AUS 3-way gridlock - Help needed!

[FiveCardArmy]

The situation: It's a three way gridlock on the Australia map. It's flatrate, but about 5 rounds ago I made a move so that no one can get an addional card without first giving up a territory. We each have 12 territores, whoever makes that move gives up an additional army per turn. Currently I get 10 armies per round, ahunda gets 9, and squirly gets 7.

Here is the game number: #1945307

Whoever attacks first is committing suicide by leaving themselves vulnerable to whoever is left with the most armies. I am really stuck on how to progress the game forward or how this will come to an end.

Thoughts or comments on how you would go about winning this game? Right now it looks like the person who goes on vacation first and misses 3 turns will lose, and the next player to take a turn attacks and wins. I am also thinking that in 10,000 rounds I will have ~100,350 armies, ahunda will have ~90,350 armies, and Squirly will have ~70,350 armies but I am not sure is this is a big enough differential to really do anything.....

Thanks in advance.

[FiveCardArmy]

8 views and no suggestions, so is everyone as stumped as I am? Dag!

[westsidekilla6]

i am

[detlef]

Well, I like yellow's position since they've only got 3 fronts and everyone else has more. Considering the fact that they're only losing 1 army per round to you, they should get relatively stronger by the round compared to everyone else. Red is in the worst shape because they're getting the least amount of guys and need to spread them out among 5 territories.

If I'm red, I force the issue because it is only going to get worse. You? I might do the same. You do have one attack that, provided you get good rolls, may not cost you a massive retaliation. That is, teaming up Port Lincoln and Coober Pedy against Adelaide. Provided you get decent rolls, you should be able to fort from those 60+ you have in Warburton to hold off the 20 some odd yellow has behind. Of course, if the dice go south, you're screwed.

The good thing about this attack is that red can't get to you either and he'll probably be happy enough just sitting back and letting you two go at it. If you withstand the first attack there, you might be able to continue leaning on him until you break through.

Once again, this move is only going to get harder and harder to pull off over time as he'll be able to put proportionally more guys on his main fronts than you are.

I mean, waiting it out doesn't seem like a winning play because you will continue to grow faster than the others and will appear like the guy to hit provided somebody gets itchy. Once again, considering that you may not be the strongest despite your troops advantage, that is a bad situation to be in.

[Plutoman]

My suggestion? Take Adelaide NOW. Before yellow has the chance to get bigger. Don't use auto-attack, regardless of how many armies are there, take the time and go for it normally. If you lose on the dice, it's automatic game, but taking that terit will eventually allow for the possibility of the second continent. Of course, that will be a ways down the road, but it is a serious possibility if you can take Adelaide now. But remember, watch the dice, you start losing out on them badly, and you will need to stop.

[FiveCardArmy]

My suggestion? Take Adelaide NOW.

I am taking this route. I think both of you guys make a compelling argument for this. Now I have a two man army count lead each turn. I only fear some retaliation coming my way, if he decides to suicide or revenge attack for taking Adelaide. I guess we see what happens.

[FiveCardArmy]

Well I have taken Adelaide, but I dont think its quite enough to have change the game that much. I more or less kicked the beee hive and now have yellow wanting Adelaide back, his bottle has been taken away and now he is screaming. If this continues Red will get stronger by default. Not sure what to do next........ suggestions appreciated.

[Plutoman]

Hmmm... If he's overreacting to the attack, then I'm not sure what you can do.

What would be good is to get the troops to take the last territory in Southern Australia, to gain the continent and a decisive bonus in men over the other two. If yellow is fanatical in defending it, it might be hard though.

From what I see on the map, yellow can't defend against you taking that territory beyond the troops he already has there. BUT, taking that could also make you a target from red. So, I'm not sure what else you can do. Except wait for some better advice, of course

[detlef]

Well I have taken Adelaide, but I dont think its quite enough to have change the game that much. I more or less kicked the beee hive and now have yellow wanting Adelaide back, his bottle has been taken away and now he is screaming. If this continues Red will get stronger by default. Not sure what to do next........ suggestions appreciated.

Well, there's not much sense in just taking Adelaide and then standing pat. Obviously you need to push forward because yellow is going to regroup and push back at some point. If you keep the pressure on, he won't be able to do so and remember, now you're the only one gaining cards.

[FiveCardArmy]

Ok, status update. I have pushed forward and now hold two continents. Current layout you can see below. We went from a 3-way even dead lock in armies to what you see below:

Player / Excess Armies
Me (Pink) / 145
Yellow / 217
Red / 327

Currently I am the weakest link, but I have the long term advantage IF I can hold onto what I have seized. Every turn I get 14 vs 8 and 7 for my opponents for yellow and red. By holding two continents I am sure I made myself a target despite being the weakest. Hopefully my opponents dont attack out of fear I weakening themselves for the third player. Lets see if this strat works.

Would you have chosen a different path? Strategy going forward? thoughts appreciated?

[bbqpenguin]

i think you got, it, hang on to those terry's and pray they don't do the math and realize you're gaining way more than them quickly. you may want to consider taking a few potshots around the edges- not enough for anyone to notice, but maybe a couple attacks on each border. statistically, the odds favor the attacker especially when large amounts like this are used. over time, you "should" start making a significant dent

[Iron Butterfly]

some times you have to poop or get off the pot.

The best strat is to whittle away little by little. If no one does anything the log jam gets worse. If one goes all out to take a land you weaken your self. This is the type of game where dice discipline is needed...and lots of luck. Hopefully you can get a positive dice run.

This is one of those bad scenarios where the more no one does anything the worse the problem becomes.
become the solution...be the dice.breathe ..attack..breathe..attack. Heh good luck.

[killmanic]

hey all you have to do is get more armies then either of them by a decent # which is going to happen, say wait till you have about 1000 guys, and remember that attackers have the advantage, so go for it and hopefully the edge and all the extra armies will be enough for a victory

[Squirly]

You should hit yellow with all your might!!!!!

[ahunda]

You should hit yellow with all your might!!!!!

lol

[oVo]

Looking at where the game is now... Pink is in good shape with the best bonus (2x Red's) and will gain ground over time, but Yellow is in survival mode. So the deadlock won't last too long. Red has the most reserve armies and I'd take make use of that advantage before it's gone by testing the waters every turn against Lake Eyre/Broken Hill/etc. and looking to take action any time that some hot dice show up.