cards not making a match

Postby Pedronicus on Fri Jun 20, 2008 11:38 am

I just wish the damn cards would go to the bottom of the pile. Makes things a little bit fairer.

If I hand in Siberia (Because I'm on it) and then i take somewhere for a card - I don't expect Siberia to be handed to me straight AWAY
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Re: 4 Cards not making a match

Postby Incandenza on Fri Jun 20, 2008 5:49 pm

If it's early in the game, or if a cash won't help me much, then I'm in in three.

If the outcome of the game's riding on it, then you might as well call me Two Pair.

dividedbyzero wrote:We should probably see if Robinette can weigh in here. I'm sure she probably has a "workaround" for the cards...after all, her dice magic is well known even though it only works if you can follow some very exacting and precise instructions.


I hear she's been working on the card issue, and also a plugin to ensure that everyone gives you all 5's in the ratings.
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Re: 4 Cards not making a match

Postby FabledIntegral on Fri Jun 20, 2008 5:55 pm

owenshooter wrote:
RADAGA wrote:How common you perceive this to happen?

it isn't that common when you play mostly no card games and rely on strategy instead of luck.-0


I thought that no cards relied more on drop + dice than anything else!
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Re: 4 Cards not making a match

Postby wacicha on Fri Jun 20, 2008 9:43 pm

I will state that if I have 3 cards it is almost always a set and with 4 cards 99% of the time I have a set
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Re: 4 Cards not making a match

Postby MajorRT on Fri Jun 20, 2008 10:55 pm

wacicha wrote:I will state that if I have 3 cards it is almost always a set and with 4 cards 99% of the time I have a set

Must be nice to be a mod....in the real world, 3 cards=set 33% of the time, on avg...4 cards=67% , and 5 cards=100% set.
This may not be exactly true since there are not the same # of red ,green and blue cards, but it's close (except if your a mod :lol: )
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Re: 4 Cards not making a match

Postby ParadiceCity9 on Fri Jun 20, 2008 11:23 pm

MajorRT wrote:
wacicha wrote:I will state that if I have 3 cards it is almost always a set and with 4 cards 99% of the time I have a set

Must be nice to be a mod....in the real world, 3 cards=set 33% of the time, on avg...4 cards=67% , and 5 cards=100% set.
This may not be exactly true since there are not the same # of red ,green and blue cards, but it's close (except if your a mod :lol: )


Not even 67% ;)
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Re: 4 Cards not making a match

Postby KLOBBER on Sat Jun 21, 2008 8:01 am

The OP states that the cards do not present themselves to him in the way that he expects them to present themselves.

All this proves is that they are unpredictable.

News Flash: The cards, like the dice, are designed to be unpredictable. Therefore, your attempts at prediction are supposed to fail.

The fact that your predictions are consistently incorrect proves that whoever programmed the cards to be unpredictable did a good job.

Are you saying that you want the cards to be modified to be predictable from now on?
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Re: 4 Cards not making a match

Postby MeDeFe on Sat Jun 21, 2008 8:04 am

MajorRT wrote:
wacicha wrote:I will state that if I have 3 cards it is almost always a set and with 4 cards 99% of the time I have a set

Must be nice to be a mod....in the real world, 3 cards=set 33% of the time, on avg...4 cards=67% , and 5 cards=100% set.
This may not be exactly true since there are not the same # of red ,green and blue cards, but it's close (except if your a mod :lol: )

Actually the number of red, green, and blue cards are the same, because the colour of card you get is random.
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Re: 4 Cards not making a match

Postby KLOBBER on Sat Jun 21, 2008 8:25 am

There is absolutely nothing "random" at all about what color card the system is designed to give you.

It is unpredictable, not random, and these are two wholly distinct concepts.

It is programmed to be unpredictable, and it is unpredictable by design, not by "randomness." There is not as much as an iota of "randomness" involved in the process that decides the color of the next card -- none at all -- not a jot, not a tittle. Nada.

All of the complaints in this entire thread only prove that the cards are indeed unpredictable. Does anyone else realize that that is as they are SUPPOSED to be?

Bottom line: Anyone who ever complains that their predictions prove consistently incorrect is actually testifying (unknowingly) to the fact that the system is working precisely as it is designed to work. The fact that they phrase these testimonies as complaints actually boggles the mind, for any sane person with a solid foundation in rationality and logic.
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Re: 4 Cards not making a match

Postby wacicha on Sat Jun 21, 2008 3:03 pm

Of course it is Random. being a mod does not mean better cards and better dice. But I think Attitude does. and how you play also does for example--

I play term,As soon as I have a set i DO NOT turn it in and I may not even go for another card. If I go all the way to 5 cards then I cash and start looking for the next set to Not turn in. That way I have it when I need it. So if I am sitting with 3 cards it is a set.

Same with dice you have good dice and you have bad dice -- But it is you that determine how many men you lose while attacking not the dice!!!
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