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Phatscotty wrote:kuthoer wrote:Phatscotty wrote:kuthoer wrote:Phatscotty wrote:how much of the annual carbon output is from man and how much is normal. I saw a study that suggest mankind was accountable for roughly 3%, and the other 97% is natural from decaying plants and volcanoes etc
I saw a study? Puhleeeeze!
I challenge you to make a post that has the tiniest bit of value or relevance. Let's try this.
Kuthoer, what % of the earth's annual carbon output would you say humans are responsible for? And you don't get to google your answer. You don't have to remember the source of what you think it is or anything dumb like that, just spit out an answer strictly drawing from your knowledge base, like I did. Kuthoer, what % of the earth's annual carbon output would you say humans are responsible for?
Spitting out things straight from that partisan brain of yours, is what makes your posts so silly.
I gave you a fair chance.
You chose Troll
Phatscotty wrote:Seriously, is there any difference between buying carbon credits to somehow make it okay to pump as much carbon dioxide into the environment as a corporation can afford, and paying the Catholic church money to somehow forgive all your sins?
Phatscotty wrote:Anyone? what % of the earth's annual carbon output are humans responsible for?
patches70 wrote:2%? That's not "tiny winy, itsy bitsy, yellow polka dot bikini."
Lemme ask this question. If I have a system and within that system I add 2% per year to one component of that system, how long until I've doubled that amount of that particular component within that system?
The answer will be about 35 years.
Now, if there is, say 100PPM of CO2 in a system (the atmosphere) and I double the amount of CO2 within that system, how many PPM of CO2 will then be in that system?
I honestly don't know the answer to that. But when you are talking about a percentage of growth per annual then you are dealing with the law of exponential growth.
The PPM has gone from 280 PPM (which seems to be the equilibrium amount) in 1775-1800 or so, to between 330-400 PPM today, depending on what chart one happens to be looking at. We are talking about 50-120 Parts Per Million increase in 225 years. Have we actually doubled the amount of uncaptured CO2 yet?
CO2 is constantly be released and recaptured in nature. The theory goes that excluding man made CO2 nature is in balance in regards to CO2 in that basically what is released is also recaptured. For the most part, it is a dynamic system after all.
I don't know if we've doubled the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere yet, but if we pick a specific point to begin measuring, and then how long after that we actually doubled the amount, then we can easily figure out the average percentage added within that time frame with some fairly easy maths.
So, does anyone know how many tons of CO2 was in the atmosphere in 1800, the beginning of the industrial revolution, and how many tons of CO2 is in the atmosphere today?
With the law of exponential growth we know that if you add 10% of something per/period, then in 7 periods that something will have doubled in size. If we continue at the same growth, then in 7 more periods that will double again, and so on and so on.
A 3% increase means a doubling every 22.5 periods or so. 2% every 35 periods. 1% every 70 periods. And though pretty much all the graphs one can look at measuring PPM of CO2 in the atmosphere is different (which brings a whole new set of questions in itself), one thing remains constant. The exponential growth curve is the same in every one of them.
We are dealing with an exponential growth issue when talking about percentages. So, has the total CO2 doubled? If so, when? And in what time period?
I'm pretty sure that the CO2 makes up about around .04% of the total atmosphere. High, given the historical data of fairly recent history we know of, but it's a trace gas and even today CO2 is still a trace gas.
And then there is the false rhetoric that we are going to "destroy the earth" because of our CO2 emissions. I'm not sure what that means, but there is no way we can destroy the earth. No matter how much CO2 we pump out. We won't kill everything on earth. In certain times in the earth's history the were over 7,000PPM of CO2 in the atmosphere (Cambrian age) and you can damn well bet there were still living things and there was still an earth that could support life. In fact, it was the lowering of CO2 during the Cambrian that led to the Cambrian extinction event. Also, the increase in CO2 just prior to the Cambrian age led to the "Cambrian explosion", one of the greatest amounts of unprecedented diversity of organisms ever suddenly appeared on the earth coinciding with a massive increase of CO2. Most of which died off when the CO2 dropped.
Can humans survive in such environments?
I don't know, but we are an adaptable species. But either way, we can't destroy the earth.
Regardless, it's still not a good idea to burn all the rain forests, waste fossil fuels and such. Not so much because I want to protect the earth, but that it's just not a good idea to waste resources because there is always a finite supply at any given time. And it takes a long time to grow another tree, for carbon to transform into a drop of oil. Not to mention the cost of waste is a huge burden to most.
Saving the earth? Not only can man not destroy the earth (yet), man can't "save" the earth either. Hell, we could go ahead and fire off every single nuke that exists in one big fireball of violence and the earth will still be circling the sun and life will still go on in some form or another. We won't be here, but then again, the earth doesn't really care one way or another what lives on her. Human beings included.
Maybe one day we will harness the tech to actually turn the earth into a rocky, lifeless chunk of rock (or blasted to component atoms), but we ain't anywhere close to that yet. And let's hope we never are!
I'm not convinced that our "solutions" to global warming are solutions at all. Those steps have the potential to just cause plenty of problems in and of themselves that are as bad as the problems we are trying to solve. I recommend proceeding with caution. Lets not get all panicky because panic never solves anything. Just makes things worse.
The arrogance of man is thinking nature is under our control and not the other way around
Ichiro Serizawa
kuthoer wrote: you tell us we can't destroy the Earth, regardless of what happens to human habitat.
patches70 wrote:kuthoer wrote: you tell us we can't destroy the Earth, regardless of what happens to human habitat.
We can't, unless you'd like to explain how we can?
We can certainly destroy human habitat in the blink of an eye. No need for climate change to accomplish that goal. We could do that far more quickly and efficiently than global warming could ever get that job done. Hahahaha!
An asteroid could do it even faster than we could ourselves!
Which goes to the point that there are a lot of other worse things that can happen to us than global warming. Some of which are actually within our control.
At what point will the CO2 levels need to reach to led to the complete destruction of human beings?
I don't think anyone can answer that. The climate change fear mongers say if we reach 540PPM of CO2 is over for us. That's BS.
I'm just asking a question, anyone have the answers?
Anyway, I was addressing the concept of what percentage CO2 we are pumping out and pointing out that it is an exponential growth issue, as is always the case when one asks "how much percentage of <anything> is being added per <time frame>?"
There is a nice, neat formula that expresses said phenomenon and adding even 2% of something in exponential terms is a massive amount that leads to the doubling of whatever it is you are talking about in 23 years.
I simply ask have we doubled the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere yet? I don't know, that's why I asked.
And then, if we have, in what time frame have we doubled it?
From there we can determine the percentage growth. And if we know the percentage growth we can figure out the time frame upon which that figure doubles, and doubles yet again and again.
All the graphs I can find always show different figures for the same time period. The only constant is the exponential growth spike of CO2 in the atmosphere.
So I simply ask the logical question, when did we double the amount of uncaptured CO2?
What I can say for near certainty is that if we have been even pumping 1% of CO2 increase into the atmosphere since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, then we've doubled the CO2 in the atmosphere at least 3 times. It the rate is 2% a year then we've doubled the CO2 in the atmosphere at least 7 times since 1800.
So, is that truly the case? I don't know, that's why I ask.
It's more likely that the rate we are increasing the CO2 (assuming we are increasing the CO2) is more a percent of a percent. Given the time frame we are supposedly have started this, beginning with the Industrial Revolution.
And that's the answer to PS' question, how much percentage of CO2 are we pumping into the atmosphere? A percent of a percent.
That's my guess without further information.
I think it's around 3,000 gigatonnes of CO2 in the atmosphere now, so it's said. How many gigatonnes of CO2 was in the atmosphere in 1800? Hell, 1900 would work. Failing that, how about 1950? or 2000? If we knew how many gigatonnes were in the atmosphere in 2000 and know how much is in the atmosphere today, we can start working out the math.
The figures have to be out there somewhere, I just don't feel like looking for it because I don't really care. I'm just trying to answer PS' question, and there is an answer. We just need the figures to get to it.
So Kuethor, why don't you actually help and just answer some of my questions instead of being a bitch ass troll?
Phatscotty wrote:how much of the annual carbon output is from man and how much is normal. I saw a study that suggest mankind was accountable for roughly 3%, and the other 97% is natural from decaying plants and volcanoes etc
patches70 wrote:Lemme ask this question. If I have a system and within that system I add 2% per year to one component of that system, how long until I've doubled that amount of that particular component within that system?
The answer will be about 35 years.
Metsfanmax wrote: If you take into account the existing concentration of about 400 ppm, and the current estimate that we are increasing the concentration at a rate of about 2 ppm per year, then the rate of increase of atmospheric CO2 is 0.5% per year. At that rate, it takes about 140 years to double the atmospheric concentration.
patches70 wrote:Let us say, for instance, the PPM of CO2 in the air is exactly 100PPM and that there is 1,000 gigatonnes of CO2 in the atmosphere. The doubling of the CO2 would be when the amount of CO2 reaches 2,000 gigatonnes. But that 2,000 gigatonnes would not necessarily translate into 200PPM because the total atmosphere mass would have changed as well.
...
That's why I'm asking for the simple amount of total CO2 in the atmosphere by mass, instead of concentration. If there is 3,000 gigatonnes of CO2 in the atmosphere now, then a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere would be 6,000 gigatonnes. But I have no idea what the PPM would be when that happens.
1. Is freed CO2 in the atmosphere growing at an exponential rate?
2. If so, what is the total mass of CO2 from various periods in very recent history? (as in today, a decade ago, two decades ago, etc etc)
3. Does the total mass of the atmosphere, all the gases present in the air, stay at a constant mass? As in do all the values of all these gases change like CO2 apparently changes? (see graphic)
4. As the CO2 rises, is the a corresponding decrease in other gases in the atmosphere?
For the record, IMO, the reason people give blank stares to the climate change mongers is because a lot of times people just don't understand what the hell is being talked about.
Metsfanmax wrote:
(such as that "PPM" really means parts per million of volume, which is not equivalent to parts per million of mass).
mets wrote:Now, when you're talking about concentrations that are less than 0.1% of the total mass of the atmosphere, such as for carbon dioxide, a small change in mass of that constituent has a negligible effect on the mass of the atmosphere (which is measured in the quadrillions of tons). So, to a very good approximation, a doubling in the mass of a minute constituent is the same as a doubling of its concentration (again, by mass, not volume). As an analogy, let's take your toy example of an atmosphere with 1000 tons of mass. In that atmosphere is, say, methane with a total mass of 1 ton. If we doubled the methane mass to 2 tons, we'd still only increase the mass of the atmosphere to 1001 tons, and the concentration would increase from 0.1% to 0.1998%, or basically exactly 0.2%.
I understand that there's a lot to think about here, so don't hesitate to keep asking if it's not clear.
mets wrote: since human economic growth is exponential, so is the growth rate of CO2 emissions.
mets wrote:I don't know of an easily available data source for this. You can estimate it based on the emissions rate I quote above though -- a typical rate of increase between 1990 and today was about 6-10 gigatons per year, so just subtract that off from about 750 gigatons and work backwards. It's enough to demonstrate that the change of the total CO2 mass is not a simple exponential function.
Mets wrote:That's a very complicated question
Mets wrote: If you want to know whether fossil fuel burning changes the mass of the atmosphere, it's also still complicated, .....it's possible that the net effect on the Earth's mass is actually negative.
mets wrote: Note from our above conversation that even if we assume that the total mass of the atmosphere increases by the same amount as the increase in carbon mass, it's a minute change to the total atmosphere mass.
mets wrote: such as water.
mets wrote:I know that people don't want to feel like they're being taken advantage of. All I ask is that they have an open mind when we try to explain it.
patches70 wrote:Thanks mets, some more questions then?
Oh, and if my doubling effect of CO2 is bothering you, I ask because it's the climate models that predict a rise of temperature between 2-4.5+ degrees C by doubling of atmospheric CO2. It was characterized as "all the models confirm" BTW, and I'll post some of that eventually.
I know enough that even that modest change in temperature would cause some major problems. Thus, why I am wondering about the doubling effect.
I guess this is climate sensitivity, the definition as I understand it is thus-
"is the estimate of how much the earth's climate will warm in response to the increased greenhouse effect if we double the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere."
Is this correct?
I guess to measure climate sensitivity there are two methods used, the first being models (which frankly have proven to be pretty unreliable, yes?)
and the second by looking physical evidence as in looking at climate change in the distant past. I guess with ice cores, or other geological evidence.
I this correct?
Ok, good. From the charts I've seen, around 1775-1800, right around the start of the industrial revolution, the PPM of CO2 was about 280PPM.
Is this about correct?
If so, and the PPM today is 400PPM, then we haven't actually doubled the amount of CO2, since the industrial revolution began, in the atmosphere yet, correct?
And is it generally considered the industrial revolution that is the main catalyst for the releasing of man made CO2 to such levels that it's supposedly a problem?
Now, if this were true, does that mean a collapse in human economic growth would then lead to a lowering of CO2 emissions?
I read information saying that there is 3,000 gigatonnes of CO2 in the atmosphere right now. (one gigatonne is a quadrillion grams). I don't know if that's true or not, or if it's 750 gigatonnes, or whatever, that's not so much an issue per say other than being vastly different estimates and a frustrating inconsistency of data presented. It seems like it all depends on who one asks and everyone has different answers.
1. How is it determined today how many gigatonnes are in the atmosphere and are those calculations correct or are they just best guesses based on information at hand? Are they basically just estimates or are hard cold actually facts?
2. If we are adding 6-10 gigatons per year then the CO2 doubling rate would take about 70 years. Since it's been 225 years since the start of the industrial revolution, then has the CO2 in the atmosphere actually doubled since the start of the Industrial revolution?
It should have, but has it?
So the changes in CO2 concentration and mass are minute as well?
I'm pretty sure that water vapor makes up the majority of the mass of the atmosphere, correct?
That's fine and dandy, sir. How do you feel about making predictions?
Do you think it's problematic to make predictions based on knowledge that there is no way we yet completely understand?
Also,
Trees and plants are carbon traps, since their structure is made of carbon. Correct?
Is not the human body also a carbon trap?
Sure we expel CO2 but we hold a lot of carbon in our bodies anyway, correct?
mets wrote:These are the result of direct measurement. A way to do it is that we know the total mass of the atmosphere, and simply by analyzing air that we capture from the atmosphere, we can very precisely determine what fraction of it is carbon dioxide. We multiply that fraction by the total mass of the atmosphere, and get the mass of carbon dioxide. So, similar to measurements of temperature, these are about as close to "cold hard facts" as you can get.
patches70 wrote:And that's pretty much how I imagined that it would be done. But I have to ask, doesn't it matter from where one captures atmosphere to measure from?
Oh, and one other thing, CO2 isn't the only greenhouse gas, correct?
What are the other greenhouse gases, and would you be able to list them in order of potency? That is from top to bottom taking into account the amount of infra-red absorbed by said gas from the light spectrum. It's that infra-red absorption that is primarily trapping the heat, correct?
k*thoer wrote:Of course once the Oceans become acidic, our diets might to change. We can always resort to cannabalism.
mrswdk wrote:k*thoer wrote:Of course once the Oceans become acidic, our diets might to change. We can always resort to cannabalism.
And once it reaches that stage, we'll need someone to slaughter that meat for us. I'm guessing we can count on you to lend a hand?
danfrank666 wrote:Phatscotty wrote:kuthoer wrote:Phatscotty wrote:kuthoer wrote:Phatscotty wrote:how much of the annual carbon output is from man and how much is normal. I saw a study that suggest mankind was accountable for roughly 3%, and the other 97% is natural from decaying plants and volcanoes etc
I saw a study? Puhleeeeze!
I challenge you to make a post that has the tiniest bit of value or relevance. Let's try this.
Kuthoer, what % of the earth's annual carbon output would you say humans are responsible for? And you don't get to google your answer. You don't have to remember the source of what you think it is or anything dumb like that, just spit out an answer strictly drawing from your knowledge base, like I did. Kuthoer, what % of the earth's annual carbon output would you say humans are responsible for?
Spitting out things straight from that partisan brain of yours, is what makes your posts so silly.
I gave you a fair chance.
You chose Troll
please excuse my ignorance , ah , thats what a troll is . Thanks for the enlightenment.
kuthoer wrote:mrswdk wrote:k*thoer wrote:Of course once the Oceans become acidic, our diets might to change. We can always resort to cannabalism.
And once it reaches that stage, we'll need someone to slaughter that meat for us. I'm guessing we can count on you to lend a hand?
If you look anything like your avatar, you'll make a fine meal.
I'm looking at all the long winded posts, sheesh we're getting global warming from all that hot air.
Here's a short fact, total CO2 emissions have declined in the US the last several years. Due mainly to increase use of natural gas and using less dirty coal. the Free Market
Phatscotty wrote:kuthoer wrote:mrswdk wrote:k*thoer wrote:Of course once the Oceans become acidic, our diets might to change. We can always resort to cannabalism.
And once it reaches that stage, we'll need someone to slaughter that meat for us. I'm guessing we can count on you to lend a hand?
If you look anything like your avatar, you'll make a fine meal.
I'm looking at all the long winded posts, sheesh we're getting global warming from all that hot air.
Here's a short fact, total CO2 emissions have declined in the US the last several years. Due mainly to increase use of natural gas and using less dirty coal. the Free Market
ftfy
Phatscotty wrote:Here's a short fact, total CO2 emissions have declined in the US the last several years. Due mainly to increase use of natural gas and using less dirty coal. the Free Market
ftfy
Metsfanmax wrote:Phatscotty wrote:Here's a short fact, total CO2 emissions have declined in the US the last several years. Due mainly to increase use of natural gas and using less dirty coal. the Free Market
ftfy
"I have no idea why emissions declined, but attributing it to the free market is convenient for my worldview, so let's do that."
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