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Speaking of Surprises...

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Speaking of Surprises...

Postby DoomYoshi on Tue Nov 18, 2014 10:00 am

So, we knew Abenomics wasn't working, but apparently Japan has been involved in a Ninja recession:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-30092633

But then, BAM, surprise election called:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-30092633

Now is a good time to review Abenomics (and triumphantly declare the universal truths of Libertarianism):
1) Stimulus packages: the idea is for the government to spend money to at least keep people employed. Usually applied towards infrastructure projects (as is the case with Japan's plan). In Ontario during the Great Depression, we built tons of highways. The reason this failed then (as well as every other infrastructure-oriented stimulus) is that it creates long-term cost on the government (and therefore society) in exchange for a miniscule (although measurable) increase in economy. The other third of this "stimulus package" (I hate the name, it really should be money-wasting package) is a sort of subsidy program for clean energy companies. Government subsidies ruin every industry they touch. India has finally admitted it is losing billions subsidizing rice, as well as every other country that has subsidy programs (except for a few with strict anti-defamation laws in which you are not allowed to talk about subsidies).

2) Goods tax hike from 5% to 8%. Obviously, the Japanese people stopped buying things out of spite. Good on them. I wish we had that resolve in Canada. I have been trying, and sometimes can go a whole week without buying anything but gas (I make sure to only buy Saudi gas though, since the poor Saudis need money to pay for all their 14 year old virgins).

3) The inflation goal has been set to 2%. Japan had deflation for the past while, which is a good thing. Until a handful of candy costs 1 penny, like it did in that book about the dog, we have not achieved proper goals.

4) More plans, none of which have anything to do with the economy, were announced last year.

5) Joining a Free Trade partnership is probably the best part of his plan. The agricultural sector has been opposing it. The small amount of Japanese land devoted to agriculture would be better suited as Shrines to War Criminals (just to piss off the Chinese). It's an island... only clowns think it should be an agricultural powerhouse.

The overall plan is meant to fail for a few reasons. The main reason is that growth shouldn't be a goal. If everyone got along fine last year, why does the national GDP need to rise? This is a sick interpretation of success in a country. The second major one is that even if you wanted growth (which no sane person does), growth happens in spite of economic policy, not because of it. When the best and brightest in the United States all became bankers, they also became leeches. They weren't creating wealth - they were creating numbers on spreadsheets. Only a banker will tell you that if you borrow at 3% and lend at 5%, you have created wealth. The best and brightest need to go into fields that actually create stuff, entrepreneurship and engineering.

Here is my proposed economic salvation plan for Japan:
1) Build a better military. It's time to retake Manchuria. It's always easier to steal wealth than generate it.

2) Make the goods tax prohibitively expensive. The whole lie that "growth is good" is fed by the fact that humans let their base emotions rule them and buy crap they don't need. The only way to escape this is to also appeal to their base emotions. In real terms, a 5% vs 8% sales tax doesn't make any difference to me. If the sales tax in Ontario was 300% (which it is on cheese) I would seriously rethink whether or not I need to buy anything.

3) Re-establish debtor's prison. Everyone who owes more than a month's wage gets 1 year in prison. Depending on how much they owe, forced servitude could be applied to them until the debt is repaid.

4) Accentuate the teaching of honor, morality and etiquette in school, starting from a young age. It's become lax in recent years.
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Re: Speaking of Surprises...

Postby owenshooter on Tue Nov 18, 2014 10:54 am

can we sticky this?-Jésus noir
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Re: Speaking of Surprises...

Postby mrswdk on Tue Nov 18, 2014 1:13 pm

DoomYoshi wrote:The small amount of Japanese land devoted to agriculture would be better suited as Shrines to War Criminals (just to piss off the Chinese).

...

Build a better military. It's time to retake Manchuria.


You're just pissed because I took your territory in our game of alternative risk.

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Re: Speaking of Surprises...

Postby DoomYoshi on Tue Nov 18, 2014 1:37 pm

More Russia will never surrender!!!
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Re: Speaking of Surprises...

Postby DoomYoshi on Mon Dec 15, 2014 6:01 pm

So the election resulted in a surprise gain. The communist party of Japan grew by 300% in this last election. Is this the result of stagflation? Will we see some epic Red China vs Red Japan war in the 30s? Stay tuned to find out.
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Re: Speaking of Surprises...

Postby Metsfanmax on Wed Dec 17, 2014 2:32 am

DoomYoshi wrote:1) Stimulus packages: the idea is for the government to spend money to at least keep people employed. Usually applied towards infrastructure projects (as is the case with Japan's plan). In Ontario during the Great Depression, we built tons of highways. The reason this failed then (as well as every other infrastructure-oriented stimulus) is that it creates long-term cost on the government (and therefore society) in exchange for a miniscule (although measurable) increase in economy.


Why are you confident that the effect on the economy is miniscule? Roads have demonstrable public worth independent of the short-term jobs program that building roads requires. They stimulate people to buy automobiles and it enables transportation of goods and people more easily between markets. I don't think you could just assert without evidence that the net economic effect is negative when measured over the long term.

The other third of this "stimulus package" (I hate the name, it really should be money-wasting package) is a sort of subsidy program for clean energy companies. Government subsidies ruin every industry they touch. India has finally admitted it is losing billions subsidizing rice, as well as every other country that has subsidy programs (except for a few with strict anti-defamation laws in which you are not allowed to talk about subsidies).


Government subsidies may often be bad but there are some counterexamples. The DOE loan programs office has invested in a number of clean energy firms and their loss of capital is 4%, meaning they'll easily make back more from interest than they lost from the couple of firms that ended up failing. I have heard it said that this is a much better success rate than most venture capitalists achieve.

If everyone got along fine last year, why does the national GDP need to rise?


What is your definition of "everyone got along fine" last year? Did everyone in your country get along fine? I cannot speak for Canada but there are plenty of people here in America for whom a little more money would be a very welcome thing and would substantially improve their quality of life. We don't live in a utopia where everyone has what they needs, and if progress/growth gets us closer to that utopia, then aiming for it is not "sick" but actually admirable.

The second major one is that even if you wanted growth (which no sane person does)


Are you stating that the people who believe in growth are literally insane? What is your evidence for this?

When the best and brightest in the United States all became bankers,


There's a very palpable reason for why many PhDs leave academia for finance -- there aren't many jobs in academia compared to the number of academic PhDs. If you want to increase the number of people doing science, you have to create more science jobs, not take away more finance jobs. Of course, we could do that with government investment in basic scientific research at universities, which I am sure meshes well with the above economic philosophy you've espoused :-)

they also became leeches. They weren't creating wealth - they were creating numbers on spreadsheets. Only a banker will tell you that if you borrow at 3% and lend at 5%, you have created wealth.


It is true that most of the people who argue that modern finance is socially beneficial are bankers, but that doesn't mean their argument (something about improving liquidity and increasing the accuracy of prices) is incorrect.
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Re: Speaking of Surprises...

Postby nietzsche on Wed Dec 17, 2014 4:23 am

Who cares, it's all a game.

Although part of the game is to get lost in it: distract yourself from what's really important to you with theories and ideas that your brain has learned to crave.

"Oh this is really important, I ought to learn this and when I master it I will prove to myself that everything makes sense.

Like a well oiled machine, you keep on going without ever asking what sparked you to move.
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Re: Speaking of Surprises...

Postby DoomYoshi on Wed Dec 17, 2014 7:07 am

Metsfanmax wrote:
DoomYoshi wrote:1) Stimulus packages: the idea is for the government to spend money to at least keep people employed. Usually applied towards infrastructure projects (as is the case with Japan's plan). In Ontario during the Great Depression, we built tons of highways. The reason this failed then (as well as every other infrastructure-oriented stimulus) is that it creates long-term cost on the government (and therefore society) in exchange for a miniscule (although measurable) increase in economy.


Why are you confident that the effect on the economy is miniscule? Roads have demonstrable public worth independent of the short-term jobs program that building roads requires. They stimulate people to buy automobiles and it enables transportation of goods and people more easily between markets. I don't think you could just assert without evidence that the net economic effect is negative when measured over the long term.

When asphalt road construction first wave (the 20s and 30s; even into the 60s); it was connecting lots of towns too small to warrant railroads so that would have had huge impact. Now the idea behind building more roads is so that more houses can be built. It's sort of a growth spurring tactic that is a Ponzi scheme. You get people involved in these construction projects so they have a job. People move into the houses. Where are these people going to work? Building more houses! It's an impractical idea. We get away with it in Canada because we still have like 90% crown land or something. Japan is smaller than Montana, but fits half the US population.

The other third of this "stimulus package" (I hate the name, it really should be money-wasting package) is a sort of subsidy program for clean energy companies. Government subsidies ruin every industry they touch. India has finally admitted it is losing billions subsidizing rice, as well as every other country that has subsidy programs (except for a few with strict anti-defamation laws in which you are not allowed to talk about subsidies).


Government subsidies may often be bad but there are some counterexamples. The DOE loan programs office has invested in a number of clean energy firms and their loss of capital is 4%, meaning they'll easily make back more from interest than they lost from the couple of firms that ended up failing. I have heard it said that this is a much better success rate than most venture capitalists achieve.

Meh. I'm a biologist, so counterexamples don't disprove my theories. I realize I'm a bit out of my league here; and still in they hypothesis stating period, but everything is based on observations.

If everyone got along fine last year, why does the national GDP need to rise?


What is your definition of "everyone got along fine" last year? Did everyone in your country get along fine? I cannot speak for Canada but there are plenty of people here in America for whom a little more money would be a very welcome thing and would substantially improve their quality of life. We don't live in a utopia where everyone has what they needs, and if progress/growth gets us closer to that utopia, then aiming for it is not "sick" but actually admirable.

The problem is that it doesn't. Growth always creates inequality, as the return on capital is always greater than the rate of economic growth. Quality of life, measured around here, is in how fast your "Phone" is, how many facelifts you can get, how many artisanal hamburgers you can eat. A subsistence farmer could live fine - even more so with modern technology. Imagine a company owned by a man who made exactly $50 million last year. If he only makes $49 million, he considers it a loss. If I made $49 million, I would consider it a gain. It is a sick mentality to think that $49 million in the black equates $1 million in the red. Yet this is the philosophy that is dominating the elites of the business world.
The working class is going hand-in-hand down this path, so they can't be excused either, but I think the top needs to change.


The second major one is that even if you wanted growth (which no sane person does)


Are you stating that the people who believe in growth are literally insane? What is your evidence for this?

Yes. The arbitrary measures of growth don't create real products. As TVs become cheaper to make (the whole first tv off the assembly line is the most expensive argument); the profit of the TV company, and therefore the GDP, shrinks. So the TV company has to come up with new products which are more expensive, just to maintain "growth". If there was a law stating that everyone had 1 television (or 6 televisions, or 50) and that they couldn't buy more then "the economy would shrink". How does that have any bearing on anything?

When the best and brightest in the United States all became bankers,


There's a very palpable reason for why many PhDs leave academia for finance -- there aren't many jobs in academia compared to the number of academic PhDs. If you want to increase the number of people doing science, you have to create more science jobs, not take away more finance jobs. Of course, we could do that with government investment in basic scientific research at universities, which I am sure meshes well with the above economic philosophy you've espoused :-)

Thinking of "many jobs" is part of the problem. I think the best and brightest have a moral responsibility to actually create jobs; by becoming entrepreneurs. I understand this is a probable point of contention.

they also became leeches. They weren't creating wealth - they were creating numbers on spreadsheets. Only a banker will tell you that if you borrow at 3% and lend at 5%, you have created wealth.


It is true that most of the people who argue that modern finance is socially beneficial are bankers, but that doesn't mean their argument (something about improving liquidity and increasing the accuracy of prices) is incorrect.

Improving liquidity isn't a great thing. It creates more imaginary money, and less real wealth. There is a reason societies around the world for thousands of years had debtor's prisons, and banned usury. What do you think that reason is?
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Re: Speaking of Surprises...

Postby DoomYoshi on Wed Dec 17, 2014 7:08 am

nietzsche wrote:distract yourself from what's really important to you with theories and ideas that your brain has learned to crave.


My theories are really important to me. Focusing on the inanities of daily life, from work to family to Conquer Club is not only unimportant, but selfish and prideful.
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Re: Speaking of Surprises...

Postby _sabotage_ on Wed Dec 17, 2014 7:30 am

Good post DY, but what's this about debtor prisons?
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Re: Speaking of Surprises...

Postby DoomYoshi on Wed Dec 17, 2014 7:45 am

_sabotage_ wrote:Good post DY, but what's this about debtor prisons?


Ok, after looking it up a) they haven't been used in the past as much as I thought and b) some states still use them. I was thinking of the ancient models of forced servitude for debtors as being equivalent.
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Re: Speaking of Surprises...

Postby _sabotage_ on Wed Dec 17, 2014 10:17 am

Ok, I mean, can you elaborate on the point you are trying to get at?

Debtor's prisons come from the government's ability to tax, and their ability to enforce the tax with forced servitude/conscription. As the nations became more capitalistic, the power was passed to the people, but through and for the government.

But I don't get the relation to usury laws, or your overall message.
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Re: Speaking of Surprises...

Postby DoomYoshi on Wed Dec 17, 2014 12:43 pm

_sabotage_ wrote:Ok, I mean, can you elaborate on the point you are trying to get at?

Debtor's prisons come from the government's ability to tax, and their ability to enforce the tax with forced servitude/conscription. As the nations became more capitalistic, the power was passed to the people, but through and for the government.

But I don't get the relation to usury laws, or your overall message.


We live in this fantasy world where fantasy dollars are acceptable parts of currency. This could mean many things, such as valuations in stock instead of cash, fiat currency etc.

I prefer to attack the most fundamental part of this fantasy - our acceptance of it. Part of this is that we live in a world where liability (and multi-million dollar insurance corporations) have replaced personal responsibility.

The larger part of this fantasy is that growth comes not through people earning more money and buying more things. Rather, it comes from people borrowing more money and buying more things. I look at countries which have federal budgets as %100+ of GDP and for the longest time I couldn't understand how anyone thought that was anywhere close to sane. Then I realized that consumers have the same debt-to-profit ratio. The debt trap is designed so that not only can you not escape, you also shouldn't want to. I would like to change the debt trap into a more defensible thing.

Here are a few steps I recommend:
1) End insurance companies
2) Eliminate credit cards, but still allow charge cards
3) Tie currency back to Gold; Publicly make any honor of any of the presidents who perpetuated this a hate crime No more FDR libraries or WW NGOs
4) Define growth as "Profit from Jan 1st" instead of "Profit from Jan 1st compared to last year's profit from Jan 1st"
5) Stop buying shit
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Re: Speaking of Surprises...

Postby BigBallinStalin on Wed Dec 17, 2014 1:36 pm

DoomYoshi wrote:
_sabotage_ wrote:Ok, I mean, can you elaborate on the point you are trying to get at?

Debtor's prisons come from the government's ability to tax, and their ability to enforce the tax with forced servitude/conscription. As the nations became more capitalistic, the power was passed to the people, but through and for the government.

But I don't get the relation to usury laws, or your overall message.


We live in this fantasy world where fantasy dollars are acceptable parts of currency. This could mean many things, such as valuations in stock instead of cash, fiat currency etc.

I prefer to attack the most fundamental part of this fantasy - our acceptance of it. Part of this is that we live in a world where liability (and multi-million dollar insurance corporations) have replaced personal responsibility.

The larger part of this fantasy is that growth comes not through people earning more money and buying more things. Rather, it comes from people borrowing more money and buying more things. I look at countries which have federal budgets as %100+ of GDP and for the longest time I couldn't understand how anyone thought that was anywhere close to sane. Then I realized that consumers have the same debt-to-profit ratio. The debt trap is designed so that not only can you not escape, you also shouldn't want to. I would like to change the debt trap into a more defensible thing.

Here are a few steps I recommend:
1) End insurance companies
2) Eliminate credit cards, but still allow charge cards
3) Tie currency back to Gold; Publicly make any honor of any of the presidents who perpetuated this a hate crime No more FDR libraries or WW NGOs
4) Define growth as "Profit from Jan 1st" instead of "Profit from Jan 1st compared to last year's profit from Jan 1st"
5) Stop buying shit


What I enjoy about your posts is that you bury a kernel of truth in a mountain of garbage.
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Re: Speaking of Surprises...

Postby DoomYoshi on Wed Dec 17, 2014 1:45 pm

What's the kernel in this case?
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Re: Speaking of Surprises...

Postby _sabotage_ on Wed Dec 17, 2014 1:48 pm

Money is just a measure of trust in society. Currency should be freely floated, and the US dollar has no place as a reserve currency. Gold can back to a certain extent beyond that.

What you're describing is China. People don't use credit, except for a mortgage. My sister-in-law bought a place in cash in Shanghai.

With a rapidly advancing economy, the things of old quickly lose value. People are incentivized to invest. Being a non-credit based society, they have the means to. Holding cash during rapid inflation is discouraged while investing in things to come is lucrative.

The problems arise when there is inflation with little development. The people are getting the big bucks but not doing anything. The transport system stays the same for extended periods, food actually gets worse while becoming more expensive. The US has developed in international services while chasing a globalized world, but left the localized improvements in the hands of those who have the most profit by keeping them the same.

The trust breaks down. That promise for something shinier loses its gloss.

People are herd creatures. We get in groups and do shit.

What the top of our little American pyramid has managed to do is get the world to carry the weight of US spending. Whereas if Kenya prints a trillion dollars, it is worthless, or hasn't added to their total purchasing power. But when the US issues a trillion dollars, it devalues the Kenyan currency.

When you get extreme pyramids which are supposed to aspire to the pinnacle of whatever the thing is, then you have to understand that the pinnacle of that thing might not be good. Instead of going from development to development, it more often than not is in the pinnacle's interest to stagnate and entrench the issue.

Qaddafi promised everyone a house, and he did it. Higher education to anyone who wanted it. If a country wants to pursue ambitious, productive goals, the only thing holding it back is people stopping them. People are herd animals and we do shit, mighty finely, but the shit we do is directed and it doesn't matter what form of currency you have, but if at the end of the day, the people of that country are willing to think that the ends are to their advantage, then they will do the shit they are directed to do. And they will hold us back from doing the stuff they don't want us to do.

Try not to get insurance and see what happens. Two little insurance goons will pull the ladder from under you. It's not about money. It's about how society works to move forward. The tool they have chosen to move it forward is money. But they have chosen it so that it doesn't move forward, but stays firmly in the hands of those who direct society.
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Re: Speaking of Surprises...

Postby BigBallinStalin on Wed Dec 17, 2014 4:35 pm

DoomYoshi wrote:What's the kernel in this case?


I'm still sifting through the garbage.

It might be 100% reserves (whose costs and benefits weren't discussed).
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Re: Speaking of Surprises...

Postby DoomYoshi on Wed Dec 17, 2014 4:48 pm

I wasn't talking about whiskey. You would know that if you came to the PL.
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Re: Speaking of Surprises...

Postby Lootifer on Mon Dec 22, 2014 9:39 pm

DoomYoshi wrote:It's an island... only clowns think it should be an agricultural powerhouse.

Erm, *polite cough*
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Re: Speaking of Surprises...

Postby BigBallinStalin on Tue Dec 23, 2014 9:44 am

Lootifer wrote:
DoomYoshi wrote:It's an island... only clowns think it should be an agricultural powerhouse.


Urghh, *polite cough*



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