Friends & Enemies & Enemies & That Other Guy - Wolves Won

[Charle]

Let's see how it goes by the end of the week, if it is still going strong, nobody lynched and you guys need more time, I will extend it with another week, few days or whatever you need. The point is for you guys to have fun, and as soon as that tapers down we put a deadline.

So actually, let's hear what the others say as well, this is your game after all, I am just the referee.

I like day lengths to be absolute. The evil parties in this game are planning around an end of day date so this certainty favours them more, but I just dont like surprises.

The one thing I AM in favour of is that the day always ends with the top vote - whether that is a lynch or sleep. Ironically enough with the idea that a lynch will happen also if a lynch is the popular vote with only 3 votes, people often consolidate wagons earlier and you get closer to a majority vote..

Just to clarify, end of day is still Monday 14H00 UTC. It might only change if the majority of you wants more time, but at the moment it seems only Sonic that needed more time.

I must say I liked the "top vote system" in your game and it made it very interesting, but I decided to have a majority lynch basis in this game for 2 reasons: (1) That is what the history games did and (2) Not everybody is in favour of first/any day lynching, meaning if we do not have a majority by end of day, then there will be a "No Lynch" automatically. This makes it also interesting in the debate between players that the "lynchers" trying to get all the same votes in (while they have different opinions) and the "no-lynchers" trying to spread the votes.

Thanks very much for your assistance EW, it makes life easy for newby Mods

[Loose Canon]

Charle I want to extend.

I don't know if Max is going to be replaced or not D1 till he is.

If he isn't then I will want Max lynched.

If he is I will want to assess his replacement at least and explore other lynching options.

[SoN!c]

Extreme I specifically asked DDS and Traf (and Max).
I asked them who they thought if scum would be most likely to kill them.
Good to know who you as scum would be likely to kill, and I'm sure your hypothetical victims will thank you for painting targets on their backs.

I agree with Loose here. First it doesn't sound 100% town at all (pleasing Rag here for obvotious reasons). And second i find something very fishy about EW's end of day string of posts. It's like EW was waiting on deadline less then 6 days to come alive and execute his plan.

First EW says this :"

I like day lengths to be absolute. The evil parties in this game are planning around an end of day date so this certainty favours them more, but I just dont like surprises."

.., then shortly after EW answers a question directed at somebody else to paint some big targets on other people's back?

I remember saying you in the beginning of the game Wolves should target Mafia and vice versa in order to win it. Now you say this. What is it? Coming from you, whatever it is, im pretty sure it will be a strategy of some sort. The timing alone says it is.

And if so: yes, you have to wonder, is painting those targets on others a sophisticated end of day strategy to make sure the other scum faction doesn't hit you nor your scumpartner? Throwing in some decoy bait just before end of day? Making sure everybody looks away from you, at exactly the right end of day moment?

[Extreme Ways]

Extreme I specifically asked DDS and Traf (and Max).
I asked them who they thought if scum would be most likely to kill them.
Good to know who you as scum would be likely to kill, and I'm sure your hypothetical victims will thank you for painting targets on their backs.

I'd like you to interact with the excerpt I posted earlier about lynch/no lynch day 1. Are we hoping that scum will kill scum for us?

[Extreme Ways]

Extreme I specifically asked DDS and Traf (and Max).
I asked them who they thought if scum would be most likely to kill them.
Good to know who you as scum would be likely to kill, and I'm sure your hypothetical victims will thank you for painting targets on their backs.

I agree with Loose here. First it doesn't sound 100% town at all (pleasing Rag here for obvotious reasons). And second i find something very fishy about EW's end of day string of posts. It's like EW was waiting on deadline less then 6 days to come alive and execute his plan.

First EW says this :"

I like day lengths to be absolute. The evil parties in this game are planning around an end of day date so this certainty favours them more, but I just dont like surprises."

.., then shortly after EW answers a question directed at somebody else to paint some big targets on other people's back?

I remember saying you in the beginning of the game Wolves should target Mafia and vice versa in order to win it. Now you say this. What is it? Coming from you, whatever it is, im pretty sure it will be a strategy of some sort. The timing alone says it is.

And if so: yes, you have to wonder, is painting those targets on others a sophisticated end of day strategy to make sure the other scum faction doesn't hit you nor your scumpartner? Throwing in some decoy bait just before end of day? Making sure everybody looks away from you, at exactly the right end of day moment?

Have you considered I simply misread the question? Because the actual question was weird, and this one was logical in my eyes.

I think "which scum is likely to kill me" is a bs question because you dont know how other people think. Moreover, if say you are scum it also depends on who your scumbuddy is. Town find townies by reading their posts and concluding over a larger time period that they are uninformed, and are genuinely trying to solve the game. You should be able to understand their thought process. If they ask questions, you should want them to follow up on the answers. "Who would kill me if they were scum" does not help in showing you are uninformed.

Anyway, I answered the question whilst it was not directed at me because town benefits from more posts/content to interact with.

[SoN!c]

(Max can answer too if he would be kind enough to grace us with his presence)

Max was fileted on global chat by Votanic yesterday about this game. I think he is done here.

Does this mean we wont get a super townsided vot-hosted game? Sad

You misread this too. It's Max who got shredded on global chat (by Votanic). It's Max who i think is done here (Max did not posted anything in here after the GC filet moment while he is under pressure to do so). A lot of misreading then.

[Loose Canon]

I seriuosly see no point in Lynch D1.

I have said that in almost all set up if not all. ut in thiset up to me makes even less sense.

You guys started wagons early on Strike and DDS and Max. However you quickly unvote. some say, "why unvote so quickly we want to generate preassure". What are you guys expecting for an answer?. I mean it, like in other set ups with roles people did give tell of his roles on D1, also on D1 maybe you could convice me we can see how they react. some people even softclaimed on D1. but what its the point here?

A mason should under no reason said it's a mason.
A townie should not say he is no mason 100% cause that reduces the targets for mafia to target at night.
A werewolf/mafia will not say they are mafia/werewolf most likely will not fake claim mason.

so once again what's what you guys actually looking on D1. and again odds is we lynch a good guy on D1. So why so on board with it?

I can't think of a scenario where from towns perspective a D1 lynch would make more sense.
With factions who know each other split 2 2 2.

You are a smart guy.
You waited till the game was in a what's going to happen to Max is the Deadline going to stick sort of limbo then pitched in with your anti lynch leaning.

FOS Traf

[Maxleod]

(Max can answer too if he would be kind enough to grace us with his presence)

Max was fileted on global chat by Votanic yesterday about this game. I think he is done here.

Does this mean we wont get a super townsided vot-hosted game? Sad

You misread this too. It's Max who got shredded on global chat (by Votanic). It's Max who i think is done here (Max did not posted anything in here after the GC filet moment while he is under pressure to do so). A lot of misreading then.

You got it all wrong Sonic. Vot is butt-hurt because I kicked his sorry ass in a game. He's insignificant. An insect.
And I don't feel any pressure. You're all insignificant too.

[Ragian]

Now, it sounds like Max is Vot's multi

[SoN!c]

Vot is butt-hurt because I kicked his sorry ass in a game. He's insignificant. An insect.
And I don't feel any pressure. You're all insignificant too.

Glad to hear that. Can i interest you then in Votanical Insect Repellent, on offer today, only R210.00 incl VAT.

The company slogan of Votanical Insect Repellent is "Meet our very own farm-tested Votanical Insect Repellent! It is highly effective against not only flying insects such as wolfmosquitos and mobgnats, but also against developing ticks". It is aromatically uplifting and soft on the skin, thus suitable for all ages including your own. It contains a natural lavender hydromason base, plus essential oils known to twart off insignificant insects and little raglan bugs, including Fynbos Kong oils of Kooigoed and extreme levels of Wilde-als (wormwood) with Kakiebos. The calming healing qualities of these essential oils also help to treat sonicstings and loose bites, reducing that trafing itching feeling you might have when thinking on coming in here daily and can also be used on animals in case your wondering.

Limited-time offer!

[Loose Canon]

Quality post Sonic

[TrafalgarLaw01]

I seriuosly see no point in Lynch D1.

I have said that in almost all set up if not all. ut in thiset up to me makes even less sense.

You guys started wagons early on Strike and DDS and Max. However you quickly unvote. some say, "why unvote so quickly we want to generate preassure". What are you guys expecting for an answer?. I mean it, like in other set ups with roles people did give tell of his roles on D1, also on D1 maybe you could convice me we can see how they react. some people even softclaimed on D1. but what its the point here?

A mason should under no reason said it's a mason.
A townie should not say he is no mason 100% cause that reduces the targets for mafia to target at night.
A werewolf/mafia will not say they are mafia/werewolf most likely will not fake claim mason.

so once again what's what you guys actually looking on D1. and again odds is we lynch a good guy on D1. So why so on board with it?

I can't think of a scenario where from towns perspective a D1 lynch would make more sense.
With factions who know each other split 2 2 2.

You are a smart guy.
You waited till the game was in a what's going to happen to Max is the Deadline going to stick sort of limbo then pitched in with your anti lynch leaning.

FOS Traf

Can you explain why it makes sense a lynch D1?

[PepeAtila]

I don't know what to do. .... but Traff, can you explain what we do if we don't lynch during the day?

[Extreme Ways]

I seriuosly see no point in Lynch D1.

I have said that in almost all set up if not all. ut in thiset up to me makes even less sense.

You guys started wagons early on Strike and DDS and Max. However you quickly unvote. some say, "why unvote so quickly we want to generate preassure". What are you guys expecting for an answer?. I mean it, like in other set ups with roles people did give tell of his roles on D1, also on D1 maybe you could convice me we can see how they react. some people even softclaimed on D1. but what its the point here?

A mason should under no reason said it's a mason.
A townie should not say he is no mason 100% cause that reduces the targets for mafia to target at night.
A werewolf/mafia will not say they are mafia/werewolf most likely will not fake claim mason.

so once again what's what you guys actually looking on D1. and again odds is we lynch a good guy on D1. So why so on board with it?

I can't think of a scenario where from towns perspective a D1 lynch would make more sense.
With factions who know each other split 2 2 2.

You are a smart guy.
You waited till the game was in a what's going to happen to Max is the Deadline going to stick sort of limbo then pitched in with your anti lynch leaning.

FOS Traf

Can you explain why it makes sense a lynch D1?

Am I being ignored?

[TrafalgarLaw01]

I don't know what to do. .... but Traff, can you explain what we do if we don't lynch during the day?

I am only against lynching D1, not from D2 forward. Lynch its the power of town kinda and should be used but for when it makes sense. not just lynch for the sake of lynch. Chnaces are we lynch a townie and we dont learn anything from it.

[TrafalgarLaw01]

I seriuosly see no point in Lynch D1.

I have said that in almost all set up if not all. ut in thiset up to me makes even less sense.

You guys started wagons early on Strike and DDS and Max. However you quickly unvote. some say, "why unvote so quickly we want to generate preassure". What are you guys expecting for an answer?. I mean it, like in other set ups with roles people did give tell of his roles on D1, also on D1 maybe you could convice me we can see how they react. some people even softclaimed on D1. but what its the point here?

A mason should under no reason said it's a mason.
A townie should not say he is no mason 100% cause that reduces the targets for mafia to target at night.
A werewolf/mafia will not say they are mafia/werewolf most likely will not fake claim mason.

so once again what's what you guys actually looking on D1. and again odds is we lynch a good guy on D1. So why so on board with it?

I can't think of a scenario where from towns perspective a D1 lynch would make more sense.
With factions who know each other split 2 2 2.

You are a smart guy.
You waited till the game was in a what's going to happen to Max is the Deadline going to stick sort of limbo then pitched in with your anti lynch leaning.

FOS Traf

Can you explain why it makes sense a lynch D1?

Am I being ignored?

me ignoring you? or Loose ignoring you? Did you asked me anything?

[Loose Canon]

I'm curious how he got to his numbers, if masons are harder to eliminate then surely so are scum

My maths is slightly wrong which is scummy for an accountant in real life. Its 56% not 53% blaming it on a scummy keyboard though.

Basically my presumption is a Mason on the verge of being lynched D1 would claim.
A fake Mason claim by a scum faction D1 would be called out and the calling out would be verifiable by the other Mason if the real Mason got to -1.
So I don't think a fake mason claim by scum is an option.

Every faction has 2 known to each other D1.
That has made me rethink a bit of my logic.

Yes there are arguments that you can't simplify to 5/9 but I'd say it tends more to 5/9 than 7/11
I think the arguments that you can't simplify to 5/9 are more around the possibility that scum factions will gravitate naturally towards vanilla town and that noone will defend vanilla town. Lets call this natural gravitation X
So perhaps mislynch probability is (5/9)+X rather than (7/11)+X

I think what we can agree on is D1 Masons are harder to eliminate than Scum, but Scum are harder to eliminate than Vanilla Town?

We can all think about what value we each place on X - but what I would say is its not necessarily that That High because won't each 2 faction have a natural preference to split their votes?

Traf, lynching ~D1 basically has a 56% chance of town D1 mislynch vs a 33% chance of winning (assuming this is a balanced game)
I'm not sure if I can be bothered to run a 10 game simulation of no intel random voting (except for your known faction) both with or without lynching D1.
I've run it for 2 games with a D1 lynch and scum won both times - and I'm tired - don't have a Strike like brain.
Shows importance of intel seeking I guess.
Max is offering nothing - I'm sticking on lynching Max.
Still have a FOS on you though.

[Ragian]

I don't know what to do. .... but Traff, can you explain what we do if we don't lynch during the day?

I am only against lynching D1, not from D2 forward. Lynch its the power of town kinda and should be used but for when it makes sense. not just lynch for the sake of lynch. Chnaces are we lynch a townie and we dont learn anything from it.

Well, the last bit is bullshit. Unless you lynch someone who's submarining.

[Ragian]

@Loose, lynching Max: What do you learn if he flips town, scum, mason?

[SoN!c]

Look, majority said let's lynch but deadline is still happening on Monday 14H00 UTC..and we are not getting even close.. 6 votes needed on the same candidate.. we are way off that mark.

Traf and Pepe clearly missed EW his "lynch D1 bible" but thats ok. Others missed vital information too..

Whatever the argument is on lynching D1 win statistics let's forget all of that and go with town. Majority here said "LYNCH! BABY LYNCH!!!". So do let's lynch

And these are the lynch candidates as per current votes (unless mistaken - but knowing Charle will correct asap):

DDS “DROP DEAD SEXY” (2) - Max, Strike*, Pepe (*Strike already saying he will unvote when it reaches L-2 so i left him out on actual real lynch votes)
Max (2) - LC, Sonic
Traf (2) - EW, Kong
Devante (1) - Ragian

Still voteless: Devante, Traf, DDS

So, is this just gonna end in a Good Town, Bad Mob & Ugly Wolf Mexican voting Standoff? Nobody wanting to switch votes playing Texas Hold Em? Sure looks that way to me..

Also EW and Ragian both putting in a very late vote..., i must mention that, both knowing it would devide town?? Yuuup yes, for sure... Also with EW "painting targets in red mode on everybody else" that feels kinda weird.. Then again, i get a honest feel about Ragians vote on his nemesis Devante.. Anyways, deadline is real. C'mon guys, let's get together? Jajajaaa! We can do this.
---
Ragian, you have only "one vote candidate" (Devante), so to break off the Mexican voting Standoff i think you need to place your bet on somebody else, or rally support real fast..
---
Also: Current posts in favor of extending deadline (also 6 votes needed as Charle said : "deadline stays Monday 14H00 UTC unless majority wants to extend"):

2, Sonic, Loose (6 needed)

PS: im standing strong with Loose - everybody here agreed he reads town 100% and town needs to follow town.

And Yes Ragian, i get it: Max will flip town probably (2 to 3) but town needs to be united.. So follow Loose. Also i think Devante will flip town too... So If we really want to learn anything i would vote the sus Wolf Pair or EW. But im following town leader Loose here, and given the game set-up, we all should.

[Loose Canon]

@Loose, lynching Max: What do you learn if he flips town, scum, mason?

If he flips town - you probably learn zilch - but thats exactly the same answer as the sum you'd learn from what he'd contribute the whole of the rest of the game.

If he flips scum - not a lot more - except maybe who defended him/voted for someone else;
Traf came late to the party going no lynch when it looked like max might be replaced, and there was a deadline looming or not hiatus in the game. He chose a moment to advocate
no lynch that could be construed as supporting Max.

You have asked the same sort of questioning the soundness of lynching Max as you did last game.
Ok Max was town then and you were scum - but I reckon it would be worth a go if you and Max were same scum faction this game.

If he's Mason and in danger of being lynched he knows what would stop a mislynch.

Thing is no scum faction will kill him - why should they? - better to kill a player whose a threat to each of their factions.
And if he survives D1 lynch and in this set up in particular he is more and more of a problem to town because he might be scum.

ODDS say 56% he will flip Town. If he does I'll own that.

[TrafalgarLaw01]

Why do you keep saying it's 56% you math is wrong. I'ts 63%
yes the chances to lynch townie decreases for Masons. But how can they convice everyone of the people who are town withouth giving anything away on D1.

[Extreme Ways]

I seriuosly see no point in Lynch D1.

I have said that in almost all set up if not all. ut in thiset up to me makes even less sense.

You guys started wagons early on Strike and DDS and Max. However you quickly unvote. some say, "why unvote so quickly we want to generate preassure". What are you guys expecting for an answer?. I mean it, like in other set ups with roles people did give tell of his roles on D1, also on D1 maybe you could convice me we can see how they react. some people even softclaimed on D1. but what its the point here?

A mason should under no reason said it's a mason.
A townie should not say he is no mason 100% cause that reduces the targets for mafia to target at night.
A werewolf/mafia will not say they are mafia/werewolf most likely will not fake claim mason.

so once again what's what you guys actually looking on D1. and again odds is we lynch a good guy on D1. So why so on board with it?

I can't think of a scenario where from towns perspective a D1 lynch would make more sense.
With factions who know each other split 2 2 2.

You are a smart guy.
You waited till the game was in a what's going to happen to Max is the Deadline going to stick sort of limbo then pitched in with your anti lynch leaning.

FOS Traf

Can you explain why it makes sense a lynch D1?

Am I being ignored?

me ignoring you? or Loose ignoring you? Did you asked me anything?

Both, kinda.

I posted an argument in favour of lynching d1 earlier and got little response. Later, I asked Loose to read through my post and interact with it:

Extreme I specifically asked DDS and Traf (and Max).
I asked them who they thought if scum would be most likely to kill them.
Good to know who you as scum would be likely to kill, and I'm sure your hypothetical victims will thank you for painting targets on their backs.

I'd like you to interact with the excerpt I posted earlier about lynch/no lynch day 1. Are we hoping that scum will kill scum for us?

I didnt get a response targeted at this but you later do post:

I seriuosly see no point in Lynch D1.

I have said that in almost all set up if not all. ut in thiset up to me makes even less sense.

You guys started wagons early on Strike and DDS and Max. However you quickly unvote. some say, "why unvote so quickly we want to generate preassure". What are you guys expecting for an answer?. I mean it, like in other set ups with roles people did give tell of his roles on D1, also on D1 maybe you could convice me we can see how they react. some people even softclaimed on D1. but what its the point here?

A mason should under no reason said it's a mason.
A townie should not say he is no mason 100% cause that reduces the targets for mafia to target at night.
A werewolf/mafia will not say they are mafia/werewolf most likely will not fake claim mason.

so once again what's what you guys actually looking on D1. and again odds is we lynch a good guy on D1. So why so on board with it?

I can't think of a scenario where from towns perspective a D1 lynch would make more sense.
With factions who know each other split 2 2 2.

You are a smart guy.
You waited till the game was in a what's going to happen to Max is the Deadline going to stick sort of limbo then pitched in with your anti lynch leaning.

FOS Traf

Can you explain why it makes sense a lynch D1?

And while it's not directed at me, it feels weird to have you not deny my initial post yet criticise Loose for wanting to lynch d1.

[TrafalgarLaw01]

And while it's not directed at me, it feels weird to have you not deny my initial post yet criticise Loose for wanting to lynch d1.

I might need to re read. But what is your initial post on lynch/no lynch?

My statemant was to everyone that is easily on lynch train without a real argument - Pepe, Sonic, Max, Kong, might be missing someone.

Loose has an argument I just think he has the wrong math.

[DirtyDishSoap]

I think it would be generally helpful to start getting together lists of how we feel about other players atm.

Townish.
1. Sonic - Same left field posts I've seen, and I'm generally leaning this to be town.
2. Loose - Same as above but with added math. Yaaaay.
3. Mr Magoo - Refuting alot of the same non sense and not running around trying to get a train going. Being a bit more reserved.

Neutral.
1. EW - Didn't say too much until more or less prodded recently.
2. Strike - Aside from bad naming, he's also relatively quiet.
3. Max - is Max
4. Traf - Traf
5. Kong - Kong

Scummy.
1. Dev - The joke not joke was odd, or at least how it was worded.
2. Pepe - Really intent on being a follower rather than a leader. "Lol iunno, lynch this guy" is pretty lazy.

SK.
DDS