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Re: The end of the world..?

Postby Falkomagno on Thu Oct 31, 2013 8:47 am

PLAYER57832 wrote:Except, despite all that technological advancement, we have seen very little, almost no, biological change to humanity in that time.


Well, maybe evolution should not be considered solely in the realm of biology. There is other spheres that can have great impact in a specie survival, beyond the biological one.


oVo wrote:
Falkomagno wrote:in a reasonable period of time we will be able to "evolve" further


People on this planet have not evolved far enough to co-exist in a civil manner or be caring stewards of the ecosystem we share with other living things. So pushing technology towards dreams of inhabiting other regions of the galaxy is kind of silly. The basic global issues of hunger, habitat, equality and fair government won't even be resolved in our lifetime. The "intelligent beings" of this planet still have a lot of evolving to do.


I don't think is that black and white. At certain extend, we coexist better than before. Think for example in the concept of human rights, or multilateral institutions to solve countries disputes (UN). Of course, that doesn't means that we live in a perfect world, but it can be interpreted as a sign of advance, despite setbacks.

And of course, the solely notion of inhabiting other planets, sounds silly, and you can support that opinion with what we know about astrophysics today. But, of course the idea of people flying all over the world could also sounded silly 200 years ago, or the idea of having access to all the human knowledge from a screen in your house also could sound silly as soon as 50 years ago

BigBallinStalin wrote:You'd be interested in Tyler Cowen's Average is Over and The Great Stagnation. He's basically arguing in the TGS that the low-hanging fruit of technological advancement have practically been picked already, so we'll be experiencing greater costs of advancing technologically (which slows down growth), thus obtaining less and less great breakthroughs.

On the other hand, the problem lies in education--in that people are being educated in the wrong areas, e.g. the waiter with the Master's degree---hell, even an undergrad degree.

There's also the problem of regulation, which unsurprisingly will be ineffectively produced and enforced, but will have no problem expanding and imposing its burdens on others. There's a long list of how easily governments can mess it up for everyone. There's also climate change which may hamper growth in some areas while increasing it in others (who knows). etc. etc.



As humanity, we don't have a consensus in, let's say, anything. Every point can be disputed, every political, social, economical position has counter position diametrically opposed. So, the question of what will happen with the world, concerning humanity, can have multiple points, in the field of pure speculation. What I see is that is plausible to foresee a possibility of survive as a species, beyond the Earth. But, as you can see, the idea (not even the plausibility) is something that for some people is not even desirable, like "why do we have to pollute other planets".
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Re: The end of the world..?

Postby betiko on Thu Oct 31, 2013 9:17 am

I think at some point the human will have to upgrade itself genetically "gattaca" style. A few cybernetics implants as well; improve in knowledge and technology to try and continue surviving somewhere else when the time will come.
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Re: The end of the world..?

Postby BigBallinStalin on Thu Oct 31, 2013 10:08 am

Falkomagno wrote:
BigBallinStalin wrote:You'd be interested in Tyler Cowen's Average is Over and The Great Stagnation. He's basically arguing in the TGS that the low-hanging fruit of technological advancement have practically been picked already, so we'll be experiencing greater costs of advancing technologically (which slows down growth), thus obtaining less and less great breakthroughs.

On the other hand, the problem lies in education--in that people are being educated in the wrong areas, e.g. the waiter with the Master's degree---hell, even an undergrad degree.

There's also the problem of regulation, which unsurprisingly will be ineffectively produced and enforced, but will have no problem expanding and imposing its burdens on others. There's a long list of how easily governments can mess it up for everyone. There's also climate change which may hamper growth in some areas while increasing it in others (who knows). etc. etc.



As humanity, we don't have a consensus in, let's say, anything. Every point can be disputed, every political, social, economical position has counter position diametrically opposed. So, the question of what will happen with the world, concerning humanity, can have multiple points, in the field of pure speculation. What I see is that is plausible to foresee a possibility of survive as a species, beyond the Earth. But, as you can see, the idea (not even the plausibility) is something that for some people is not even desirable, like "why do we have to pollute other planets".



Well, sure, anything can be disputed, but a criteria for cutting through nonsense is an adherence to logic and the means for determining soundness. The Earth is round; evolutionary theory holds; the theory of gravity is correct, but you'll always have idiots arguing otherwise. Pure speculation can also be divided into 'nonsense' and 'the plausible' too.

And so what if some people don't desire humans leaving Earth? It's not up to them, nor should it be. Everyone is willing to make some trade-off between some degree of pollution and all other goods; therefore, given low costs of intergalactic colonization and terraforming, you'll have a large opportunity set of planets varying in pollution (some may have none, yet with humans on it). That's why I'm not really concerned about your last sentence.
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Re: The end of the world..?

Postby mrswdk on Thu Oct 31, 2013 10:36 am

I would dispute that.
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Re: The end of the world..?

Postby Metsfanmax on Thu Oct 31, 2013 10:40 am

How can anyone who has seen The Terminator really question how humanity will end?
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Re: The end of the world..?

Postby BigBallinStalin on Thu Oct 31, 2013 11:29 am

RE: The Terminator scenario,

It's a problem worth thinking about. If machines become good enough substitutes for humans, thus the possibilities of gains from trade with humans approach zero (or become less than simply replacing all humans with machines), then it would make sense for the machines/cyborgs/whatever to begin exterminating or enslaving us.

Then again, if there are any cyborg economists, they might not seek the corner solution (enslave/eliminate all humans) since the marginal costs of doing so would offset the marginal benefits; therefore, it wouldn't be profit-maximizing to attempt to eliminate/enslave additional humans.

Of course, I'm assuming that the machines would have no moral compunctions whatsoever, but this could be incorrect. Morality could constrain this scenario--or it could justify it (e.g. they could adopt a racist morality, where machines are superior to humans--which might actually be correct. :P ).
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Re: The end of the world..?

Postby mrswdk on Thu Oct 31, 2013 1:01 pm

So the Hate Weeks of the future will involve robots instead of Muslims?

Or Muslim robots??

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Re: The end of the world..?

Postby AndyDufresne on Thu Oct 31, 2013 1:46 pm

Metsfanmax wrote:How can anyone who has seen The Terminator really question how humanity will end?


Silly, we will live in harmony with most robots. They won't have to 'Kill all humans, kill all humans.'

No, our undoing will be much more boothy.

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Re: The end of the world..?

Postby Anarkistsdream on Thu Oct 31, 2013 1:48 pm

Great gif!
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Re: The end of the world..?

Postby hahaha3hahaha on Thu Oct 31, 2013 4:03 pm

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Re: The end of the world..?

Postby Dukasaur on Sun Nov 03, 2013 11:41 am

hahaha3hahaha wrote:iRobot is like terminator but with an imputed moral code for the robots. Didn't work out so well... (yeah, I'm aware it's a movie, still interesting to see it unfold though)

The movie was based on a book by Isaac Asimov, and that book was in fact only one of several books that Asimov wrote on the subject.

The movie doesn't explore the subject fully, but if you read the books there is a very thorough exploration of the idea and problems of cyberethics. The books with "robot" in the title are an obvious place to start, but I would recommend not-so-obvious books like The Naked Sun also.
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Re: The end of the world..?

Postby Dukasaur on Sun Nov 03, 2013 11:43 am

BigBallinStalin wrote:RE: The Terminator scenario,

It's a problem worth thinking about. If machines become good enough substitutes for humans, thus the possibilities of gains from trade with humans approach zero (or become less than simply replacing all humans with machines), then it would make sense for the machines/cyborgs/whatever to begin exterminating or enslaving us.

Then again, if there are any cyborg economists, they might not seek the corner solution (enslave/eliminate all humans) since the marginal costs of doing so would offset the marginal benefits; therefore, it wouldn't be profit-maximizing to attempt to eliminate/enslave additional humans.

Of course, I'm assuming that the machines would have no moral compunctions whatsoever, but this could be incorrect. Morality could constrain this scenario--or it could justify it (e.g. they could adopt a racist morality, where machines are superior to humans--which might actually be correct. :P ).

I know you're not a fan of post-scarcity economics, but it's an idea worth exploring. If the machines needs are vanishingly small relative to their production, then the expense of keeping humans is just another way to throw around the excess wealth, much in the same way as humans keep cats.
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Re: The end of the world..?

Postby mrswdk on Sun Nov 03, 2013 1:14 pm

I thought humans who keep cats do so because they can't find any human friends.
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Re: The end of the world..?

Postby BigBallinStalin on Sun Nov 03, 2013 1:30 pm

Dukasaur wrote:
BigBallinStalin wrote:RE: The Terminator scenario,

It's a problem worth thinking about. If machines become good enough substitutes for humans, thus the possibilities of gains from trade with humans approach zero (or become less than simply replacing all humans with machines), then it would make sense for the machines/cyborgs/whatever to begin exterminating or enslaving us.

Then again, if there are any cyborg economists, they might not seek the corner solution (enslave/eliminate all humans) since the marginal costs of doing so would offset the marginal benefits; therefore, it wouldn't be profit-maximizing to attempt to eliminate/enslave additional humans.

Of course, I'm assuming that the machines would have no moral compunctions whatsoever, but this could be incorrect. Morality could constrain this scenario--or it could justify it (e.g. they could adopt a racist morality, where machines are superior to humans--which might actually be correct. :P ).

I know you're not a fan of post-scarcity economics, but it's an idea worth exploring. If the machines needs are vanishingly small relative to their production, then the expense of keeping humans is just another way to throw around the excess wealth, much in the same way as humans keep cats.


I'm not a fan of post-scarcity economic scenarios because its largely a waste of time, and its fans don't understand the implications of 'post-scarcity'. Decisions are always constrained by time (thus an opportunity cost arises) unless you can attain goals simultaneously and instantaneously, which is impossible--except through creative fiction, which can be entertaining but not at all useful analytically. Resources would also face constrains, thus are scarce, because the quantity of resources and the competing ends of resources are finite due to the constraint of time and the various costs of the means employed.

In a post-scarce world there would be no need for economics because there would be no need to economize. You could instantaneously satisfy all desires without giving up anything; there would be no opportunity cost. Postulating in this manner is nonsensical, which is why I don't find it useful.

Nevertheless, your scenario is analytically useful and entertaining, but it still faces the fact that time and resources are scarce since there remain benefits and costs of maintaining and producing the machines and of domesticating humans (due to the time and resources required for doing so). 'Excess wealth' is a vacuous concept. The totality of one's attained goods* is one's wealth--the optimal amount and mix of which varies per individual. I don't see how cats can be viewed as an outcome of 'excess' wealth because people of a vast range of incomes have cats, thus they are 'excessively' wealthy (reductio ad absurdum).

Maybe you mean that the value of cats is less compared to the value of a sufficient stream of food consumption to keep oneself from starving to death. If so, then the value of domesticated humans may be less compared to the alternative uses of humans--e.g. dead humans or human batteries. You're addressing an issue about the relative prices as exemplified by the various values of using humans, and this approach becomes incorrect when framed in absolutes (e.g. 'excess wealth', or implied as 'either All of this, or All of that').


    *A good is something that is preferable to the decision-maker. Goods can include commodities but also tranquility and other mental states, thus a person can be called wealthy in spirit or in mind even hough he may be poor in terms of physical wealth.
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Re: The end of the world..?

Postby Dukasaur on Sun Nov 03, 2013 2:02 pm

BigBallinStalin wrote:I'm not a fan of post-scarcity economic scenarios because its largely a waste of time, and its fans don't understand the implications of 'post-scarcity'. Decisions are always constrained by time (thus an opportunity cost arises) unless you can attain goals simultaneously and instantaneously, which is impossible--except through creative fiction, which can be entertaining but not at all useful analytically. Resources would also face constrains, thus are scarce, because the quantity of resources and the competing ends of resources are finite due to the constraint of time and the various costs of the means employed.

In a post-scarce world there would be no need for economics because there would be no need to economize. You could instantaneously satisfy all desires without giving up anything; there would be no opportunity cost. Postulating in this manner is nonsensical, which is why I don't find it useful.

That's a misrepresentation of what post-scarcity economics is all about. Nobody is thinking that constraints will disappear or that the costs of anything can ever be reduced to zero, or that wants could be satisfied instantanously. It simply means that costs are so small relative to income that they do not need to overshadow anyone's thoughts.

You buy a coffee on the way to work without worrying about whether it's $1.60 or $1.80, because the amount involved is just too trivial for you to give up valuable real estate in your brain worrying about it. The coffee isn't free, and it never will be, but the amount is just so small that you aren't going to cross the street looking for a better deal.

Two hundred years ago, a coffee was a luxury good, something expensive enough to require major sacrifice. Today it is a fart in the wind. As productivity continues to increase, and needs do not, it is fairly certain that other goods will eventually move into the realm that coffee is in now.

Nevertheless, your scenario is analytically useful and entertaining, but it still faces the fact that time and resources are scarce since there remain benefits and costs of maintaining and producing the machines and of domesticating humans (due to the time and resources required for doing so). 'Excess wealth' is a vacuous concept. The totality of one's attained goods* is one's wealth--the optimal amount and mix of which varies per individual. I don't see how cats can be viewed as an outcome of 'excess' wealth because people of a vast range of incomes have cats, thus they are 'excessively' wealthy (reductio ad absurdum).

If people were genuinely poor, they would eat their cats. The fact that in our society even the poorest people can afford cats is just an illustration of the fact that our society is productive enough that even the poorest can afford luxury goods. The wino on Yonge St. can go into an emergency shelter and get better nutrition and better medical care than what was available to a medieval emperor.

Maybe you mean that the value of cats is less compared to the value of a sufficient stream of food consumption to keep oneself from starving to death.

I mean that cats are a luxury good, and one couldn't afford to keep them if one couldn't afford to first keep oneself. (Okay, we all know about the crazy bag ladies that are exceptions to that rule, but oddball statistical outliers don't mean anything.)

If so, then the value of domesticated humans may be less compared to the alternative uses of humans--e.g. dead humans or human batteries.

Humans would make truly atrocious batteries. I will never forgive The Matrix for planting that particular piece of stupidity in the popular folklore.

You're addressing an issue about the relative prices as exemplified by the various values of using humans, and this approach becomes incorrect when framed in absolutes (e.g. 'excess wealth', or implied as 'either All of this, or All of that').

I frame nothing as absolutes. I'm a scientist at heart, so I never expect to find that anything is more than 95% of this, or 5% of that. Still, some of the 5% things might as well be zero. When's the last time you worried about the rising cost of toothpicks, or HB pencils, or vinegar?

    *A good is something that is preferable to the decision-maker. Goods can include commodities but also tranquility and other mental states, thus a person can be called wealthy in spirit or in mind even though he may be poor in terms of physical wealth.

Yes, like me...:)
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Re: The end of the world..?

Postby BigBallinStalin on Sun Nov 03, 2013 3:21 pm

Dukasaur wrote:
You're addressing an issue about the relative prices as exemplified by the various values of using humans, and this approach becomes incorrect when framed in absolutes (e.g. 'excess wealth', or implied as 'either All of this, or All of that').

I frame nothing as absolutes. I'm a scientist at heart, so I never expect to find that anything is more than 95% of this, or 5% of that. Still, some of the 5% things might as well be zero. When's the last time you worried about the rising cost of toothpicks, or HB pencils, or vinegar?


I disagree because as will soon be shown, you are framing some things as absolutes. If you dropped the luxury v. necessity distinction, and the genuinely poor concept, then I'd agree.

It could be the case that we're both in agreement, but I hesitate at this because of how you frame such distinctions in obviously absolute terms--while simultaneously discarding them (e.g. the emperor-wino story).

(Also, re: the Matrix, it's not so much about the efficiency argument which is interesting, but rather it's about the persuasion of fiction--in comparing the ultimate end of humans as something so mundane as a battery. That allegory is remarkably effective. That's what I appreciate about it).


Dukasaur wrote:
BigBallinStalin wrote:I'm not a fan of post-scarcity economic scenarios because its largely a waste of time, and its fans don't understand the implications of 'post-scarcity'. Decisions are always constrained by time (thus an opportunity cost arises) unless you can attain goals simultaneously and instantaneously, which is impossible--except through creative fiction, which can be entertaining but not at all useful analytically. Resources would also face constrains, thus are scarce, because the quantity of resources and the competing ends of resources are finite due to the constraint of time and the various costs of the means employed.

In a post-scarce world there would be no need for economics because there would be no need to economize. You could instantaneously satisfy all desires without giving up anything; there would be no opportunity cost. Postulating in this manner is nonsensical, which is why I don't find it useful.

That's a misrepresentation of what post-scarcity economics is all about. Nobody is thinking that constraints will disappear or that the costs of anything can ever be reduced to zero, or that wants could be satisfied instantanously. It simply means that costs are so small relative to income that they do not need to overshadow anyone's thoughts.

You buy a coffee on the way to work without worrying about whether it's $1.60 or $1.80, because the amount involved is just too trivial for you to give up valuable real estate in your brain worrying about it. The coffee isn't free, and it never will be, but the amount is just so small that you aren't going to cross the street looking for a better deal.

Two hundred years ago, a coffee was a luxury good, something expensive enough to require major sacrifice. Today it is a fart in the wind. As productivity continues to increase, and needs do not, it is fairly certain that other goods will eventually move into the realm that coffee is in now.


Then obviously, they don't understand the full implications of 'post-scarcity'. It's a faulty model based upon erroneous ideas of scarcity. Your scenario and even your recent story about coffee are simply stories conducive to economic analysis, thus no fancy flights of post-scarcity are even needed.

Your story about coffee is an example of decision-making on the margin, a.k.a. marginalism. Couple that with subjective valuation and relative prices, and you get a huge chunk of economics (not 'post-scarcity' economics). For example, I'm sure you'd agree with me that if one's budget was reduced by 90% then buying Starbucks coffee becomes much more relatively costly--compared to one's previous budget. The same analysis applies vice-versa; this is elementary economics. Therefore, post-scarcity flights of fancy are analytically useless and, if correctly described by you, are completely mislabeled.


Dukasaur wrote:
Nevertheless, your scenario is analytically useful and entertaining, but it still faces the fact that time and resources are scarce since there remain benefits and costs of maintaining and producing the machines and of domesticating humans (due to the time and resources required for doing so). 'Excess wealth' is a vacuous concept. The totality of one's attained goods* is one's wealth--the optimal amount and mix of which varies per individual. I don't see how cats can be viewed as an outcome of 'excess' wealth because people of a vast range of incomes have cats, thus they are 'excessively' wealthy (reductio ad absurdum).

If people were genuinely poor, they would eat their cats. The fact that in our society even the poorest people can afford cats is just an illustration of the fact that our society is productive enough that even the poorest can afford luxury goods. The wino on Yonge St. can go into an emergency shelter and get better nutrition and better medical care than what was available to a medieval emperor.


I agree with the comparison between modern winos and past emperors. It's good reasoning to frame modern poverty with the relative wealth of the past elite; it clearly shows the implications of what we have and whittles many of the allegedly dire implications of inequality in wealth of modernity (in the US).

Still, my point stands about the intellectual bankruptcy of concepts like 'excess wealth', and this is why thinking in absolutes is problematic. People then revert to words like 'genuinely' poor, or 'real' poverty. They then require this false distinction between 'luxury' and 'necessary' goods, which again isn't useful because 'necessary' goods are substituted on the margin, thus some can become less necessary than others--which contradicts the idea of necessary goods. These would be goods that are always required--yet somehow are substituted away in marginal amounts for other 'necessary' goods. It's all about relative prices, and that's what I'm saying here.

To a degree, you agree with me, yet in other aspects, your words don't reveal that agreement because your approach is clearly leaning upon absolutes.

Here's another example:
Dukasaur wrote:
Maybe you mean that the value of cats is less compared to the value of a sufficient stream of food consumption to keep oneself from starving to death.

I mean that cats are a luxury good, and one couldn't afford to keep them if one couldn't afford to first keep oneself. (Okay, we all know about the crazy bag ladies that are exceptions to that rule, but oddball statistical outliers don't mean anything.)


Cats are a 'luxury' good for nearly all people of the US--relative to the prices of goods faced by people in Chad, but within the context of the US, cats for nearly everyone are not luxury goods. This is why this dependence on absolutes (luxury v. necessity) becomes misleading because it doesn't hold when applied consistently. Instead, either cats are viewed as worth the price, or they are not worth the price--it depends on one's opportunity cost of buying cat (what alternative opportunity is forsaken when buying and maintaining a cat?). For example, you may even find poor people in Chad who view having a cat as a 'necessity' since the benefits offset the costs (e.g. rodent control). But "no way! cats are luxury goods!" one may exclaim. Again, this is why the luxury v. necessity distinction and any other absolutist reasoning is misleading and erroneous.

Another example with "genuinely poor." People would eat their cats if they were genuinely poor, but 'genuinely poor' is as a vacuous concept as 'excess wealth'. It doesn't explain anything, but it can definitely be applied arbitrarily (thus becomes misleading). For example, there are 'genuinely' poor people in Chad who according to the logic must eat their cats, yet some amount of families own their cats. Why? "Well, those cat-owners are not genuinely poor" (no True Scotsman fallacy). It's not because of 'genuine' poverty and what not; it depends on the alternative uses of cats (food or rodent control and/or warm and fuzzy feelings of love)--given some budget constraint; therefore, even poorer families in Chad can afford cats as a 'luxury' good, which contradicts the 'genuinely poor' requirements and yada yada. Note the difference between speaking in the language of false, absolute distinctions and speaking in the language of economics--with its relative prices, alternative competing ends, and so on.
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Re: The end of the world..?

Postby AndyDufresne on Mon Nov 04, 2013 10:19 am

Speaking of the poor, I watched Kurosawa's version of the Lower Depths over the weekend, which is pretty faithful adaptation of the Maxim Gorky play. I always enjoy a good Toshiro Mifune film, plus it also had Bokuzen Hidari in it, who always makes me smile.

Check it out. Netflix has a DVD I think, and HuluPlus has it on streaming as well.


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Re: The end of the world..?

Postby mrswdk on Mon Nov 04, 2013 2:26 pm

I've seen plenty of homeless guys with dogs, and I'm pretty sure those homeless guys count as 'poor'.
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