Official in game Dice analysis

[Jgood]

Could it be that you are keeping track of games that you notice bad throwing?
Have you had equal streaks with attacking when you go on a roll? or when you are defending?

[Pedronicus]

I'm keeping track of large goes - nothing else (To get a fair sample) the two games sampled were recorded from the start of the go

[Pedronicus]

Game 39854
Attacker rolls 1 1 3 Defender rolls 2 1
Attacker rolls 4 2 2 Defender rolls 6 3
Attacker rolls 3 2 5 Defender rolls 1 6
Attacker rolls 3 5 3 Defender rolls 1
Attacker rolls 1 4 2 Defender rolls 2 2
Attacker rolls 1 6 6 Defender rolls 2 3
Attacker rolls 1 4 2 Defender rolls 2 3
Attacker rolls 4 2 2 Defender rolls 3 1
Attacker rolls 2 5 3 Defender rolls 5 4
Attacker rolls 3 6 3 Defender rolls 6 5
Attacker rolls 2 5 6 Defender rolls 6 2
Attacker rolls 6 5 2 Defender rolls 6
Attacker rolls 2 5 2 Defender rolls 6
Attacker rolls 2 2 4 Defender rolls 5
Attacker rolls 4 3 6 Defender rolls 5
Attacker rolls 5 4 2 Defender rolls 1
Attacker rolls 4 6 6 Defender rolls 2
Attacker rolls 5 3 3 Defender rolls 4

[HighBorn]

iv noticed that if your attack strait through ie. from one cont to the next with out halting the attacks than you get bad rolls.. but if you attack from a territory and stay there you have to usually bring up the attack from screen again for that country it seems to roll better.. like its reseting the dice generator or something... i dont know just something iv noticed b4 while palying maybe just me..

[Pedronicus]

Game 39855 (I did alright in this one - mind you, there were a lot of 1's to attack)
Attacker rolls 6 2 5 Defender rolls 4
Attacker rolls 6 1 4 Defender rolls 3
Attacker rolls 3 6 3 Defender rolls 5
Attacker rolls 6 4 4 Defender rolls 4
Attacker rolls 1 6 3 Defender rolls 1
Attacker rolls 1 4 5 Defender rolls 1
Attacker rolls 5 6 1 Defender rolls 5 1
Attacker rolls 6 1 1 Defender rolls 4 4
Attacker rolls 2 5 1 Defender rolls 6 3
Attacker rolls 1 5 3 Defender rolls 3 1
Attacker rolls 5 2 2 Defender rolls 2
Attacker rolls 6 1 4 Defender rolls 2
Attacker rolls 3 2 1 Defender rolls 4
Attacker rolls 4 1 4 Defender rolls 2
Attacker rolls 4 1 Defender rolls 4 4
Attacker rolls 1 6 5 Defender rolls 4 3
Attacker rolls 6 5 1 Defender rolls 3 2
Attacker rolls 2 4 4 Defender rolls 3
Attacker rolls 6 6 2 Defender rolls 2 2
Attacker rolls 2 2 3 Defender rolls 1 6
Attacker rolls 6 4 6 Defender rolls 5 4
Attacker rolls 2 3 3 Defender rolls 6
Attacker rolls 1 6 4 Defender rolls 6
Attacker rolls 1 3 6 Defender rolls 4
Attacker rolls 3 1 2 Defender rolls 5 6
Attacker rolls 2 6 6 Defender rolls 4 4
Attacker rolls 4 6 6 Defender rolls 4 3
Attacker rolls 2 4 6 Defender rolls 3 3
Attacker rolls 4 5 3 Defender rolls 5 6
Attacker rolls 2 1 1 Defender rolls 6 5
Attacker rolls 5 4 6 Defender rolls 6 4
Attacker rolls 6 1 1 Defender rolls 4 2
Attacker rolls 1 3 2 Defender rolls 5
Attacker rolls 3 4 4 Defender rolls 2
Attacker rolls 3 1 3 Defender rolls 2 6
Attacker rolls 5 3 4 Defender rolls 2 4
Attacker rolls 6 1 6 Defender rolls 4 3
Attacker rolls 2 3 6 Defender rolls 3
Attacker rolls 1 3 1 Defender rolls 4 6
Attacker rolls 3 5 6 Defender rolls 3 1
Attacker rolls 2 3 6 Defender rolls 4
Attacker rolls 1 1 2 Defender rolls 3 2
Attacker rolls 3 1 4 Defender rolls 5 3
Attacker rolls 6 6 4 Defender rolls 2 4
Attacker rolls 4 1 2 Defender rolls 4 2
Attacker rolls 3 4 4 Defender rolls 6 4
Attacker rolls 5 3 3 Defender rolls 3 2
Attacker rolls 3 4 4 Defender rolls 5 5
Attacker rolls 1 5 5 Defender rolls 5 6
Attacker rolls 3 5 5 Defender rolls 5 2
Attacker rolls 5 1 4 Defender rolls 4 3
Attacker rolls 2 2 1 Defender rolls 1 1
Attacker rolls 6 6 3 Defender rolls 6 1
Attacker rolls 2 1 2 Defender rolls 1 6
Attacker rolls 4 3 5 Defender rolls 2 3
Attacker rolls 2 1 3 Defender rolls 5 4
Attacker rolls 5 2 6 Defender rolls 3 2
Attacker rolls 5 6 4 Defender rolls 6
Attacker rolls 1 1 5 Defender rolls 1
Attacker rolls 6 5 5 Defender rolls 1
Attacker rolls 3 5 1 Defender rolls 1 3
Attacker rolls 2 6 5 Defender rolls 5
Attacker rolls 1 1 3 Defender rolls 3
Attacker rolls 5 6 5 Defender rolls 2
Attacker rolls 4 2 4 Defender rolls 2
Attacker rolls 5 5 5 Defender rolls 5 3
Attacker rolls 3 4 4 Defender rolls 3 1
Attacker rolls 2 2 6 Defender rolls 6 5

[Semirhage]

If only you knew the trouble I was going through, was in a great position in my real time game, Had 9 in Madagascar, attacked South Africa that had 3 on and lost 6, then left it

Wooh !!! Go South Africa !! (Sorry. Couldn't help myself.)

i saw someone lose 8 people without killing any and he was only fighting one guy

This doesn't look right. Just wait a minute for me to work this one out...1 min later...Suppose we forget that with equal dice the defender wins. Then this situation would be like the toss of a coin 8 times in a row. Since there are (2 to the power of possibilities, or 256 different possibilities, that would mean that there is statistically a 1 in 256 chance of losing 8 in a row against 1. But since the defender has a 1 in 6 chance of winning (by throwing equal to your dice), this is not entirely correct. But still, I think the chance of this are very small. Please correct me if I'm wrong here.

Here a link to a dice-throw-percentages table I thought everyone would like to take a look at. Enjoy.

[Semirhage]

Hey, just had another thought. If Lack, Twill etc. are trying to make the game as fair as possible (which I'm sure they are), they would have made sure the dice rolls for both A and D are taken from the same random generator. In other words, the dice rolls for the defender and the dice rolls for the attacker would both be made by the same algorithm (random generator). Why would he have them as different generators? It might just be bad luck that the higher dice rolls are going to the defender.

[cyberdaniel]

Maybe we are looking to this the wrong way. Maybe the dice are random when looking at a large set of data. But what about when you're looking to the first throw and the second one. In a 6 on 3 war the attacker has a 77% chance of winning, yet a lot of the times the defender is winning. Of course if the attacker attacks the second time with 4 on 3 he will have a 44% chance of winning and he'll probably loose just by odds.

Maybe the problem is with the first throws not all of them.

As for the 8 on 1 where the attacker has a 99.9% chance of winning, there must be something wrong since whenever I've faced that the defender has a die of 6 or 5 almost all the time and me, as the attacker, just 4 or numbers smaller, a few times 5.

[Pedronicus]

I'm sure theres nothing underhand going on - but if you'd had the sort of attacking failures that I've endured for the past 3 or 4 weeks... you too, would start to ask questions.

[nmap]

Your sample sizes are far too small. You will see a non-statistical distribution of throws over such a small size.

That's why casinos stay in business...

Also, past actions have no effect on future actions. If you toss a coin and get tails three times in a row what is the chance of heads on the next throw? It's still 50%. Same with risk, you can lose six times in a row, yet have the exact same chance to lose on the next roll (as long as the same no of dice are thrown). Search for gamblers fallacy if you don't agree with this.

My point is that streaks of bad and good luck are part of the game, if you want a game without the random element of dice then chess would be a good choice.

[wcaclimbing]

once i attacked 15 against 5 and never got the country i wanted cause i kept losing armies and i got down to 1 army for me and 1 army for defender

[cyberdaniel]

I've notice that in the same game you can have a really bad turn (in a game I lost 6 armies and destroyed 0) and a really good turn. Ever notice that in an escalating games when you are trying to destroy the enemy and you have like 50 armies it happens that a defender's 1 army winns 5 times against your 50, but after that you win like 5-7 turns? Why? In such a case its ok because you will never loose, but what happens when you have 12 armies and the defender 6? You lose at least 6 before winning something. And then you see players getting amoyed that they are loosing at the begining or the game no matter what they do.

[Marvaddin]

I've notice that in the same game you can have a really bad turn (in a game I lost 6 armies and destroyed 0) and a really bad turn.

I agree

[cyberdaniel]

oups, I was playing and writing at the same time, but seriously what's your opinion on that?

[Marvaddin]

My opinion? The dice are not ok. Specially because of the ridiculous rolls against 1 defending army. I believe that in a total of 500.000 rolls, the number should have an equal proportion, to be random, but I believe it doesnt happens. I, for example, am always rolling 2-1-1, or 2-3-1, or 1-2-2... I think Pedronicus make us realize this... attacker numbers are too low usually.

Really good turn? I heard about some... but I didnt have one as I have several really bad and some ridiculously (almost impossible) bad.

[cyberdaniel]

I noticed the really good turn just because I stoped attacking after the 2 bad roll and I had enough troops later in the game, but that isn't allways possible, it might depend on the first throws.

Currently I'm in a triples game. The first turn I chose to fortify one of my ally because he had a good position and he almost had Oceania. All well the first turn since I didn't attack and my friend took Oceania. The second turn arrived and my friends fortified my so I can prevent the oponents from taking S America and Africa, but my rolls were so bad that I lost 6 troops without killing any. I stoped attacking since I knew that I would loose the others as well. Finally today when I went and checked the game I'm down to 4 troops (I had 14) and the opponents didn't loose much. Instead my friend with the really good first turn lost like 16 troops to destroy 5.

How do you win this game where you only have bad dice and the oponents don't loose anything.

[juvanya]

Here are the actual statistical odds, but since this game uses a random number generator and not dice, the actual odds are likely to vary a little.

First post. YAY!

[niMic]

The % of thrown 1s, 2s, 3s, 4s, 5s and 6s will always be the same over an extended period of time, so if the "random generator" is truly random it will also generate that. Shouldn't be really hard to check.

[sully800]

However there are many other ways in which the generator could not be random.

It doesn't matter which dice are specifically thrown, but WHEN they are thrown because that is what determines the outcome. For example there could be a pattern of high attacking dice being thrown when low defending dice are throw....or vice versa....or perhaps when one throws high the other throws high. And when attacking is low defending is similarly low (This is what I think I've noticed a bit). And that would make some sense if the high and low dice are being calculated from the same source. That perhaps they tend to match each other too often (which would favor the defender). But when it gets out of that pattern it would also explain the streakiness of the dice (attacking 25 vs 25 and defeating the person with 20+ men left. Or losing 7vs1 or 8vs1.) Those are things I rarely if ever have seen in person but don't seem uncommon here.

Anyway I'm not saying there IS anything wrong with the dice because I don't know....I'm just saying that simply analyzing the # of times each number is thrown won't actually tell you if they are completely random.

[Pedronicus]

Game 43705 2 big attacks in one list here

I'll add them to the overall stats monday lunchtime

Attacker rolls 1 3 1 Defender rolls 4 5
Attacker rolls 4 3 6 Defender rolls 3 2
Attacker rolls 6 1 1 Defender rolls 5 1
Attacker rolls 6 6 2 Defender rolls 2
Attacker rolls 3 5 1 Defender rolls 5 5
Attacker rolls 5 2 6 Defender rolls 2
Attacker rolls 6 5 3 Defender rolls 5 3
Attacker rolls 5 2 2 Defender rolls 1 2
Attacker rolls 1 4 Defender rolls 5
Attacker rolls 2 Defender rolls 6
Attacker rolls 5 5 6 Defender rolls 3
Attacker rolls 4 1 2 Defender rolls 1
Attacker rolls 6 5 3 Defender rolls 1
Attacker rolls 6 6 5 Defender rolls 1
Attacker rolls 1 4 5 Defender rolls 6
Attacker rolls 1 4 4 Defender rolls 2
Attacker rolls 6 6 1 Defender rolls 5
Attacker rolls 4 2 2 Defender rolls 5
Attacker rolls 6 4 6 Defender rolls 2
Attacker rolls 4 6 2 Defender rolls 3 2
Attacker rolls 1 6 3 Defender rolls 6
Attacker rolls 3 2 3 Defender rolls 4
Attacker rolls 5 5 6 Defender rolls 1
Attacker rolls 5 1 2 Defender rolls 2 6
Attacker rolls 3 3 5 Defender rolls 5 3
Attacker rolls 1 1 2 Defender rolls 4
Attacker rolls 5 1 3 Defender rolls 2
Attacker rolls 4 3 1 Defender rolls 4 2
Attacker rolls 5 3 3 Defender rolls 4 6
Attacker rolls 2 5 6 Defender rolls 1 4
Attacker rolls 5 5 6 Defender rolls 5 5
Attacker rolls 6 3 4 Defender rolls 1
Attacker rolls 3 2 3 Defender rolls 3 5
Attacker rolls 3 3 3 Defender rolls 5 6
Attacker rolls 3 1 3 Defender rolls 1 5
Attacker rolls 4 6 1 Defender rolls 2 1
Attacker rolls 4 5 6 Defender rolls 2 2
Attacker rolls 6 6 2 Defender rolls 5 4
Attacker rolls 1 2 3 Defender rolls 5 2
Attacker rolls 5 4 6 Defender rolls 1 1
Attacker rolls 6 2 3 Defender rolls 6 2
Attacker rolls 1 5 1 Defender rolls 6 3
Attacker rolls 3 1 3 Defender rolls 6 5
Attacker rolls 4 2 6 Defender rolls 6 4
Attacker rolls 3 1 5 Defender rolls 1 2
Attacker rolls 5 6 5 Defender rolls 2 3
Attacker rolls 4 5 2 Defender rolls 3 6
Attacker rolls 4 1 5 Defender rolls 5
Attacker rolls 4 5 1 Defender rolls 5
Attacker rolls 1 6 4 Defender rolls 1
Attacker rolls 3 5 5 Defender rolls 3 5
Attacker rolls 4 4 5 Defender rolls 2 4
Attacker rolls 5 3 2 Defender rolls 3
Attacker rolls 1 4 4 Defender rolls 5 1
Attacker rolls 4 3 2 Defender rolls 3 5
Attacker rolls 2 5 1 Defender rolls 4 4
Attacker rolls 3 2 5 Defender rolls 2 1
Attacker rolls 3 5 4 Defender rolls 4
Attacker rolls 4 4 6 Defender rolls 3
Attacker rolls 4 5 1 Defender rolls 6
Attacker rolls 6 1 2 Defender rolls 1
Attacker rolls 3 4 4 Defender rolls 4 3
Attacker rolls 4 3 2 Defender rolls 5
Attacker rolls 4 4 5 Defender rolls 5
Attacker rolls 1 1 3 Defender rolls 1
Attacker rolls 1 5 3 Defender rolls 2 1
Attacker rolls 6 4 2 Defender rolls 5
Attacker rolls 6 6 1 Defender rolls 3
Attacker rolls 2 5 5 Defender rolls 3
Attacker rolls 4 2 1 Defender rolls 3 1
Attacker rolls 2 6 6 Defender rolls 1 3
Attacker rolls 3 1 3 Defender rolls 3
Attacker rolls 5 3 5 Defender rolls 1
Attacker rolls 5 1 4 Defender rolls 2 3
Attacker rolls 2 4 2 Defender rolls 6
Attacker rolls 1 2 1 Defender rolls 2
Attacker rolls 6 2 2 Defender rolls 6
Attacker rolls 3 3 6 Defender rolls 5
Attacker rolls 6 3 4 Defender rolls 3
Attacker rolls 2 2 4 Defender rolls 3
Attacker rolls 1 2 4 Defender rolls 2 1
Attacker rolls 4 4 2 Defender rolls 2 1
Attacker rolls 1 2 3 Defender rolls 4
Attacker rolls 2 6 3 Defender rolls 1
Attacker rolls 3 2 6 Defender rolls 3 2
Attacker rolls 1 1 2 Defender rolls 5 6
Attacker rolls 6 5 4 Defender rolls 3 6
Attacker rolls 6 5 3 Defender rolls 6
Attacker rolls 3 3 1 Defender rolls 6
Attacker rolls 1 6 4 Defender rolls 2
Attacker rolls 5 5 2 Defender rolls 4
Attacker rolls 1 1 3 Defender rolls 2 5
Attacker rolls 5 3 4 Defender rolls 5 2
Attacker rolls 5 5 1 Defender rolls 6 5
Attacker rolls 4 4 6 Defender rolls 3 2
Attacker rolls 5 3 4 Defender rolls 1 4
Attacker rolls 3 1 1 Defender rolls 3 3
Attacker rolls 4 2 1 Defender rolls 1 6
Attacker rolls 1 5 1 Defender rolls 6 4
Attacker rolls 5 3 2 Defender rolls 4 4
Attacker rolls 5 4 1 Defender rolls 4
Attacker rolls 1 3 Defender rolls 5
Attacker rolls 5 Defender rolls 6

[4 U 2 NV]

The way i find it is that some days i'll have great days with the dice where i never lose, then the next day it could be completely opposite and i'll lose them all as an attacker. and this goes through not just for one game but for all the ones i'm playing.

Just play when you have a good day and wait it out when you have a bad one.

[Pedronicus]

Game 43705 - Attack threw 303 dice defend threw 156 dice

the below figures are a percentage

Attack | Defend
18.15 | 17.31 (1)
14.85 | 18.59 (2)
17.82 | 17.31 (3)
16.50 | 12.82 (4)
17.82 | 19.87 (5)
14.85 | 14.10 (6)

Total of all games in this thread - Attack threw 988 dice, defend threw 550 dice

Attack | Defend
18.72 | 15.09 (1)
16.70 | 16.18 (2)
17.51 | 17.45 (3)
15.38 | 16.91 (4)
15.99 | 18.55 (5)
15.69 | 15.82 (6)

after almost 1000 dice analysed of attackers - the amount of 1's thrownn is still too high.

I'm not going to analyse anymore of these throws - as 988 is a fair amount to use as a sample.

why are there so many 1's being thrown by attackers?

[Phobia]

lack, get some new dice, quickly!

[lackattack]

I think if you had a much bigger sample size, you would see a lot less variance.

[Pedronicus]

I think if you had a much bigger sample size, you would see a lot less variance.

a sample size of 988 attacking dice should be enough for most people to realize that things would of evened out.

I'm not going to add anymore to the sample. I've proved with maths what I've been seeing with my own eyes over the last month or two.

sticking your head in the sand and demanding a larger sample size isn't the answer i was expecting. There is a problem with the dice.