DICE PROBLEMS ??? CENSORED ???

[friendjonny]

now wait a second... I was a CC player who was always very annoyed by all these dice threads... especially the ones started by oggiss... but Ros makes a very sensible argument. I completely agree with Ros.

You see, the problem he is describing is one that can't be detected by a dice analyzer. The problem Ros is describing would have the following effect in the following hypothetical example of 20 vs 20 armies:
(the percentages are not real of course but it illustrates the point)
current CC random dice
attacker loses 19, defender loses 0 40% chance
attacker loses 15, defender loses 5 9% chance
attacker loses 10, defender loses 10 2% chance
attacker loses 5, defender loses 15 9% chance
attacker loses 0, defender loses 20 40% chance

random dice as reccomended by Ros
attacker loses 19, defender loses 0 1% chance
attacker loses 15, defender loses 5 19% chance
attacker loses 10, defender loses 10 60% chance
attacker loses 5, defender loses 15 19% chance
attacker loses 0, defender loses 20 1% chance

Both of these hypothetical statistics could happen with dice in which each number, 1-6, comes up the same amount of times. The fact that each number comes up the same amount of times leads many people to assume that the dice are perfectly random. However, as Ros explained, "These events are clearly coming from a computer file of which the 'random' computer picks the same row of (2, 3, 4 or 5) numbers because it isn't able to get others for a certain period." This would cause many abnormal streaks of luck for either attackers or defenders. Yes, it is technically fair since it happens to everybody. However, it does cause these abnormalities that really do take away from the game.

The recommendation that Ros made, calling each individual dice instead of calling rows of dice, would fix the problem. Abnormalities are possible of course, but they aren't supposed to be common. Currently they are much more common than they would be if CC had a perfectly random dice system.

Ros is right.

[Bean_]

The point of the ad-hoc groups is just to host private discussions between people that know what they are talking about, but everything that happens out here is discussed in private, also. So if you post a discussion thread about the dice, people in the group will see that discussion and carry any important ideas into private discussions.

The groups don't really have that much effect on everything around here, they are really just discussion groups.You can start your own discussion on the dice out here if you want. It would be exactly the same thing.

mods, feel free to correct what i have said if any of it is wrong...

Yes, I am in the ad hoc group and still keeping my eyes peeled on dice threads here. I am by no means an unabashed supporter of the dice.

[Bean_]

C. To truly assess the randomness of the dice, you cannot go simply by your (or anyone else's perception), for many reasons. As a human you are INCAPABLE of giving an unbiased assessment. You need to assess it with complex mathematical formulae.

D. By -the way, though no algorythm is really and truly 100% random in the mathematical sense to the infinit power, most randome generators are actually better than, more truly random than a human rolling dice. Is Lack using the best algorythm available? Who knows, but why wouldn't he. If blaming the dice, the algorythm makes you happy, so be it. If, however, you want it changed .. you better come up with something better than just opinion -- yours or 30 other individuals. Particularly untrained individuals

There is widespread misunderstanding on this point. Random.org claims to produce *true* random numbers, not like the pseudo-random number generator used in Excel, for example, which does use a randomizing algorithm. The assumption behind random.org, however, is that atmospheric noise is a true random event. I have no view on this. But that is what underlies the dice, not a mathematical algorithm (other than the algorithm used to process the noise).

[Bean_]

You are right about that psychology stuff but i'm not saying that in the end the dice don't turn out equally. After all, if there's bad dice then everyone gets this as well. So nobody will gain or lose anything on how the dice rolls at CC.

But better players, who calculate and balance out the armies well, won't be able to play the top of their game if the dice starts rolling ridiculously weird. In fact, the lesser players, who often think that Risk is a 'lucky dice game', will gain from an outrageous rolling dice because they play this game by just 'trying their luck'. And everyone can get lucky as well as unlucky, so the difference between the better and lesser players is getting smaller under the influence of this dice system.

Absolutely right, if the dice do not roll correctly. Except to the extent that your playing style changes to adapt to the possible badness of the dice, and then you get scared of your own shadow.

What you are forgetting is to remember the strange repetitions, such as getting the exact same 5 numbers twice in a row or the 3 attacker's dice will be the same 3 times in a row. This happens on a regular scale. And how high (should say low) are the odds on getting that ! These events are clearly coming from a computer file of which the 'random' computer picks the same row of (2, 3, 4 or 5) numbers because it isn't able to get others for a certain period. Also it often happens that on some days everyone gets better dice and on others everyone gets worse. These last events seem to happen because the computer skips certain 'files' for a long period because it doesn't get access to them for some time.

Can you provide proof, e.g., screenshots, of this? Part of the problem I am having is that I hear a lot of anecdotal evidence, but in order to show the powers that be that this is occurring more frequently than it should, we need something verifiable.

And the other dice system option is the one they use on Risk ll (CDrom) where each number of dice rolls separately.

Rolling 5 at a time could be a problem, or not, depending on how it is implemented. For example, let's say they are just rolled one at a time and then put into a long file, organized into rows of 5, read one after the other. This would not be a problem. On the other hand, if they rolled 1000 dice, organized it into 200 lines of 5, and then just randomly selected 1 of the 200 lines each and every time, it would be a problem. It's more like the former than the latter, though I don't think it's perfect.

[owenshooter]

To everyone else, if you would like to discuss the dice, please see this thread for how to join the dice ad-hoc group so that we don't have 100 threads to follow on the dice all the time.

twill, are you sure it is only 100? however, to the credit of the last 2 threads, both have been much more fact/stat/math based than the usual, "the dice f'ing blow! destroy the site! i'm never playing again! it's rigged for premium!" the last 2 threads have actually been enjoyable to read and made some interesting points. i'm going over to the link you gave in the hopes of more actual discourse than whining... good job!-0

[Beastly]

I swear that if the dice server gets better, I and my husband will both purchase premiums plus purchase 2 more to make up for the time lost.

I and many others are so very dissatisfied with the dice conspiracy. j/k

We will purchase 4 premiums. This is a great and awesome site, however the dice sucks.

[Vyk]

1700819

An example of how bad the dice are... Typical esc game, where I have it won... Final attack to collect 5 more beautiful cards and sweep the board... Hmm wait batman, what's that?

Tell me, what are the odds of me losing 17 vs 2....

Honestly tell me that. come up with your explanation of why my 17 should not be able to kill 2...

Oh, that's right, I'm the most unlucky person in the world right?

[Bean_]

1700819

An example of how bad the dice are... Typical esc game, where I have it won... Final attack to collect 5 more beautiful cards and sweep the board... Hmm wait batman, what's that?

Tell me, what are the odds of me losing 17 vs 2....

Honestly tell me that. come up with your explanation of why my 17 should not be able to kill 2...

Oh, that's right, I'm the most unlucky person in the world right?

1 in 6,849 -- a little bit more likely than losing a 10v1, but not that strange in the big picture (considering all rolls). But yes, definitely unlucky.

[friendjonny]

Can you provide proof, e.g., screenshots, of this? Part of the problem I am having is that I hear a lot of anecdotal evidence, but in order to show the powers that be that this is occurring more frequently than it should, we need something verifiable.

That is exactely the problem. I personally have noticed what I would term as problems, but to take screenshots everytime time I roll would be too time consuming for me. It is also something that the dice analyzer can't analyze... there would need to be a different program for analyzing this.

[Bean_]

Can you provide proof, e.g., screenshots, of this? Part of the problem I am having is that I hear a lot of anecdotal evidence, but in order to show the powers that be that this is occurring more frequently than it should, we need something verifiable.

That is exactely the problem. I personally have noticed what I would term as problems, but to take screenshots everytime time I roll would be too time consuming for me. It is also something that the dice analyzer can't analyze... there would need to be a different program for analyzing this.

Very good point. This is a diagnostic that may be able to be run at the individual user level. I will draw people's attention to it in the ad hoc forum.

[Ros]

My apologies Ros, I moved your dice thread to the Dice Ad-Hoc group to continue the discussion which had begun without all of the "Dice suck!" noise which inevitably comes from having dice threads in public.

I should have PM'd you, that was my bad.

If you would like to continue discussions on the dice, we would like to move them into the ad-hoc group and I'd invite you to join there as you have show a distinct interest in it.

If you would like to join, please PM me.

To everyone else, if you would like to discuss the dice, please see [url=http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=42170]this thread for how to join the dice ad-hoc group so that we don't have 100 threads to follow on the dice all the time.

Sorry for the confusion Ros
Twill

Thanks for the invite Twill, though i'm not sure if i will join this Ad-Hoc group.
I'm just a guy who uses practical information to create arguments using my common sense. I know quite a lot of general stuff about computers but i'm not an expert.

Also i doubt if Lack would admit the problems which can occur with the present dice system :

I don't see how it makes any difference if we waste numbers by using up 5 at a time. The numbers on each line are independently random.

As he said: 'the numbers on each line are random'....But i've pointed out several times already that this is completely different from real dice and that it seems as if files get stuck or appear double. These things could never and did never occur with the separate dice rolls in the Risk ll game.

And then there are the usual types who come with these replies again & again :

I honestly don't see this as worth discussing. Randomness of 2 digits is no different than randomness of 1 digit - and if the dice somehow defied statistics, that would affect everybody equally, thus negating the argument of them being unfair in the first place.

It seems to me that all these people just don't want to think about it because in the past players were only shouting that the dice were not fair. But i don't say that the dice are not fair, in fact they usually turn out equally in the end. I don't want to repeat myself again, so my advice to these people is to read my previous comments and also friendjonny's and Bean's comments.

In this thread i see a controversy because now it's not the 'anti dice system' players who are commenting without proper arguments. No, actually the 'pro dice system' players, also PLAYER57832, hwhrhett & acyckowski, have not commented on a single argument i've written. The only thing they are coming up with are the same old arguments which were used in older threads against the players who started shouting about the dice being unfair. Even Lack, who must be an intelligent guy, does not comment on my arguments.

But i'm not shouting unfairness about the dice. I'm just trying to point out that there could be a better system. So why all this conservative fear? Take Bean for example, who says he is a supporter of the dice on CC but still he listens and opens his mind to other suggestions and arguments.

At least i'm happy to see that there are some competent people in this Ad-Hoc group who can hopefully convince others that there are better dice system options.

[Twill]

Hey Ros, actually we are quite open to fixing any problem with the dice, if we can actually find where the problem is...our problem is that nobody can find WHY the dice seem to streak or be non-random and is why we started the ad-hoc, to delve into the actuality and the psychology of the dice in the attempts to make a better system.

The invitation stands, even if you aren't "trained" you have definitely brought up some well thought out challenges which should be addressed.

[JACKAZZTJM]

SHYTTTTTTTT HAPPENS stop bitchin about the dice its old and extremely annoying

[owenshooter]

Hey Ros, actually we are quite open to fixing any problem with the dice, if we can actually find where the problem is...

why would you do this?!! what would happen to all the dice threads?!! however, as i said before, the last 2 dice threads have actually been better and more informative and more substantial, than the last 50 i poked my head into..-0

[wicked]

You guys are welcome to discuss the dice here, we just don't want dozens of dice threads everywhere. A consolidated, informative discussion is welcome. Hopefully the adhoc guys will be watching as well.

[Iron Butterfly]

maybe we should roll the dice at our computer desk and use the honor system? After all it is only a game...........or is it?

[wcaclimbing]

maybe we should roll the dice at our computer desk and use the honor system? After all it is only a game...........or is it?

I just rolled triple 6s. what about you?


PS: thats the worst idea ive ever heard

[Ros]

I just found clear proof of the dice system screwing up :

attacker rolled 1-2-6 & defender 1-5

this was repeated 3 times in a row !!!

Clear proof of the computer picking the file 12615 because it got stuck.

The chances of this happening with separately rolled dice are almost infinitive. With a separate roll system the only rolls u could get as a result of the computer getting stuck would be 11111, 22222, 33333, 44444, 55555 or 66666. But in that case the problem could be tracked and fixed easily. But with Risk ll (cd-rom game which rolls dice separately) i've never seen any kind of repetitions.

This also to show everyone that i'm not critical towards the dice system because i lose from it. In fact, these 3 rolls were in my favor.

When this happened i wrote the numbers down right away before continuing my turn.

[lt.pie]

I just found clear proof of the dice system screwing up :

attacker rolled 1-2-6 & defender 1-5

this was repeated 3 times in a row !!!

Clear proof of the computer picking the file 12615 because it got stuck.

The chances of this happening with separately rolled dice are almost infinitive. With a separate roll system the only rolls u could get as a result of the computer getting stuck would be 11111, 22222, 33333, 44444, 55555 or 66666. But in that case the problem could be tracked and fixed easily. But with Risk ll (cd-rom game which rolls dice separately) i've never seen any kind of repetitions.

This also to show everyone that i'm not critical towards the dice system because i lose from it. In fact, these 3 rolls were in my favor.

When this happened i wrote the numbers down right away before continuing my turn.

i agree ros- my opponents dice threw triple 5"s at me 4 times in a row

[SirSebstar]

What I'd like to know is if it is in fact possible for the dice system to 'hang' so that they repeat the same line over and over. Unless I know more, I cannot make up my mind either way.

So far I feel it’s unlikely to hang, but on the other hand it sounds like its possible. If it is possible, well that’s bad enough to in itself warrant single dice, but what is to prevent them from hanging???

SO recap,
Statistically I have seen no proof that the dice supplier is not random, in fact it’s reasonably reliable. However if the method of getting that to work is not (e.g. it hangs) then its time to seek for a more reliable method.

[Bean_]

I just found clear proof of the dice system screwing up :

attacker rolled 1-2-6 & defender 1-5

this was repeated 3 times in a row !!!

Clear proof of the computer picking the file 12615 because it got stuck.

The chances of this happening with separately rolled dice are almost infinitive. With a separate roll system the only rolls u could get as a result of the computer getting stuck would be 11111, 22222, 33333, 44444, 55555 or 66666. But in that case the problem could be tracked and fixed easily. But with Risk ll (cd-rom game which rolls dice separately) i've never seen any kind of repetitions.

This also to show everyone that i'm not critical towards the dice system because i lose from it. In fact, these 3 rolls were in my favor.

When this happened i wrote the numbers down right away before continuing my turn.

Interesting. Was this auto attack, or three separate mouseclicks?

[Ros]

These were 3 separate clicks.

The odds to get the same 5 digit number are : 6x6x6x6x6= 7056 and then 7056x7056x7056= 351.298.031.616.

That's a chance of 1 out of at least 351 billion !!

[Bean_]

These were 3 separate clicks.

The odds to get the same 5 digit number are : 6x6x6x6x6= 7056 and then 7056x7056x7056= 351.298.031.616.

That's a chance of 1 out of at least 351 billion !!

It's a little less than that -- given the first one, it's 6^-5 for the second one and another 6^-5 for the third one, but still 1 in 60.5 million. Maybe we can test for identical rolls like you had though, because it should almost never happen.

[friendjonny]

I just found clear proof of the dice system screwing up :

attacker rolled 1-2-6 & defender 1-5

this was repeated 3 times in a row !!!

Clear proof of the computer picking the file 12615 because it got stuck.

The chances of this happening with separately rolled dice are almost infinitive. With a separate roll system the only rolls u could get as a result of the computer getting stuck would be 11111, 22222, 33333, 44444, 55555 or 66666. But in that case the problem could be tracked and fixed easily. But with Risk ll (cd-rom game which rolls dice separately) i've never seen any kind of repetitions.

This also to show everyone that i'm not critical towards the dice system because i lose from it. In fact, these 3 rolls were in my favor.

When this happened i wrote the numbers down right away before continuing my turn.

Now that is some interesting information. I will be watching my own dice rolls for repetitions. I will post anything I find here. I think Ros figured out what the actual problem is. Some of those other dice threads were no doubt people who knew something was wrong but had no idea what was wrong (I'm sure some were just people who were bitter losers)... and therefore came off as complaining jerks because they were whining instead of making an argument.

[TeeGee]

I just found clear proof of the dice system screwing up :

attacker rolled 1-2-6 & defender 1-5

this was repeated 3 times in a row !!!

Clear proof of the computer picking the file 12615 because it got stuck.

The chances of this happening with separately rolled dice are almost infinitive. With a separate roll system the only rolls u could get as a result of the computer getting stuck would be 11111, 22222, 33333, 44444, 55555 or 66666. But in that case the problem could be tracked and fixed easily. But with Risk ll (cd-rom game which rolls dice separately) i've never seen any kind of repetitions.

This also to show everyone that i'm not critical towards the dice system because i lose from it. In fact, these 3 rolls were in my favor.

When this happened i wrote the numbers down right away before continuing my turn.

Now that is some interesting information. I will be watching my own dice rolls for repetitions. I will post anything I find here. I think Ros figured out what the actual problem is. Some of those other dice threads were no doubt people who knew something was wrong but had no idea what was wrong (I'm sure some were just people who were bitter losers)... and therefore came off as complaining jerks because they were whining instead of making an argument.

similar thing just happenned to me... I normally don't pay attention to the dice, but the numbers that came up caught my attention.

I rolled triple 2 (2-2-2) 3 times in a row.. the last 2 times against double 6 (6-6)....unsure what defenders dice where on 1st throw but they were not doubles.

whats the odds on that? to roll 9 two's in a row?