Terminator Mafia Game Thread Mafia Win!

[Rodion]

You're suggesting probabilities based on "It would be better if it were like this". That's not the point in mafia. You're supposed to figure out "Which of these is the most realistic"?

No, I'm not. Refer back to the 4 scenarios. The correct mathematical analysis should be:

"what happens if I trust Blake?" - (likelihood of A x chance of winning if A) + (likelihood of B x chance of winning if B)
"what happens if I trust Rodion?" - (likelihood of C x chance of winning if C) + (likelihood of D x chance of winning if D)
You then match "trust-Blake % of winning the game" against "trust-Rodion % of winning the game" and see which is bigger (they don't necessarily add up to 100%).

You must understand that I'm not using the formula to suggest "likelihood of A+B" is smaller than "likelihood of C+D". That suggestion is the result of all our arguments so far (there are 5 pages of back and forth discussion and you+freezie+Tails slipping like you're drunk in a rainy night).

I'm merely suggesting that, if you can't tell who's telling the truth here, it's mathematically sound to trust Rodion, as "chance of winning if D" is considerably better than "chance of winning if A", while B and C pretty much offset each other. Again, I've never said that that it's the only thing you have to ponder, but it's mathematically proven to be one hell of a tiebreaker.

[TA1LGUNN3R]

Rodion...I think you missed my last post...

SHIELD WASN'T TARGETED... ONE OF THE JOHN CONNORS WAS TARGETED, BUT SHIELD, AS BODYGUARD, TOOK THE HIT AND DIED. Thus my initial suspicion was null and void, and I'm glad I didn't voice that because it would have fucked somebody. I didn't actually read the day-scene, just who was killed in the night.

So cool your jets, man.

-Tails

[Rodion]

The pressure is *slightly* going too high ( once again Sorry Rodion, didn't meant to sound harsh..I really get in the game sometimes )

Don't worry, so do I. I won't hold it against you.

Besides, workday really did a nice job of pissing me before I got to reading mafia posts.

Rodion...I think you missed my last post...

SHIELD WASN'T TARGETED... ONE OF THE JOHN CONNORS WAS TARGETED, BUT SHIELD, AS BODYGUARD, TOOK THE HIT AND DIED. Thus my initial suspicion was null and void, and I'm glad I didn't voice that because it would have fucked somebody. I didn't actually read the day-scene, just who was killed in the night.

So cool your jets, man.

-Tails

I didn't miss it, I just didn't link cause and consequence (mea culpa). Now I see you have an interesting theory of shield not being the actual target. You can't be 100% sure, but it's still worth considering. I still find it odd that Shield would risk his life to save someone that didn't claim (he could be sacrificing his power role to save a VT), though.

[00iCon]

I just thought of another point pro-blake-lynch. When he flips as, let's assume a cop, then unless saf is a bastard mod, we will also find out whether or not he was insane as part of his role.

To this extent, I wonder why Blake has only claimed his ability so far and not the name and year/movie of his role.

[00iCon]

Also, AoG, Violet, MeDeFe and Jeradoo. I need your inputs to continue.

I find it weird how the first deadline gave us no time, yet this day is dragging on.

[jeraado]

vote Rodion

Based on the fact that there wasn't any great evidence either way prior to blake's claim, I don't think there's enough to make a call that he is definitely scum, and in the absence of any real alternate evidence, I think we need to hear a claim from Rodion to compare against blake's part-claim

And freezie, really? Fair enough to ask for some input, but you FOS the three players who aren't posting, in the midst of rodion and blake's back-and-forth. That's only going to distract from what's going on.

[Rodion]

L-2 with possibly a hidden mafia waiting to hammer is too close for comfort.

I'm Marcus Wright (from Terminator Salvation), Town Bus Driver.

1 - "But you said you considered it unlikely to be a bus driver on this game! You said it more than once!"

Yes, I did, that was part of not allowing scum to know what I'm capable of doing. Given the right "switch", I could protect a townie at night + kill a mafia, a power too good to waste by roleclaiming, which you just forced me to do.

2 - "Did you use your power? How?"

I swapped Shield and 00iCon. Shield died, meaning 00iCon was the one targeted (unless I got roleblocked without knowing). That's why I'm saying ooIcon is town. So I say he is town unless someone steps up and says they specifically got me roleblocked on night 1.

3 - "Why swap Shield and ooIcon?"

I found it pretty hard to accurately find 2 targets to swap. I aimed for 1 mafia and 1 townie (but not AoG, as mafia wouldn't win anything by killing a VT), in the hopes of seeing that townie being targeted and getting to protect him + to NK a mafia. For thinking ooiCon could be townie I just compared his approach to AoG's: both had suggested a day 1 no lynch and AoG was pretty much cleared as nobody counterclaimed him. That not meant he was town, but I thought he was a safe "town bet". I took Shield as my "mafia bet" because he speculated about AoG not being town after he had fully roleclaimed (name + movie + role) and nobody counterclaimed John Connor from T2. In the end, I swapped town with town and now I hope 00iCon has a stronger role than Shield had.

4 - "If you knew Shield wasn't targeted by mafia, why did you pressure Tail into saying which mafia he thought had targeted Shield?"

It's always good to get more information. The primary idea was to give Tail enough rope to hang himself (I stil have him as top 3 scummy), but whatever he said could perhaps be analysed from more angles and give more clues. He ultimately got away with it by saying Shield wasn't targeted (he indeed wasn't, but he got the reasons for that wrong).

I tried to cover the basics here before anyone gets me to L-1 just for the hidden mafia to hammer me and likely seal the game. Let me know if you want anything else weighed.

[jeraado]

unvote. Its too late for me to properly consider this, so my unvote is simply to prevent anything silly happening while Im asleep. I'll read this and post something within 24 hrs

[blakebowling]

The way I read the scene, it seemed that shield died because he was protecting John Connor.
So either:
icon is another John Connor (or AoG was totally lying, and icon didn't counter claim)
OR
Rodion is lying
OR
Rodion is telling the truth about his role, but got roleblocked OR shield died because he got protected
- This would also mean:
--I'm an insane cop
--I'm Lying
--There is another busdriver, who switched Rodion with someone who is Guilty
OR
Rodion is telling the truth about his role, he didn't get roleblocked, the mafia attempted to kill icon, and the John Connor part of the day scene has nothing to do with anything

I'm really not sure which one it is, and if Rodion does turn out to b town, well I'll feel like I fucked up the game for all of the town.

Unvote

[safariguy5]

Vote Count

Rodion(2)- freezie, tails
blake(3)- Rodion, naxus, icon

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Things are dragging, I'll set a deadline of 1 week. On April 27th, this day will end.

For the people who are being less than active, I'll wait 1 more day then start replacing. Seriously guys, "I have nothing to add to this conversation" makes no sense as voting needs to occur to move the day along.

[freezie]

And freezie, really? Fair enough to ask for some input, but you FOS the three players who aren't posting, in the midst of rodion and blake's back-and-forth. That's only going to distract from what's going on.

I am surely not distracting everybody, as a FOS doesn't count in the records. It points out toward someone I find suspicious. And with 3 days of full discussion between half the players, I needed to find a way to get you 3 lurkers/lazy players to post.

Guess what, it worked for you. But, it also means you were watching the thread and saying absolutly nothing either.

[00iCon]

Rodion is telling the truth about his role, he didn't get roleblocked, the mafia attempted to kill icon, and the John Connor part of the day scene has nothing to do with anything

This is most likely.

[MeDeFe]

Rodion is telling the truth about his role, he didn't get roleblocked, the mafia attempted to kill icon, and the John Connor part of the day scene has nothing to do with anything

This is most likely.

Considering that the T-800 in Terminator 2 was a bodyguard, it actually is likely.

[00iCon]

^what I meant is the John connor bit is flavor text.

[00iCon]

On a side note, this is weird, I expected Marcus to be the miller. When you cut him open, he's a robot.

[MeDeFe]

^what I meant is the John connor bit is flavor text.

I know, and because of the role of the T-800 in the movie Terminator 2 I say that it's likely you're correct about it being mere flavour.

[safariguy5]

Announcement

strike wolf has replaced VioIet

[Rodion]

Welcome!

I'll ponder on everything that was said after my last post after Wolf's first thoughts.

[strike wolf]

Ok first some general thoughts on things. This game almost definitely has a 9-3 set up. Safari likes his mafias balanced with about 20-25% scum. There is also no evidence of any independently working factions. Given this both freezie and tails are both experienced so I find it unlikely that both are scum jumping to a scum mates defense and attack. Scum try not to associate themselves with each other.

Expanding on that let us assume the following:

In the movies there are 3 John Connor (t2, t3, and salvation (deceased)), 2 sarah connor (t1 and t2), 2 kyle's (t1 and salvation) and 2 good arnies (t2 (deceased) and t3). That would be 9 town roles however there are also other very important roles that don't fit into this (marcus (salvation) and brewster (t3)) group. My conclusion is we should be more wary of some of these claims that fit into the prior group. This game was created in anticipation that the multiple time lines would help mafia hide themselves among the town.

As far as claims I wouldn't be so quick to say that there are no insane cops. Paranoid and naive are extremely unlikely but insane is possible based on it can actually be helpful. Plus given the nature of some of the characters in the game imsane kind of fits...

As far as rodion. I feel you do a bit much as far as making gray areas black and white (the cop should act like this if he's smart so since he didn't he is most certainly not the cop etc.). The quick hammer was also very scummy day 1...however I find your claim fairly believable...the role is a big one and the flavor in my opinion fits his character. Beyond that based on my theory of how I believe safari set up this game his character should be in it. I suppose it is possible for marcus to be a miller however I've never heard of a busdriving miller)

The problem here is that blake is also very likely to be a cop. If he is claiming the role I think he is just about as likely to be in the game as Marcus (cop claim plus flavor about everyone doubting him) though at this point I think you need to give a full name claim blake. His actions day 1 while slightly scummy appear to me to be more aligned with a power role trying not to stir up too much water than mafia, so I think he is probably telling the truth.

So strike if both the main suspects are probably innocent, who is scum? That I will get to in my next post.

[MeDeFe]

I've been re-reading day 2, and facing the looming threat of replacement (which I definitely don't want to happen) and the somewhat more distant threat of the deadline...

vote blakebowling

Rodion made his full claim over 24 hours ago and noone has counterclaimed Marcus Wright. If anyone had, Rodion would've most probably been lynched by now. I agree with strike wolf that it's time we got a full claim from you as well (I actually thought the same thing before reading his post, I got ninja'd), but unlike strike I don't know whether safari has someone prepared to replace me and as such have to demonstrate activity.

[blakebowling]

The only reason I didn't claim the name earlier is I don't think it goes with the role.

I am Miles Dyson (Terminator 2) Town Cop.

[strike wolf]

ok...I can say at the very least that is NOT the claim I thought you were hinting at...and to be honest this might change things as that's a relatively obscure claim. It's still risky to lynch a claimed cop especially when it made no sense in the first place for mafia to fake claim the cop with the risks involved...I had a case compiled against someone in his thread but I want to hear more opinions on this claim before i decide to follow through with it or not.

[Rodion]

My opinion is that Miles Dyson as a cop is a weird "flavour".

Blake has put himself in double trouble, as he can get lynched if someone claims "cop" OR if someone claims "Miles Dyson". However, if he's not counteclaimed in any instance, he gets closer to being clear. First conclusion would be "if he's not counterclaimed, he's clear". However, it's possible that he survives the cop counterclaim because the real cop does not wish to be revealed (2 protective roles are dead) and that he survives the Miles Dyson counterclaim because he's a fairly obscure character if you consider there are only 8-9 town characters covering 4 movies. If he avoids both counterclaims, I would slightly lean towards his innocence, 60/40 perhaps (60% innocent, 40% lucky gamble).

[naxus]

Miles dyson as a cop is strange indeed. He seems more like inventor or maybe even JOAT. That and with the names we know, that is somewhat obscure character. So far we have had main antag/protagonists. Hmmm...

[00iCon]

I suppose it is possible for marcus to be a miller however I've never heard of a busdriving miller)

I think we just hit the nail on the head, I'm going to buy Blake's name claim (mostly 'cause I don't want to inadvertently lynch a power role) and if Rodion is a miller, albeit busdriving, that explains the result. The fact that the name and role aren't closely related is not much of a surprise; for Rodion, marcus and his ability aren't exactly logical either.

uvote

Well, now we need a lynch target within a week, or maybe the mod will notice the spike in activity and extend the deadline, pretty please?