UN 95% certain that climate change is caused by humans

[AndyDufresne]

97% = 75 / 77

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2010/12/30/lawrence-solomon-75-climate-scientists-think-humans-contribute-to-global-warming/

The 97% is 97% of published scientists: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific ... literature


--Andy

[Metsfanmax]

97% = 75 / 77

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2010/12/30/lawrence-solomon-75-climate-scientists-think-humans-contribute-to-global-warming/

That's not the 97% figure that people have recently been quoting, that's from several years ago. The new 97% figure is based on a review of 12,000 climate science peer-reviewed papers. Read it for yourself if you like.

(Do you really think that it's a coincidence though? This is why statistics is powerful.)

Also, this guy is just absurd.

The two researchers started by altogether excluding from their survey the thousands of scientists most likely to think that the Sun, or planetary movements, might have something to do with climate on Earth

Does he really think that climate scientists think the Sun is not the engine that provides the heat for the Earth?

As an astronomer, I can tell you that many of us are concerned about the difficulty of projecting the climate into the future with certainty because of our lack of information on what the Sun will be doing in a century, but that does not affect our confidence in the basic tenets of global warming, which are based on the simplest physics and chemistry. You keep on trapping energy into something, eventually something will happen.

[hotfire]

http://www.inforum.com/event/article/id/418819/publisher_ID/1/

[thegreekdog]

I can tell you that many of us are concerned about the difficulty of projecting the climate into the future with certainty because of our lack of information on what the Sun will be doing in a century

This sentence scares me. "Yeah, we don't know what the sun is going to do really." I'm not saying you should know or anything, but the sun is a scary thing. As C. Montgomery Burns once said, "Since the beginning of time, man has longed to destroy the sun. I've done the next best thing!"

[Phatscotty]

No student graduating high school this year has experienced global warming in their lifetime.

Yet virtually every student graduating is convinced the glove is warming.

Well done. Maybe it's time we go back to teaching Math and Reading and Writing, and get rid of the entire Progressive education program.

[Metsfanmax]

Phatscotty. Out of curiosity. Do you think that you are A) more smart, B) less smart, or C) equally smart compared to Ph.D. climate scientists?

[Night Strike]

Phatscotty. Out of curiosity. Do you think that you are A) more smart, B) less smart, or C) equally smart compared to Ph.D. climate scientists?

Ph.D. climate scientists can A) be wrong, B) be motivated by continuing their funding, and C) be supportive of socialist transfers of wealth. Just because they have a Ph.D. next to their name doesn't mean their every statement is fact.

[AndyDufresne]

Phatscotty. Out of curiosity. Do you think that you are A) more smart, B) less smart, or C) equally smart compared to Ph.D. climate scientists?

Ph.D. climate scientists can A) be wrong, B) be motivated by continuing their funding, and C) be supportive of socialist transfers of wealth. Just because they have a Ph.D. next to their name doesn't mean their every statement is fact.

--Andy

[mrswdk]

Ph.D. climate scientists can... C) be supportive of socialist transfers of wealth

That's quite the detour you've taken there.

[Metsfanmax]

Phatscotty. Out of curiosity. Do you think that you are A) more smart, B) less smart, or C) equally smart compared to Ph.D. climate scientists?

Ph.D. climate scientists can A) be wrong, B) be motivated by continuing their funding, and C) be supportive of socialist transfers of wealth. Just because they have a Ph.D. next to their name doesn't mean their every statement is fact.

Thank you, Phatscotty, for answering the question.

[Phatscotty]

Their record of failed predictions does not take any intelligence to observe, but you can observe much about those who ignore the record of failed predictions, and even more about those who think the more brainwashed you are in college the smarter you are, but really their head is so far up their own asses they haven't listened to any other point of view for so long they convince themselves there is no other point of view, or like they are 95% of the majority.

We know what this is all about, imposing your version of force on people and businesses and the economy and confiscating property and growing the power of the government and redistributing the wealth around the world, and it could only come from the fanatic faith so misplaced in the empty junk science of Leftism.

[Lootifer]

The accuracy of a climate model is not dependent on the political alignment of the forecaster FYI.

If you disagree I ask that you provide evidence to support the claim. And climate scientists being x% (where x is greater than 50) liberal is not sufficient evidence by the way.

Also being a statistical forecaster/analyst myself I can tell you that the one constant in any kind of forecast/projection is you will undoubtedly be incorrect. This too is not just limited to liberals/leftists/whatever.

[Metsfanmax]

Also being a statistical forecaster/analyst myself I can tell you that the one constant in any kind of forecast/projection is you will undoubtedly be incorrect. This too is not just limited to liberals/leftists/whatever.

We really need to educate students better on the subject of probability and uncertainty. I just don't see any way for the general public to fully understand the strengths and limitations of climate forecasting until that happens.

[thegreekdog]

Also being a statistical forecaster/analyst myself I can tell you that the one constant in any kind of forecast/projection is you will undoubtedly be incorrect. This too is not just limited to liberals/leftists/whatever.

We really need to educate students better on the subject of probability and uncertainty. I just don't see any way for the general public to fully understand the strengths and limitations of climate forecasting until that happens.

I wonder how much adults retain from childhood educations. For example, I took two years of calculus in my education career. If you gave me a calculus problem now, I could not solve it because I haven't used calculus since college. Let me put it another way:

We really need to educate students better on the subject of taxation, including how taxes affect financial statements, how effective taxes are calculated, and how tax dollars are used. I just don't see any way for the general public to fully understand the strenghts and limitations of taxation until that happens.

[2dimes]

I'm pretty sure it's even worse than you think Greek..

We really need to educate students better on putting litter in a proper trash receptacle. Including seperating plastics, food waste, chemicals and metal. I just don't see any way for the public to fully understand the strengths and limitations of recycling until that happens.

Never mind not driving as much or alternate fuels. How about starting with anyone who eats a snack refrains from just throwing the container/wrapping out the window?

[AndyDufresne]

I'm pretty sure it's even worse than you think Greek..

We really need to educate students better on putting litter in a proper trash receptacle. Including seperating plastics, food waste, chemicals and metal. I just don't see any way for the public to fully understand the strengths and limitations of recycling until that happens.

Never mind not driving as much or alternate fuels. How about starting with anyone who eats a snack refrains from just throwing the container/wrapping out the window?

--Andy

[BigBallinStalin]

I'm pretty sure it's even worse than you think Greek..

We really need to educate students better on putting litter in a proper trash receptacle. Including seperating plastics, food waste, chemicals and metal. I just don't see any way for the public to fully understand the strengths and limitations of recycling until that happens.

Never mind not driving as much or alternate fuels. How about starting with anyone who eats a snack refrains from just throwing the container/wrapping out the window?

Really? That's a property rights issue. Throw your trash on the floor of a McDonald's and magically the managers care enough to have it cleaned. Mass EDU program averted.

[Metsfanmax]

Also being a statistical forecaster/analyst myself I can tell you that the one constant in any kind of forecast/projection is you will undoubtedly be incorrect. This too is not just limited to liberals/leftists/whatever.

We really need to educate students better on the subject of probability and uncertainty. I just don't see any way for the general public to fully understand the strengths and limitations of climate forecasting until that happens.

I wonder how much adults retain from childhood educations. For example, I took two years of calculus in my education career. If you gave me a calculus problem now, I could not solve it because I haven't used calculus since college. Let me put it another way:

Probability and uncertainty, unlike calculus, pervade our daily experiences. Every time you read a news article on an issue like the environment, or energy, or health, you are being exposed to thinking based on risk and uncertainty. But since people aren't probably educated in the first place to understand that part of the thinking, it sails right over them. If they learn to see that in their every day life, then it becomes reinforced every day. That's the value of the high school education -- I don't expect people to remember how to calculate a permutation at 30 years old. I do expect people to understand the difference between point-based reasoning (i.e. we make a measurement and that's the answer) and set-based reasoning (i.e. we make many measurements and the answer is somewhere in the middle).

[thegreekdog]

Also being a statistical forecaster/analyst myself I can tell you that the one constant in any kind of forecast/projection is you will undoubtedly be incorrect. This too is not just limited to liberals/leftists/whatever.

We really need to educate students better on the subject of probability and uncertainty. I just don't see any way for the general public to fully understand the strengths and limitations of climate forecasting until that happens.

I wonder how much adults retain from childhood educations. For example, I took two years of calculus in my education career. If you gave me a calculus problem now, I could not solve it because I haven't used calculus since college. Let me put it another way:

Probability and uncertainty, unlike calculus, pervade our daily experiences. Every time you read a news article on an issue like the environment, or energy, or health, you are being exposed to thinking based on risk and uncertainty. But since people aren't probably educated in the first place to understand that part of the thinking, it sails right over them. If they learn to see that in their every day life, then it becomes reinforced every day. That's the value of the high school education -- I don't expect people to remember how to calculate a permutation at 30 years old. I do expect people to understand the difference between point-based reasoning (i.e. we make a measurement and that's the answer) and set-based reasoning (i.e. we make many measurements and the answer is somewhere in the middle).

Okay, but I'm pretty sure everyone pays taxes (including high school students). So...

[2dimes]

What is a high school student paying taxes on and how does the litter thrown out a window make it's way inside a McDonald's for partially proper disposal?

[thegreekdog]

What is a high school student paying taxes on and how does the litter thrown out a window make it's way inside a McDonald's for partially proper disposal?

A high school student with a job will directly pay state income taxes (and possibly federal), unemployment taxes, and sales taxes.

A high school student with or without a job will indirectly pay all kinds of different corporate and personal and transactional taxes.

Also, thanks 2dimes, I rest my case.

[AndyDufresne]

What is a high school student paying taxes on and how does the litter thrown out a window make it's way inside a McDonald's for partially proper disposal?

A high school student with a job will directly pay state income taxes (and possibly federal), unemployment taxes, and sales taxes.

A high school student with or without a job will indirectly pay all kinds of different corporate and personal and transactional taxes.

Also, thanks 2dimes, I rest my case.

TGD, just because you love taxes, doesn't mean you should FORCE YOUR LOVE ON EVERYONE?!?!!!?! I think its high time to stand up to tax bullies, like TGD.




--Andy

[Metsfanmax]

Also being a statistical forecaster/analyst myself I can tell you that the one constant in any kind of forecast/projection is you will undoubtedly be incorrect. This too is not just limited to liberals/leftists/whatever.

We really need to educate students better on the subject of probability and uncertainty. I just don't see any way for the general public to fully understand the strengths and limitations of climate forecasting until that happens.

I wonder how much adults retain from childhood educations. For example, I took two years of calculus in my education career. If you gave me a calculus problem now, I could not solve it because I haven't used calculus since college. Let me put it another way:

Probability and uncertainty, unlike calculus, pervade our daily experiences. Every time you read a news article on an issue like the environment, or energy, or health, you are being exposed to thinking based on risk and uncertainty. But since people aren't probably educated in the first place to understand that part of the thinking, it sails right over them. If they learn to see that in their every day life, then it becomes reinforced every day. That's the value of the high school education -- I don't expect people to remember how to calculate a permutation at 30 years old. I do expect people to understand the difference between point-based reasoning (i.e. we make a measurement and that's the answer) and set-based reasoning (i.e. we make many measurements and the answer is somewhere in the middle).

Okay, but I'm pretty sure everyone pays taxes (including high school students). So...

You're being specific regarding a particular skill that should be taught. I'm not. If a high school education does not give one the life skills necessary to figure out how to think about taxes, then it should be fixed -- but that doesn't mean teaching people in-depth about the tax system. It means teaching people more about basic math, economics and finances, and allowing them to put the pieces together on their own. SImilarly, I'm not advocating teaching students in-depth material about climate change; I'm advocating giving them the tools necessary to understand the more sophisticated material they'll encounter in their adult lives. There are plenty of benefits to teaching students more about risk and uncertainty; climate change is one of many.

[Lootifer]

Eh im with TGD on this one (though in fairness I think both Mets and TGD are correct). Generally the population has a poor understanding of both probability/stochasticity and tax process (I am part of this general population).

[thegreekdog]

You're being specific regarding a particular skill that should be taught. I'm not. If a high school education does not give one the life skills necessary to figure out how to think about taxes, then it should be fixed -- but that doesn't mean teaching people in-depth about the tax system. It means teaching people more about basic math, economics and finances, and allowing them to put the pieces together on their own. SImilarly, I'm not advocating teaching students in-depth material about climate change; I'm advocating giving them the tools necessary to understand the more sophisticated material they'll encounter in their adult lives. There are plenty of benefits to teaching students more about risk and uncertainty; climate change is one of many.

You're also proving my point (and no, I'm not calling you stupid, nor do I think you're stupid by any means).

The tax system has little to do with basic math, economics, or finances. It has more to do with accounting (which is based upon basic math and basic finances) and the more specialized financial accounting and the much more specialized tax accounting. The lack of education about taxes has led to widely held beliefs by Americans (and others), including government-types, believing articles lambasting multinational corporations for "not paying taxes" which is either a blatant lie or extreme ignorance (don't write about something you don't know anything about). The lack of education about taxes has led to the widely held belief that X% of Americans don't pay taxes (I've seen X be as high as 51%). Both of these ignorant statements lead to calls for policy changes that will end up hurting the people that argue in favor of them.

I find it no different than people incorrectly (or disingenuously) interpreting climate change models, except, I suppose, we could die from climate change; can't really die from taxes.