Conquer Club

So my wife manages the export of the seafood for her company (big company)....she has like 100 containers on the water (25 metric tons each) heading for Ukraine and Russia. Russia issues a food blockade and now none of the goods will be allowed in.....the million dollars of product is a problem for her company obviously, but WhyTF would russia do this? Don't they get like 40% of their food requirement thru import? Just to f*ck with Ukraine?

I see a real problem developing here.....I know a dude thru someone else that manages all the output of information for our armed services to the media / world....#1 he's about to die from stress and #2 it sounds like a hell of a problem is coming down the pike that Bobama just seems to be ignoring....again, WTF, over?

I think Putin is firing a warning shot across our bows. The West keeps hitting and/or threatening with sanctions (some enacted, many more threatened.) He's trying to say, "Look you idiots. Sanctions hurt all of us. We can all sanction the shit out of each other and damage everybody's economy, or we can stop this nonsense and start trading again."

Huh....just seems like the old "cut off your nose to spite your face" analogy....

It's possible he's doing this in order to incentivize his domestic economy into shifting more into food production. So, he could be anticipating future, foreign sanctions, thus mitigating their effects.

Why is he doing it? Should he sit around and just let the US and her allies sanction him and do nothing about it?

The Russian sanctions only target those who have targeted Russia with sanctions. It's like you punching a guy in the face and then complaining when that guy punches you back! What did you think would happen?

The US tried to say "Oh, there won't be any boomerang effects of our sanctions against Russia". Ha!

Russia doesn't have to rely on the food imports, you know Russia is a net food exporter, right? Certain items they'll have to do without, or find other sources, which is not going to be so hard for them. You think your wife's company is the only company that can provide the products that were slated to go to Russia?

Instead of blaming Russia for simply responding in kind as she has been treated, why not ask the US administration why we are involving ourselves in Ukraine? Never once in the entire history of the United States has it ever matter who is in charge or what happens in Ukraine. Why now?

Sanctions are an act of war, and this is economic warfare in which the US fired the first shot. US sanctions on Russia should end. Immediately. They should never have been enacted in the first place. Ukraine isn't worth this, and now, if you haven't heard, the government in Ukraine is threatening to impose a Russian transit ban on natgas. You know what this means?

Ukraine is no longer a customer of Gazprom, because Ukraine can't afford to buy the natgas and winter is only 3 months away. Ukraine will have to rely on getting loans from the IMF and the EU and purchase natgas from EU sources. To make sure that the EU, IMF will comply, Ukraine is threatening to shut off the EU's source of natgas. Most of the Russian exports of natgas to Europe go through Ukraine.

Ukraine is holding a gun to the EU's head and saying "you best give us what we want". Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face! And it's all because the US had to go meddling around in Ukrainian political matters.

I'm sorry for the loss of business to your wife's company. It's the result of the actions of the US government, though. All of this was foreseen by those who tried to warn that US sanctions wasn't a good idea. But too many believed the BS that Russia couldn't retaliate. They can, they would and they did. As they rightly should have, IMO.

Tell you wife's company to lobby the US government to end this trade war with Russia. The sooner that happens the sooner she can move that product off the docks.

Honestly I could care less about their loss of income and I certainly do not think they are the only supplier..the fat cat owner of that company can certainly afford it - maybe he'll have to give up his ridiculous private jet ..that was not my question...I was simply uninformed and curious....I appreciate the facts you have laid out.....very informative, and sad / stupid. As many have said before, our gov just needs to mind their own damn business IMO. Thanks again tho-

Cant the food be redirected? I could use a container ..

Tell your wife I'm willing to pay 1 cent on the dollar.

nietzsche wrote:Cant the food be redirected? I could use a container ..

Tell your wife I'm willing to pay 1 cent on the dollar.

Don't fall for this. When you show up, he's going to have a fist full of pesos for you.


--Andy

I'd just as soon give it to ya free brother..perhaps that's why I'm not rich yet..you hosting the party?

(I DO have your address )

KoolBak wrote: ..that was not my question...I was simply uninformed and curious....I appreciate the facts you have laid out.....very informative, and sad / stupid. As many have said before, our gov just needs to mind their own damn business IMO. Thanks again tho-

Oh, yeah man, cool deal. Yeah, the US and Russia are engaged in a trade and economic war right now. Your wife's company is on the front lines.

The US government has attempted to downplay what Russia can/will do, but trade and currency wars aren't a pretty business. Not quite as nasty as shooting wars, but the loss of business and protectionism destroys livelihoods and jobs. Not to mention that for all of the US' economic and military might, our debt doesn't allow us a lot of wiggle room and Russia's surplus of cash allows her to weather economic assaults. Which is partly why the first round of economic sanctions were ineffective.

Those first round of sanctions were designed to cut off Russian companies from obtaining loans. The problem is that the Russian companies targeted were flush with plenty of cash to meet all their financial obligations for at least a year. So the US is upping the ante and this latest round actually targeted Gazprom, which is quite stupid. But meh, it puts Europe in a more precarious position than it puts the US in.

The other day Mr Obama was talking about Russia and he said "Russia doesn't make anything" among other things. That was instant face palm material, a very undiplomatic and ignorant statement. One may not like Putin and Russia, but you don't go around disrespecting nations such as Russia like that. Russia is still a powerhouse, not on the US' level, but at least to the level of warranting at least a tad modicum of respect.

But meh, politicians can f*ck up a wet dream and they are certainly screwing the pooch with Russia. Unfortunately the one's who are going to get hurt worst are just regular people trying to earn a living. At least until the shooting starts. Then it gets downright ugly. Here's to hoping it won't come to that.

patches, why are you so concerned about the possibility of a shooting war between the US and Russia? Although the consequences are huge, the probability is negligible, so the risk is practically 0 (cuz risk = probability of event X * consequences of event X). If this scenario was the first Cuban Missile crisis, then such concern would be justified, don't you agree?

Not the first time this has happened to the Ukraine.
Over 8 million death resulting from the last food blockade/seizure...by Russia.

Gweeedo wrote:Not the first time this has happened to the Ukraine.
Over 8 million death resulting from the last food blockade/seizure...by Russia.

After controlling for the global increase in food prices before the Russian sanction, what's your updated estimate?

BigBallinStalin wrote:patches, why are you so concerned about the possibility of a shooting war between the US and Russia? Although the consequences are huge, the probability is negligible, so the risk is practically 0 (cuz risk = probability of event X * consequences of event X). If this scenario was the first Cuban Missile crisis, then such concern would be justified, don't you agree?

No, I'm not too worried about a shooting war between the US and Russia. Then again I don't have much confidence in politicians who have on more than one occasion blundered into war.


This isn't just about trade sanctions. There is the currency warfare aspect as well. Germany who has been lock step with the US pretty much so far in the treatment of Russia is beginning to waver if you read today's issue of Handelsblatt. Handelsblatt is as you probably know one of Germany's leading economic newspapers.
The chief editor of Handelsblatt, Gabor Steingart, wrote a stunning rebuke of Russian sanctions and he lays out the argument very well. The full article is in the link.

Steingart writes that the politic of escalation has no realistic goal. The reason the American's are so gunho isn't because they care about Ukraine, the EU or Germany's position in all of this, it's because American politician's threats and posturing are simply election preparations. He notes that when a Hillary Clinton compares Putin with Hitler she does so to appeal to the Republican vote, people who don't have passports. He notes that Obama and Clinton have realistic goals, to win elections. And where does that leave the EU and Germany? Up a shit creek is where, because they are feeling the brunt of the US' actions, which aren't for the goal of helping the EU, Ukraine, or anything else except to appeal to their own voters to win elections.

Steingart notes that demonizing Putin is not a policy, it is an alibi of a lack of policy.

It's a good read from the perspective of someone other than just the American perspective.


http://www.handelsblatt.com/meinung/kom ... 08406.html


And why does this matter? Because of the US' actions, Russia has taken logical steps. Greater ties with China which isn't good for the US in the long run to name one. But the most important thing is that to get around the sanctions which cut Russian access to US dollars, Russia has been building their own dollar exclusion zone, in tandem with China's.


You know as well as I do the lengths the US has gone in the past decades to protect the petrodollar status. Thus far it's been against two bit tin pot dictators. Russia and China are different animals all together, don't you think?

It's just dangerous is all and quite unnecessary. Steingart notes, kind of tongue in cheek, "Collective movements start in support of the sanctioned, as is the case today in Russia. The country was hardly ever more unified behind their president than now. This could almost lead you to think that the rabble-rousers of the West are on the payroll of the Russian secret service."

Which is a good point. If Obama's stated public goal is to erode Putin's power, then his sanction escalation is a complete failure, is it not? Putin is more popular in Russia than he's ever been. Probably to the chagrin of the Russia haters.

Main point, it's all foolish and I'm not very comfortable with blundering politicians (on all sides) rabble rousing while having the trigger on the buttons of the greatest military machines that have ever existed on dear planet Earth. People are already dying, after all, just ask the families of that airliner. And the response is to keep escalating? It's insanity.

Enjoying your posts patches.....

patches70 wrote:

BigBallinStalin wrote:patches, why are you so concerned about the possibility of a shooting war between the US and Russia? Although the consequences are huge, the probability is negligible, so the risk is practically 0 (cuz risk = probability of event X * consequences of event X). If this scenario was the first Cuban Missile crisis, then such concern would be justified, don't you agree?

It's insanity.

--Andy

KoolBak wrote:Enjoying your posts patches.....

Well, in a nutshell, this sanction business is a trainwreck-





Yeah, that's Merkel's smashed face there. Germany is showing the cracks as they begin to realize that they are just pawns and I foresee Germany jumping off the crazy train. At which point, if recent history is any indication, the United States will simply double down. And no one in the US is paying any attention to the rising Eurasian/BRIC/counter US Dollar axis. And that is the real issue at hand and has as implications that virtually no American alive at this time has ever seen or dealt with before.

It's uncharted territory and the politicians have all their maps upside down and those fools are the one's navigating. It doesn't inspire confidence.

patches70 wrote:
Steingart writes that the politic of escalation has no realistic goal. The reason the American's are so gunho isn't because they care about Ukraine, the EU or Germany's position in all of this, it's because American politician's threats and posturing are simply election preparations. He notes that when a Hillary Clinton compares Putin with Hitler she does so to appeal to the Republican vote, people who don't have passports. He notes that Obama and Clinton have realistic goals, to win elections. And where does that leave the EU and Germany? Up a shit creek is where, because they are feeling the brunt of the US' actions, which aren't for the goal of helping the EU, Ukraine, or anything else except to appeal to their own voters to win elections.

Steingart notes that demonizing Putin is not a policy, it is an alibi of a lack of policy.

It's a good read from the perspective of someone other than just the American perspective.


http://www.handelsblatt.com/meinung/kom ... 08406.html

.

Outstanding article. Thanks for posting that.

Yeah, no problem dukasaur.

As to my belief that this is about the petrodollar, and that the trade was is secondary, there is this tidbit that just came out today.

In Bloomberg is an article where they speak with one of Putin's advisers, Sergei Glazyev. Glazyev is Putin's chief Integration adviser. Maybe someone else can enlighten me on exactly what that means. Anyway, Glazyev spoke about the standard "American aggression" and such, but he did mention the real point-

from the article wrote:To further insulate its economy, Russia should abandon the use of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency, according to Glazyev. Russia, which international reserves are the world’s fifth-biggest, needs to diversify its holdings to include China’s yuan, India’s rupee and Brazil’s real. “If a country aspires to reserve status for its currency, it should behave properly, and that isn’t the case today,” Glazyev said.

(bold emphasis mine)

And Russia is making good on that. They created an alternative world bank to counter the IMF. They've entered into bilateral trade deals with nations by bypassing the US dollar and those trade alliances grow.
The end goal of these moves is to undermine the US dollar which is the true source of US power in the world, our petrodollar. A growing number of nations are getting on board with this.
And China has been working on this for years now.

A few weeks ago the French Central Bank was hit with a $5 billion dollar fine from the US for violating trade sanctions against Russia. The French economic chief responded with something to the effect that it's time for France to begin diversifying from the US dollar.

It's old history, but it was France who broke the Bretton Woods system to the point that Nixon had to abandon that system and slam the gold window which moved the US dollar to a full fiat currency in 1971.
DeGualle correctly stated that the US at the time had printed more dollars than there was gold to redeem. This was true BTW. At the time the US dollar was pegged to gold and all other currencies floated against the US dollar. That was the Bretton Woods system. At any point, any nation could turn in their US dollars and receive gold for those dollars at a set price. This is what gave the dollar it's value, it's why nations would seek out and acquire US dollars.

When France realized that the US had printed more dollars than could actually redeem, France decided to start turning in their dollar reserves. It began what amounts to a bank run and by 1971 the US had lost over half of it's gold reserves and more gold was flowing from our shores by the day. Nixon had no choice but to enact the so called "slam the gold window" and the Bretton Woods system died then and there.

It was replaced by the petrodollar. Nixon promised Saudi Arabia that the US would use it's military to protect the rule of The House of Saud if the House of Saud would allow only US dollars to be used to purchase Saudi oil. As the #1 oil exporter in the world and the fact that every nation on the planet needs oil, this instantly gave the US dollar value. If a nation wanted to buy oil it had to acquire US dollars. To get those dollars those nations would have to send goods, services or perform actions that the US wanted.

Saudi Arabia then brought a bunch of other oil producing nations on board and created a cartel that all parties agreed to sell their oil only for US dollars. That cartel is known today as OPEC. It didn't take long until virtually all trade in the world was done in US dollars.

Imagine the USSR not being able to sell their natgas because the parties buying them would only pay in dollars that the USSR couldn't use because of the Cold War? It is the petrodollar which finally brought down the Wall and shattered the USSR.

But the pendulum is shifting because US politicians drunk on the power of owning the Reserve Currency of the World. squandered the US moral authority all over the world. So we arrive at a point where there is true push back against the US dollar as the Reserve Currency. Even LaGarde (a Frenchwoman, BTW) of the IMF has stated that it's time for the dollar to be replaced.

The way we are carrying on with ourselves and our actions, when it comes time to decide on the new system, the US might not even get a seat at the table. It'd take too long to get into how terrible this would be for the US. Suffice it to say, all the things American's take for granted wouldn't be if not for the power of the petrodollar. We lose that power then we've got some really hard choices to make.
And then war doesn't look like such a crazy option, under those circumstances.

But it will be interesting to see how it plays out. Historic times indeed. Those living in the midst of such historic times rarely appreciate how earth shattering the events are until later using hindsight. It will be a rude awakening but one that is inevitable even if we try to ignore it.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-0 ... raine.html

KoolBak wrote:I'd just as soon give it to ya free brother..perhaps that's why I'm not rich yet..you hosting the party?

(I DO have your address )

But they will have to arrive by sea, I need to give you instructions on how to enter the bay, there are two inlets but only 1 is deep enough.

I hope it contains that crab fished in Canada, I've never had those.

For me it's all good. Putin announced this morning that he's banning pork from Canada. Pork prices have been through the roof this year, this should bring them down in a hurry! More for me...

@patches: I don't want to act too much like a worshipping groupie, but when you're right on, you're right on. Really great post, 99% correct and beautifully written.

Patches is right, but he is being a bit squirrelly as well. Germany has a lot of reasons not to ally itself with the US. Repeated spying, refusal to repatriate their gold, pushing the EU. The current spat with Russia is also not very recent. Putin had put his foot down on the US actions against Gaddafi, was ready for war last August in support of his ally Syria, and the displacement of the pro-Russian government in Ukraine is just the latest issue.

As to why he is being squirrelly. The US government has been positioning us for just such a war for some time. The eventual decline of the petrodollar was inevitable. It would have been in the best interest of the US to use the advantage while present to strengthen itself domestically and internationally. Instead the "leadership" left the US poor, incapable and friendless. We no longer have a manufacturing base and our service base will disappear with the petrodollar. The debt will remain. Just as the banks were rewarded for the defrauding the US financial services, the politicians will be rewarded for morally and financially bankrupting the US.

Just as WW2 brought in a new series of world bodies, this war shall do the same. The New World Order so hoped for by Bush Sr will finally come to pass. The US will be put in chains, Goliath brought down and the war will be used to justify the need for world governance. We are the fattened calf. We were put in a feedlot by our own politicians and cared nothing but for our next feeding.

We are being fed a stream of minor atrocities and just waiting for the one that will provide us with a sufficient excuse to take to arms. And we will gulp it up. When the US loses, and it will, there will be a special place waiting at the table, a sacrificial alter.

1. Obama sanctions Russia.
2. Russia sanctions Ukraine!!
3. Nuclear holocaust in Europe!!!!
4. Rapture.

Hegemon's don't always end in a bang, with massive wars. Often they end in a whimper. This could well be the case with the petrodollar. We just can't know how it will all go down.

In the US' case, instead of the US going with Bellum omnium contra omnes, it may be we just work it out ourselves. In that event, I don't think-

shickingbrits wrote:the politicians will be rewarded for morally and financially bankrupting the US.

but rather quite the opposite. More likely in that case the politicians will be rewarded with a rope. Which, I have to admit, would be in it's own way quite satisfying. And this scenario is quite possible while the world looks on with fascinated wonder. Like people staring at a trainwreck, car wreck or air show crash in progress. One just can't help themselves but to stare.

Meh, we shall see. I laid out what I think is going on and cited reputable sources to support what I think. But I have no idea how it ends.

Shickingbrits should go ahead and cite Alex Jones with this NWO talk. I don't know anything about a NWO except that it's used to incite people. To me incompetence is more likely than maliciousness. No need for a grand conspiracy when simple idiots in charge can accomplish the same ruin.