Does anyone here know if the odds are skewed in regards to attacks specifically dealing with with 4 vs 3. I don't have the overall stats, but after thousands and thousands of rolls, I am now expecting the 4 vs 3 to become 2 vs 3 and granted me being -1 % on overall 4 vs 3 attacks may have something to do with it ...I am asking, not bitching ....Its frustrating enough after now years playing this game, I want input...
Thanks !
4 vs 3 attacks
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Re: 4 vs 3 attacks
sergioms1 wrote:Does anyone here know if the odds are skewed in regards to attacks specifically dealing with with 4 vs 3. I don't have the overall stats, but after thousands and thousands of rolls, I am now expecting the 4 vs 3 to become 2 vs 3 and granted me being -1 % on overall 4 vs 3 attacks may have something to do with it ...I am asking, not bitching ....Its frustrating enough after now years playing this game, I want input...
Thanks !
http://www.plainsboro.com/~lemke/risk/
Attacker: three dice; Defender: two dice:
Attacker wins both: 2890 out of 7776 (37.17 %)
Defender wins both: 2275 out of 7776 (29.26 %)
Both win one: 2611 out of 7776 (33.58 %)
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Metsfanmax
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Re: 4 vs 3 attacks
sergioms1 wrote:Does anyone here know if the odds are skewed in regards to attacks specifically dealing with with 4 vs 3. I don't have the overall stats, but after thousands and thousands of rolls, I am now expecting the 4 vs 3 to become 2 vs 3 and granted me being -1 % on overall 4 vs 3 attacks may have something to do with it ...I am asking, not bitching ....Its frustrating enough after now years playing this game, I want input...
Thanks !
No. Nothing in the algorithm for obtaining dice rolls depends on how many troops are on the respective territories.
Re: 4 vs 3 attacks
From the same link as above: http://www.plainsboro.com/~lemke/risk/
2v3
The first roll is the same as 2v2 since you have 1 attacking die versus 2 or more defending dice
3v3
The first roll is the same as 3v2 since you have 2 attacking dice versus 2 or more defending dice
4v3
The first roll is the same as 4v2 since you have 3 attacking dice versus 2 or more defending dice
As for odds of winning if battled to completion, check out a table like the one at http://www.datagenetics.com/blog/novemb ... index.html
A 4v3 battle (3dice vs 3dice) has a 47.025% chance of success, but that's only if you keep attacking. In reality, you would stop at the first loss because the odds of attacking with 3 or less drops drastically. Sometimes its worth doing a 3v1 or 2v1, or even 2v3 or 2v2, depending on the circumstances.
2v3
The first roll is the same as 2v2 since you have 1 attacking die versus 2 or more defending dice
Attacker: one die; Defender: two dice:
Attacker wins 55 out of 216 (25.46 %)
Defender wins 161 out of 216 (74.54 %)
3v3
The first roll is the same as 3v2 since you have 2 attacking dice versus 2 or more defending dice
Attacker: two dice; Defender: two dice:
Attacker wins both: 295 out of 1296 (22.76 %)
Defender wins both: 581 out of 1296 (44.83 %)
Both win one: 420 out of 1296 (32.41 %)
4v3
The first roll is the same as 4v2 since you have 3 attacking dice versus 2 or more defending dice
Attacker: three dice; Defender: two dice:
Attacker wins both: 2890 out of 7776 (37.17 %)
Defender wins both: 2275 out of 7776 (29.26 %)
Both win one: 2611 out of 7776 (33.58 %)
As for odds of winning if battled to completion, check out a table like the one at http://www.datagenetics.com/blog/novemb ... index.html
A 4v3 battle (3dice vs 3dice) has a 47.025% chance of success, but that's only if you keep attacking. In reality, you would stop at the first loss because the odds of attacking with 3 or less drops drastically. Sometimes its worth doing a 3v1 or 2v1, or even 2v3 or 2v2, depending on the circumstances.
Re: 4 vs 3 attacks
sergioms1 wrote:Does anyone here know if the odds are skewed in regards to attacks specifically dealing with with 4 vs 3. I don't have the overall stats, but after thousands and thousands of rolls, I am now expecting the 4 vs 3 to become 2 vs 3 and granted me being -1 % on overall 4 vs 3 attacks may have something to do with it ...I am asking, not bitching ....Its frustrating enough after now years playing this game, I want input...
Thanks !
In short, after one tap on a 4v3 you have about a 1/3 chance of killing 2, 1/3 chance of killing 1 and loosing 1, and 1/3 chance of loosing 2. Except the odds are slightly in your favour of killing 2 (ie. 37.17%, not 33.33%)
Cheers,
Yynatago
Re: 4 vs 3 attacks
In short, after one tap on a 4v3 you have about a 1/3 chance of killing 2, 1/3 chance of killing 1 and loosing 1, and 1/3 chance of loosing 2. Except the odds are slightly in your favour of killing 2 (ie. 37.17%, not 33.33%)
Cheers,
Yynatago[/quote]
So its not surprising that 2/3 of the time you are going to be disappointed by either losing two or being in a 3v2 situation, where the next roll is stacked against you
(haha, says me, the biggest dice bitcher around!)
Cheers,
Yynatago[/quote]
So its not surprising that 2/3 of the time you are going to be disappointed by either losing two or being in a 3v2 situation, where the next roll is stacked against you
(haha, says me, the biggest dice bitcher around!)
Re: 4 vs 3 attacks
The point being , after 500,000 rolls and being just about -2% on my attacks , should not I change my strategy?
And my only big conquests and big percentages are on massive attacks, at wjst point , do you just say ...f*ck this shit ....500,000 rolls? Lol
Common now
And my only big conquests and big percentages are on massive attacks, at wjst point , do you just say ...f*ck this shit ....500,000 rolls? Lol
Common now
Re: 4 vs 3 attacks
As soon as I say this, I go 3 -13 ...f*ck this site
Fix this shit
Fix this shit