saxitoxin wrote:Mr Changsha wrote:saxitoxin wrote:Agree with BBS on 2. The EU let Estonia in, it's not like we're talking about some elite club here. It appears they'll basically take anyone with a pulse. I kinda think of the EU as the Arizona State University of international organizations.
I see no one wanted to tackle RBS...
Regarding point 2, the President of the European Commission just stated today that it would be "Difficult, if not impossible" for Scotland to gain entry into the EU, due to the fact that at least one government (one assumes Spain) is against it. Beyond that, as Scotland is opposed to joining the Euro (and is hardly a big enough power to dictate terms) that would seem to me at least to be a further problem.
Nonetheless, the scottish aren't thick and so will of course vote to stay in the UK.
It's in the interests of everyone on the planet Earth to try to abort Scottish independence, but - if the baby gets delivered - their interests change to making sure it survives instead of starving it to death. If the EU shuts the door on Scotland it forces it into the EFTA, which helps stave off EFTA's near-moribund status and makes it appear an increasingly viable option for Euroskeptic parties in all those little rectangle-shaped countries in continental Europe to market to their constituencies as a funkhole to which they can bolt the EU.
Second, the U.S. opposes Scottish independence because it doesn't have any claws in the slack-jawed, local yokel politicians in Edinburgh like they do with MPs in London. The U.S. wants to keep the UK relevant so it can indirectly influence EU policy. Once the UK starts to balkanize, the U.S. will immediately lose interest in the UK. Its priority will then turn to securing Scottish oil and making sure there aren't uncontrolled exports. There are enough white people and Sean Connery fans in the U.S. that it can't pursue the same strategy with Scotland as it does with Arab countries, that is periodically bombing the bejeezus out of it to skyrocket the price of oil and keep it out of China's hands, so it will need to become
Amigo Numero Uno to Edinburgh.
Everyone is threatening Scotland will hell-on-Earth, but, if it actually becomes independent, all those same countries will immediately start offering chocolates and handjobs.
That is an interesting analysis to be sure, however I think you are rather overestimating Scotland's importance in the power stakes.
Within Europe there are three great powers, some minor powers and countries of almost complete irrelevence. In european terms, Scotland belongs to the latter group. Yet if one listens to their representatives, they speak as if an independent Scotland has the power to dictate terms: "We will have a monetary union with the rest of the UK" they say. "We will apply for entry in the EU but we won't accept the euro". This seems to be to be a completely unrealistic position for a country with a population of 5 million souls, no military to speak of, little industry, an enormous public sector and welfare etc etc.
When the UK government makes clear (in fact all three major parties) that there will be no monetary union with a foreign country, the SNP say the UK government is 'bluffing'.
When Barrosso states his view that Scotland will find it very difficult to gain entry into the EU, the SNP try the old 'what he
really meant by that' spin.
I would think that because of these events over the last few days we will see the opinion polls dramatically shift to a vote for staying with the UK. The scots would be
insane to vote to seperate under these conditions.
