Conquer Club

In celebration of the amazing feats of the dice in the past 24 hours, I bring you some of the highlights from my games:

Game 2773451 - SA Port to French 1. 16v7 becomes 4v3. 1 in 177 chance

Game 2756681 - Eliminated, teammate broken. 7 stack army went through these provinces: 2 2 1 1 1 2. 1 in 200 chance

Various Games - 10 instances of 3v1, 6 becoming 0v1 in one night. 1 in 833 chance

Game 2773833 - S.Europe defence rolls 5 or higher on 8 separate dice in a row. 1 in 6561 chance

I'm hoping for better luck tonight. If anyone can correct my maths, please do so, but I believe they are correct.

e_i_pi wrote:

Various Games - 10 instances of 3v1, 6 becoming 0v1 in one night. 1 in 833 chance

I believe it would be 1v1 not ov1

But myself I love the dice. It is the attack button that needs to be pushed less.

wacicha wrote:

e_i_pi wrote:

Various Games - 10 instances of 3v1, 6 becoming 0v1 in one night. 1 in 833 chance

I believe it would be 1v1 not ov1

But myself I love the dice. It is the attack button that needs to be pushed less.

I'm quoting the attacking dice available against the defence.

I agree the attack button needs to be pushed less in most cases, but when its a cards game and you have 1 card in round 4, you have to do something to keep yourself in it. Or, when you have 1 province to go in your continent, and your teammate has your borders covered. Theres no reason to stop on the last dice, you may as well go for it.

I had another bad set in France map, lost 13, took down 5. I stopped before it became a situation that was guaranteed loss, which is the right thing to do, but at a start of 24v16, you don't consider stopping after 3 rolls that urn out 2-4 opponents favour. The guy still kept his second continent though. Not sure how I could have played it better, I only had two options... try to break him, or sit tight. Sitting tight on 6 armies per turn when next player gets 12 and I outnumbered him by 8 didnt seem rational.

Read my sig. Work out the probability on that Btw the 3rd one happened yesterday.

LFAW wrote:Read my sig. Work out the probability on that Btw the 3rd one happened yesterday.

1 in 141 --- 6 against 10 in bombard -> 6 against 1
1 in 14000 --- 40 against 60 -> 25 against 1
1 in 61000 --- 8 against 34 -> 5 against 1

Nice one. I was more commenting on the fact that these have all happened within 24 hours to me. I started writing them down after 3 weeks of eyebrow-raising results :p

e_i_pi wrote:Various Games - 10 instances of 3v1, 6 becoming 0v1 in one night. 1 in 833 chance

I think your math might be a bit off on this one. If you're just going to pick 10 occurrences from all the games you played, you could create any "odds" you wanted.

Timminz wrote:

e_i_pi wrote:Various Games - 10 instances of 3v1, 6 becoming 0v1 in one night. 1 in 833 chance

I think your math might be a bit off on this one. If you're just going to pick 10 occurrences from all the games you played, you could create any "odds" you wanted.

I was citing the 10 3v1's I'd done in the night. I don't do them often, turns out I had a lot of card games where I needed to. I counted the odds off the losses and not the wins, giving it an "at least 6 losses" probability. My maths is fine

e_i_pi wrote:

Timminz wrote:

e_i_pi wrote:Various Games - 10 instances of 3v1, 6 becoming 0v1 in one night. 1 in 833 chance

I think your math might be a bit off on this one. If you're just going to pick 10 occurrences from all the games you played, you could create any "odds" you wanted.

I was citing the 10 3v1's I'd done in the night. I don't do them often, turns out I had a lot of card games where I needed to. I counted the odds off the losses and not the wins, giving it an "at least 6 losses" probability. My maths is fine

Alright then. The way you worded it, led me to believe that you had just taken 10 instances of slightly bad odds, while discounting all other rolls.