Conquer Club

Out of curiosity - I'd like to know the chances of losing 21 v 1,1.

The site I use for dice statistics doesn't register the first one as possible
http://gamesbyemail.com/Games/Gambit/BattleOdds

Worst fucking dice ever today - never have I witnessed a shittier day for dice...

21 v 1,1 loses.
19 v 10,1 loses.
26 v 13 loses (he has 4 armies left) for killing orange (his last territory).
10 v 3 = 1-9.

Christ all happening today... how the hell does someone lose 21 v 1,1. I put it in a risk battle calculator and it said it should happen less than 1/10,000,000.

Ugh.

I'll figure this out tomorrow at work, haven't got my programs here at home.

FabledIntegral wrote:10 v 3 = 1-9.

I IS NOT UNDERSTAND!

RashidJelzin wrote:

FabledIntegral wrote:10 v 3 = 1-9.

I IS NOT UNDERSTAND!

Killed 1 army lost nine.

FabledIntegral wrote:21 v 1,1 loses.

= 1 in 9,164,962 chance

FabledIntegral wrote:19 v 10,1 loses.

= 1 in 18

FabledIntegral wrote:26 v 13 loses (he has 4 armies left) for killing orange (his last territory).

= 1 in 625

FabledIntegral wrote:10 v 3 = 1-9.

= 1 in 80

What programs did you use for that? I would like to know where to get them.

Uh, I used my stupidly expensive Maths degree and Excel.

e_i_pi wrote: haven\'t got my programs here at home.

Excel? I thought it was something more specialized since you do not have it at home, but thanks, might write a dice stats program in C# tomorrow if I have the time.

King Dain II wrote:e_i_pi wrote: haven\'t got my programs here at home.

Excel? I thought it was something more specialized since you do not have it at home, but thanks, might write a dice stats program in C# tomorrow if I have the time.

Yeah I just use Excel spreadsheets, but if the spreadsheets are at work, and have massive probability matrices... well, i'd rather wait until work than rewrite them at home hehe. Once I get it up and running I might publish it somewhere on the net, depending how I feel

FabledIntegral wrote:Worst fucking dice ever today - never have I witnessed a shittier day for dice...

21 v 1,1 loses.
19 v 10,1 loses.
26 v 13 loses (he has 4 armies left) for killing orange (his last territory).
10 v 3 = 1-9.

Christ all happening today... how the hell does someone lose 21 v 1,1. I put it in a risk battle calculator and it said it should happen less than 1/10,000,000.

Ugh.

Today seems to be your special day. Maybe you should hug a teddy bear and spin around 5 times. I would also lick a bowling ball just to be safe.



21 v 1, 1 omg thats shitty. You should really try the above mentioned steps.

FabledIntegral wrote:Worst fucking dice ever today - never have I witnessed a shittier day for dice...

21 v 1,1 loses.
19 v 10,1 loses.
26 v 13 loses (he has 4 armies left) for killing orange (his last territory).
10 v 3 = 1-9.

Christ all happening today... how the hell does someone lose 21 v 1,1. I put it in a risk battle calculator and it said it should happen less than 1/10,000,000.

Ugh.

I've lost countless times with better numbers than your last three examples- I couldn't begin to tell you how many. As for 21 vs 1,1- that reminds me of the other dice posts where they say they've lost 42 vs 1. Simply not believable- perhaps, if it were in a freestyle game you were autoed first. I'd like to see the game to see if there was a mistake somewhere.

http://www.conquerclub.com/game.php?game=2959578

It was acutally two separate stacks, 17 used first, and w hen it died, I tried using a 5 stack, and stopped when it became 2v1.

You also failt o realize these all happened one after the other, it's fine to have to damn occasionally shitty but for them to be virtually consecutive is ridiculous.

FabledIntegral wrote:http://www.conquerclub.com/game.php?game=2959578

It was acutally two separate stacks, 17 used first, and w hen it died, I tried using a 5 stack, and stopped when it became 2v1.

You also failt o realize these all happened one after the other, it's fine to have to damn occasionally shitty but for them to be virtually consecutive is ridiculous.

It looks like there were 18 armies forted W Europe the turn before. You dropped Scand- but the problem is... blue comes in and takes SA in Brazil- they fort to Brazil. Then you try to take it from S Europe ?

2008-07-31 19:11:15 - switching2glide fortified Brazil with 7 armies from Venezuela
2008-07-31 19:11:47 - kaiser0427 fortified Venezuela with 5 armies from Alaska

I don't think the 5 armies come into play because he didn't get the fort off to Brazil before time expired. But it gives him 12 armies + whatever he had there to go into Africa. He could've hit Europe before he took East AFrica. 4 seconds difference between the N and E Africa attacks.

2008-07-31 19:15:24 - switching2glide attacked North Africa from Brazil and conquered it from maxatstuy
2008-07-31 19:15:29 - switching2glide attacked East Africa from Madagascar and conquered it from FabledIntegral

There's an auto in there somewhere. He was certainly attacking in the area. It's so mathematically improbable. IDK

Scott-Land wrote:

FabledIntegral wrote:http://www.conquerclub.com/game.php?game=2959578

It was acutally two separate stacks, 17 used first, and w hen it died, I tried using a 5 stack, and stopped when it became 2v1.

You also failt o realize these all happened one after the other, it's fine to have to damn occasionally shitty but for them to be virtually consecutive is ridiculous.

It looks like there were 18 armies forted W Europe the turn before. You dropped Scand- but the problem is... blue comes in and takes SA in Brazil- they fort to Brazil. Then you try to take it from S Europe ?

2008-07-31 19:11:15 - switching2glide fortified Brazil with 7 armies from Venezuela
2008-07-31 19:11:47 - kaiser0427 fortified Venezuela with 5 armies from Alaska

I don't think the 5 armies come into play because he didn't get the fort off to Brazil before time expired. But it gives him 12 armies + whatever he had there to go into Africa. He could've hit Europe before he took East AFrica. 4 seconds difference between the N and E Africa attacks.

2008-07-31 19:15:24 - switching2glide attacked North Africa from Brazil and conquered it from maxatstuy
2008-07-31 19:15:29 - switching2glide attacked East Africa from Madagascar and conquered it from FabledIntegral

There's an auto in there somewhere. He was certainly attacking in the area. It's so mathematically improbable. IDK

That was after. We forted all that after I failed to take Europe.

2008-08-01 02:07:19 - maxatstuy deployed 3 armies on Southern Europe
2008-08-01 02:07:26 - maxatstuy fortified Southern Europe with 2 armies from Western Europe
2008-08-01 02:07:30 - maxatstuy fortified Southern Europe with 2 armies from Northern Europe
2008-08-01 02:07:33 - switching2glide fortified South Africa with 2 armies from Madagascar
2008-08-01 02:07:34 - maxatstuy fortified Southern Europe with 2 armies from Ukraine
2008-08-01 02:07:38 - maxatstuy fortified Southern Europe with 2 armies from India
2008-08-01 02:07:42 - maxatstuy fortified Southern Europe with 2 armies from Afghanistan
2008-08-01 02:07:42 - switching2glide fortified Iceland with 2 armies from Scandinavia
2008-08-01 02:07:48 - FabledIntegral deployed 1 armies on Greenland
2008-08-01 02:07:50 - FabledIntegral deployed 1 armies on Great Britain
2008-08-01 02:07:50 - maxatstuy fortified Siberia with 2 armies from Yakutsk
2008-08-01 02:07:51 - FabledIntegral deployed 1 armies on Southern Europe
2008-08-01 02:07:53 - switching2glide fortified Brazil with 2 armies from North Africa
2008-08-01 02:07:54 - maxatstuy fortified Siberia with 2 armies from Mongolia
2008-08-01 02:07:57 - FabledIntegral attacked Iceland from Great Britain and conquered it from kaiser0427
2008-08-01 02:08:05 - FabledIntegral attacked Ukraine from Southern Europe and conquered it from maxatstuy
2008-08-01 02:08:06 - FabledIntegral attacked Scandinavia from Ukraine and conquered it from switching2glide
2008-08-01 02:08:07 - FabledIntegral attacked Northern Europe from Scandinavia and conquered it from maxatstuy

I already had 3 on Southern to start so...

3 + 3 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 1 = 18 armies. Iceland was attacked by GB - a territory of mine so it didn't fall into the equation. Ukraine was conquered from Max as it was a single, and I didn't lose anything. I then had 17 armies to kill two singles left, Northern Europe and Western Europe... I conquered Northern Europe and had like 7 left (lost 10 armies). The 7v1 thus failed afterwards (or something like that, might have lost 9 the first time and failed on 8v1).

2008-08-01 02:08:12 - maxatstuy fortified Ural with 6 armies from Siberia
2008-08-01 02:08:21 - maxatstuy fortified East Africa with 2 armies from Congo
2008-08-01 02:08:36 - kaiser0427 fortified Alberta with 1 armies from Ontario
2008-08-01 02:08:43 - kaiser0427 fortified Western United States with 1 armies from Quebec
2008-08-01 02:08:57 - switching2glide fortified Alberta with 2 armies from Kamchatka
2008-08-01 02:09:02 - FabledIntegral fortified Southern Europe with 2 armies from China

You can see maxatstuy then forted me East Africa, which I was going to hit North Africa (a single) and then Western Europe to finish it off. However I went 0-3 vs North Africa, thus having 2 armies (which would only let me take North Africa and not Western Europe) so I didn't both to take it...

Oh somehow I was adding 4 armies onto the total (considering I had 5 armies) but I guess I only lost 3, so it was 20 v 1,1 not 21 v 1,1.

So I guess you're right in that aspect Scott... an "exaggerated" story. The 19v10,1 I believe was what you're referring to on North Africa... not sure but I think so.

Fble- I wasn't implying that you exaggerated... I question anything that is that improbable. Merely looking at the game to see if something happened where you got autoed at the same time you attacked or not. I couldn't determine anything from the log outside of the forts in Brazil and attacks made in N Africa. Surely you have to understand my skepticism.