economy on crashcourse?

[waauw]

You guys should all check this youtube video out. It explains very well what has actually been going on in the world of economics these past few years. I hope that to you, who are still oblivious to the surrounding circumstances, will finally understand some of the real structural problems that we face today.



I myself have been convinced for several years now of the fact that we are about to enter a new era. Of course as so often in history, the cross-over between two era's almost always happens chaotically. Good examples of this are the periods around the french revolution and the great depression, where wars were waged as a consequence of financial and economic turmoil.

What do you guys think? Economic recovery or economic collapse?

[ooge]

You guys should all check this youtube video out. It explains very well what has actually been going on in the world of economics these past few years. I hope that to you, who are still oblivious to the surrounding circumstances, will finally understand some of the real structural problems that we face today.



I myself have been convinced for several years now of the fact that we are about to enter a new era. Of course as so often in history, the cross-over between two era's almost always happens chaotically. Good examples of this are the periods around the french revolution and the great depression, where wars were waged as a consequence of financial and economic turmoil.

What do you guys think? Economic recovery or economic collapse?

I did not watch the video,but to much austerity to quickly has historically lead to an economic collapse.my guess 2 years.

[waauw]

I did not watch the video,but to much austerity to quickly has historically lead to an economic collapse.my guess 2 years.

That is true, however printing doesn't really seem to work either. It'll be interesting to see what type of crash and crisis we'll get. My bet is on hyperinflation, I just don't think banks can even take deflation.

[Phatscotty]

My initial response was going to be "well yah! since 1913!" But then there is also something to be said about the New Deal Socialist takeover, so yah! since 1933 when the gold was confiscated! but it's still bigger than that, with the entitlement explosion of the 60's and the further and further expansion of the welfare state.

There were a few periods when we tried to roll it back, such as the "normalcy" of the 20's, the return of free market ideas of the government controlled economy in the late 40's-50's, a pause in the 80's.

But yes, overall, it really does all trace back to 1913 and the Central Bank and the illusion that you can create money from thin air. Of course it did not happen like that overnight with a stroke of a pen, and took until the 60's for us to finally drop our gold standard, but I think that was the Bank's purpose.



Overall I think there is still a much bigger picture, and while I do not understand the entire story or have all the pieces to call it a theory, I think the British Empire/Illuminati/whatever you want to call it finally did find a way to impose it's hegemony on the USA and harness and steer America to it's will, and whittle away and destroy our Independence, and drive us into dependency.

[BigBallinStalin]

You guys should all check this youtube video out. It explains very well what has actually been going on in the world of economics these past few years. I hope that to you, who are still oblivious to the surrounding circumstances, will finally understand some of the real structural problems that we face today.



I myself have been convinced for several years now of the fact that we are about to enter a new era. Of course as so often in history, the cross-over between two era's almost always happens chaotically. Good examples of this are the periods around the french revolution and the great depression, where wars were waged as a consequence of financial and economic turmoil.

What do you guys think? Economic recovery or economic collapse?

I did not watch the video,but to much austerity to quickly has historically lead to an economic collapse.my guess 2 years.

How do you know?

[BigBallinStalin]

I did not watch the video,but to much austerity to quickly has historically lead to an economic collapse.my guess 2 years.

That is true, however printing doesn't really seem to work either. It'll be interesting to see what type of crash and crisis we'll get. My bet is on hyperinflation, I just don't think banks can even take deflation.

If the European countries can significantly curtail their deficit spending without relying too heavily on taxation--(which they are and will be, since it's the politically cheapest route), then they'll be able to resolve some of the long-term problem.

They also need to restructure their labor markets (change the labor laws, which currently favor inefficiency, hence are costly and/or support overvalued avenues of work). This kind of reform is politically unprofitable--even though in the long-run it would improve their economies.

Instead, the EU (and arguably the US but for different reasons) have been 'kicking the can down the road'. As the IMF, ECB, and their governments push for lower interests, they also get lower costs of government borrowing. The hope is that this will give them some breathing room to implement the necessary changes, but since politicians and the electorate are pretty much self-interested, then change for the better is viewed as too costly in the short-run. So, the dilemma will continue.

They're stuck, but eventually participants in the markets will readjust to their stupidity (i.e. "regime uncertainty" becomes more certain, thus allowing people to better project their expected profit and loss). Then we'll see some gains, or at least stagnation.

Economic Rhetoric
(Of course, the standard measurement for "economic progress" is GDP, which counts government taxation/spending as positive. As the government cuts its spending, then you'll see a 'drop' in GDP. If conditions are stable enough (this depends on government policy), and if the decreased spending leads to decreased taxation, then more money is freed up for the private sector, which eventually reflects itself as an increase in GDP. We've seen this in the postwar transition phase of the US economy from 1945-1947. GDP was decreasing, yet things were actually improving.

The Problem with the Electorate
Another problem is that people have been strongly dependent on past government spending. Their governments have been propping up inefficient industries and business practices as well, so when the rug gets pulled out (because people are betting correctly on the instability and unsustainable of those governments), then the public gets upset. Their previously standards of living were temporary since they were not properly driven by market activity but instead by government activity (labor laws, taxation and spending, etc.).

The problem is that (1) they don't realize this and/or (2) they don't want to live without their government dependence--regardless of the costs it imposes on others and in the long-run, so they'll aggravate the situation by calling for the 'good ol days', which led themselves to their current problem.