NFL PICKS: Super Bowl Sunday

[oVo]

Why? Because he's the Head Coach and has the final say
in what goes. There's a stack of coaches involved which
also includes Offensive & Defensive Coordinators, but...
it's the Head Coach who takes the blame for successes
and failures of the team.

[thegreekdog]

Why? Because he's the Head Coach and has the final say
in what goes. There's a stack of coaches involved which
also includes Offensive & Defensive Coordinators, but...
it's the Head Coach who takes the blame for successes
and failures of the team.

Does Andy Reid get credit for the Eagles defense in the 2000s or does Jim Johnson?
Does Jack Del Rio get credit for the Broncos offense this year or does Peyton Manning?

It annoys the shit out of me that Belicheck gets credit for the Patriots offense. He's not an offensive guru, he's a defensive guru. I will be the first to give him credit for defensive success (and for head coach success: e.g. challenges). I refuse to give him credit for inserting Tom Brady into the lineup or for Brady's development or for the high powered offense with two tight ends.

[oVo]

Andy Reid gets credit where it's due, his Eagles with Donovan McNabb made a lot of playoff runs and reached a Super Bowl. The Chiefs big turn around this year with Alex Smith under center will also get Andy big accolades.

Vince Lombardy & Bart Starr, Weeb Ewbank & Johnny Unitas, Chuck Noll & Terry Bradshaw, John Madden & Ken Stabler, Marv Levy & Jim Kelly, Jimmy Johnson & Troy Aikman and of course Bill Belicheck & Tom Brady will always be linked.
Ben Roethlisberger, Cowher & Tomlin

[Timminz]

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland
Tampa Bay @ Detroit
Minnesota @ Green Bay
San Diego @ Kansas City
Chicago @ St. Louis
Carolina @ Miami
New York Jets @ Baltimore
Jacksonville @ Houston
Tennessee @ Oakland
Indianapolis @ Arizona
Dallas @ New York Giants
Denver @ New England
San Francisco @ Washington

Tough week. 6-7 (with a missed game). 87-56 overall.

[thegreekdog]

Andy Reid gets credit where it's due, his Eagles with Donovan McNabb made a lot of playoff runs and reached a Super Bowl. The Chiefs big turn around this year with Alex Smith under center will also get Andy big accolades.

Vince Lombardy & Bart Starr, Weeb Ewbank & Johnny Unitas, Chuck Noll & Terry Bradshaw, John Madden & Ken Stabler, Marv Levy & Jim Kelly, Jimmy Johnson & Troy Aikman and of course Bill Belicheck & Tom Brady will always be linked.
Ben Roethlisberger, Cowher & Tomlin

I don't think you're responding to my point. You seem to be making reference to various defensive coaches and offensive players or to successful coaches generally. That's not my issue. My issue has nothing to do with giving Belicheck the credit for the Patriots' success as a team; it has to do with giving him credit for the Patriots' offensive success.

When Brian Dawkins made an interception on a well-timed blitz, the camera went to Jim Johnson, defensive coordinator for the Eagles and gave Johnson deserved accolades. When Tom Brady throws a touchdown pass, the camera should pan to the offensive coordinator of the Pats, not to Belicheck. This is my point. Belicheck is not an offensive mastermind. He is a defensive mastermind and possibly one of the best head coaches in history. Stop giving him credit for being an offensive mastermind too.

[oVo]

[...] possibly one of the best head coaches in history.

I think that says it all, and I suspect Bill makes significant contributions
on both sides of the ball.

[DoomYoshi]

Andy Reid gets credit where it's due, his Eagles with Donovan McNabb made a lot of playoff runs and reached a Super Bowl. The Chiefs big turn around this year with Alex Smith under center will also get Andy big accolades.

Vince Lombardy & Bart Starr, Weeb Ewbank & Johnny Unitas, Chuck Noll & Terry Bradshaw, John Madden & Ken Stabler, Marv Levy & Jim Kelly, Jimmy Johnson & Troy Aikman and of course Bill Belicheck & Tom Brady will always be linked.
Ben Roethlisberger, Cowher & Tomlin

I don't think you're responding to my point. You seem to be making reference to various defensive coaches and offensive players or to successful coaches generally. That's not my issue. My issue has nothing to do with giving Belicheck the credit for the Patriots' success as a team; it has to do with giving him credit for the Patriots' offensive success.

When Brian Dawkins made an interception on a well-timed blitz, the camera went to Jim Johnson, defensive coordinator for the Eagles and gave Johnson deserved accolades. When Tom Brady throws a touchdown pass, the camera should pan to the offensive coordinator of the Pats, not to Belicheck. This is my point. Belicheck is not an offensive mastermind. He is a defensive mastermind and possibly one of the best head coaches in history. Stop giving him credit for being an offensive mastermind too.

how do you know he isn't an offensive mastermind?

[thegreekdog]

1980-1984 - New York Giants linebackers coach and special teams coach
1985-1990 - New York Giants defensive coordinator (1986 and 1990 Super Bowls)
1991-1995 - Cleveland Browns head coach
1996 - New England Patriots assistant head coach and secondary coach
1997-1999 - New York Jets assistance head coach and defensive backs coach
2000-present - New England Patriots head coach

Let's look at his record as a head coach (including offensive and defensive ranks):

1991 - 6-10; 16th ranked in points, 19th ranked in yards
1992 - 7-9; 20th ranked in points, 18th ranked in yards
1993 - 7-9; 15th ranked in points, 20th ranked in yards
1994 - 11-5; 11th ranked in points, 16th ranked in yards (note: 1st ranked defense in points)
1995 - 5-11; 25th ranked in points, 21st ranked in yards
2000 - 5-11; 25th ranked in points, 22nd ranked in yards
2001 - 11-5; 6th ranked in points, 19th ranked in yards (Tom Brady arrives)
2002 through 2012 the Patriots were never less than 12th ranked in points for offense.

So what happened between 1995 and 2000? Belichick didn't coach offense. He wasn't a head coach. Did he suddenly learn offense?

Again, does Andy Reid get credit for (up until two games ago) an awesome Kansas City defense? Why or why not?

[DoomYoshi]

show

big movers:cardinals continue their quick rise to the top; colts and bears continue to struggle

some notes about counterintuitive results: (e.g. why did the pats drop a point after winning a game against the number one team?) that game told us nothing that the model didn't predict already. it had the broncos winning by a field goal in neutral land; home field advantage is 4 points, which rounded up to a 3 point win. their stock increased only slightly. they only moved down because the rams had such a dominant game against the bears, a team that was considered better than average.

interesting number quirk: the steelers right now are playing perfectly average

[Lootifer]

Saints@Falcons
Jets@Ravens ... Its their win week
Steelers@Browns ... Steelers form to continue?
Panthers@Dolphins
Bears@Rams
Buccs@Lions
Vikings@Packers ... Rodgers maybe back
Jaguars@Texans
Chargers@Chiefs
Colts@Cardinals
Titans@Raiders
Cowboys@Giants
Broncos@Patriots
49ers@Redskins

Holy shit that was a bad week: 5-9
76-53

Packer@Lions
Raiders@Cowboys
Steelers@Ravens
Jaguars@Browns
Buccs@Panthers
Bears@Vikings
Patriots@Texans
Titans@Colts
Dolphins@Jets
Cardinals@Eagles
Falcons@Bills
Rams@49ers
Bengals@Chargers
Broncos@Chiefs
Giants@Redskins
Saints@Seahawks

[DoomYoshi]

half the teams playing today don't have cheerleader squads.

[Crazyirishman]

Lions
Cowboys
Steelers
Browns
Panthers
Bears
Patriots
Colts
Dolphins
Eagles
Bills
49ers
Bengals
Broncos
Giants
Saints

[Timminz]

Packers @ Lions
Raiders @ Cowboys
Steelers @ Ravens

89-57 to-date.



Jaguars@Browns
Buccs@Panthers
Bears@Vikings
Patriots@Texans
Titans@Colts
Dolphins@Jets
Cardinals@Eagles
Falcons@Bills
Rams@49ers
Bengals@Chargers
Broncos@Chiefs
Giants@Redskins
Saints@Seahawks

[Army of GOD]

tgd, I think a lot of a head coach's success is dependent on circumstance. You have the period where Belichick sucked with the Browns, and then the last 10+ years where the Pats are arguably the best offensive team each year. I think Belichick got pretty lucky with Brady turning out to be a top 3 all-timer, but saying that he doesn't get a good portion of the credit is a bit idiotic. I don't know how much of hte offense is his input and how much is Josh McI'm a piece of shitDaniels, but he is the one who hired McDaniels, so there's that.

Also, yes, I give Reid a lot, if not most, of the credit for the Chiefs' defense being hella better.

But that's the problem with all of this...I mean Mike Shannahan, even after the Elway Super Bowls, was a very good coach for a long time (I know first hand as a Broncos fan). Now Shanny can't even get a winning record in Washington.

It's difficult judging people affialiated with sports and their impact, especially head coaches. Like, was Matt Cassell really good in '08 or did the system allow him to be really good? How can Chip Kelly do so much better with the Eagles with essentially the same roster yet Reid had like 4 wins last year? And I still can't figure out if Tom Coughlin is a good coach or not...

[oVo]

Tom's managed two Super Bowl wins in the last decade.

Week 13
Packers @ Lions
Raiders @ Cowboys
Steelers @ Ravens
Jaguars @ Browns...Jags have won 3 of their last 4 games
Bucs @ Panthers
Bears @ Vikings ... out kicked in OT
Patriots @ Texans ...Houston came close in this one
Titans @ Colts
Dolphins @ Jets
Cardinals @ Eagles
Falcons @ Bills ...an OT win for the birds
Rams @ 49ers
Bengals @ Chargers
Broncos @ Chiefs ... gotta catch the ball if you want to win
Giants @ Redskins
Saints @ Seahawks ... Whoa... not the game I expected
115 - 76 - 1

Peyton Manning has tossed 40+ TDs and 4000+ yards this season

[Crazyirishman]

NO
CHI
PIT
DET
MIN- tie
KC
CAR
NYJ
HOU
TEN
ARI
NYG
DEN
SF

I went 6-7-1 on that week which brings me up to 106-68-1 for the season overall.

[Timminz]

NO
CHI
PIT
DET
MIN- tie
KC
CAR
NYJ
HOU
TEN
ARI
NYG
DEN
SF

I went 6-7-1 on that week which brings me up to 106-68-1 for the season overall.

I would argue that if you didn't pick a tie, you picked wrong, and so should count it as an incorrect pick.

[muy_thaiguy]

Well, Denver escapes Kansas City with the "W".

[Army of GOD]

God dammit, forgot to pick.

Anyway, the Chiefs suck and am glad we took care of business.

[oVo]

I would argue that if you didn't pick a tie, you picked wrong, and so should count it as an incorrect pick.

I suppose you could but it's sort of moot point, since it affects everyone the same. So however it is credited is the same all across the board. It could also just be dumped from the stats, since it isn't actually a loss either.

Seems best when marked as a tie ( 0-0-1) just to avoid confusion.

[thegreekdog]

tgd, I think a lot of a head coach's success is dependent on circumstance. You have the period where Belichick sucked with the Browns, and then the last 10+ years where the Pats are arguably the best offensive team each year. I think Belichick got pretty lucky with Brady turning out to be a top 3 all-timer, but saying that he doesn't get a good portion of the credit is a bit idiotic. I don't know how much of hte offense is his input and how much is Josh McI'm a piece of shitDaniels, but he is the one who hired McDaniels, so there's that.

Also, yes, I give Reid a lot, if not most, of the credit for the Chiefs' defense being hella better.

But that's the problem with all of this...I mean Mike Shannahan, even after the Elway Super Bowls, was a very good coach for a long time (I know first hand as a Broncos fan). Now Shanny can't even get a winning record in Washington.

It's difficult judging people affialiated with sports and their impact, especially head coaches. Like, was Matt Cassell really good in '08 or did the system allow him to be really good? How can Chip Kelly do so much better with the Eagles with essentially the same roster yet Reid had like 4 wins last year? And I still can't figure out if Tom Coughlin is a good coach or not...

If I had to divide credit, by percentages, for who gets credit for the Patriots' offensive success, Belichick would be in the low double digits (the teens or twenties). Belichick hired the offensive coordinator and assistant coaches (Charlie Weiss, Josh McDaniels, etc.). He did not draft Tom Brady. He did not develop the offensive game plan. He does not call the plays or run the offense and he barely pays attention to the offense in any event. Giving him credit for the offensive success of the Patriots (to the point of calling him an offensive genius) is absurd. He definitely doesn't get a good portion of the credit, he should have the lowest percentage in fact, and I'm hardly an idiot (at least when it comes to football). Did you know, for example, that the Patriots essentially run an offense developed in the 1970s?

Andy Reid does not get a good portion of the credit for the Chiefs defense. He also should not take the blame for the poor job the defense is doing now.

The Mike Shanahan discussion is a separate animal: the discussion of players vs. coaches and who has the biggest impact. I'm not arguing that point. I'm arguing that a defensive-minded coach who does not call plays, design plays, or have any direct hand in coaching the offense should not get credit as an offensive genius. If you want to discuss who is more important and why and how (players and coaches), we can have that discussion too.

[oVo]

I have to disagree. Head coaches piece the puzzle together
and have the final say on decisions. To downplay their part
and significance in how a team performs is absurd.

It takes players to execute any game plan successfully, but
we've all seen a decade of high level production from the
Pats. Their head coach's contribution in all aspects of what
they've achieved is undeniable and Belly will be voted into
the Hall of Fame one day. Genius or not, he gets it done.

The Giants started out terrible and even after a few wins
have a slim chance of reaching the post season. Their head
coach has caught a lot of shit, even though New York has
yet to start the same offensive line in any game this year.
Because of injuries they are likely to set a new NFL record
for number of different starters in a season.

[DoomYoshi]

show

The Packers dropped, Miami was the big winner this week.There is still motion at the top, but the bottom 7 looks pretty stable.

[Timminz]

Packers @ Lions
Raiders @ Cowboys
Steelers @ Ravens

89-57 to-date.
89-56-1 to-date


Jaguars@Browns
Buccs@Panthers
Bears@Vikings
Patriots@Texans
Titans@Colts
Dolphins@Jets
Cardinals@Eagles
Falcons@Bills
Rams@49ers
Bengals@Chargers
Broncos@Chiefs
Giants@Redskins
Saints@Seahawks

7-6.

96-62-1 total.



I'll take the Jags on Thursday.

[Serbia]

Texans @ Jags... is this the most useless game of the season?

Bollocks.