Mind of Skoffin Mafia DAY 3

[Skittles!]

The way I see it is -
With 6 players left, and assuming there's 2 scum.

Let's say we go no lynch -
6 alive today, 1 scum kill during the night.
5 alive tomorrow, lynch 1 (hopefully scum), 1 scum kill during the night.
3 alive following day, leaving a 33% chance of lynch scum. lynch 1, maybe not scum.
Scum win.

If we decide to lynch someone (aage or mets) today.
6 alive today, lynch 1 scum, 1 scum kill at night.
4 alive, 3 town vs 1 scum rather than 4 townie vs 2 scum. 25% chance compared to 33% chance. Say you lynch 1 townie, with 1 townie death.
1 v 1.
Guess scum win.

Of course, all of this is up in the air cause I don't know what everyone's roles are. I'd just like to remind everyone that this is a Skoffin game, and I just don't trust her moderation skills.

[dgz345]

Pika has pointed out numerous times (assuming the most common scenario where it's just town versus mafia and mafia have only one night kill) that with an even number of players left it's statistically a bad idea to lynch compared to waiting for the following day with an odd number of players. We're very possibly in a MYLO situation with either 5 players left or with 6, but with 5 players left a randomly chosen lynch is 40% likely to hit scum while today it's only 33% likely. Assuming we picked correctly on D3 then we'd go into D4 with two town and one scum left, so we still have to get through that three-way standoff which is not great odds. The other scenario is that we lynch today and get it right (and don't endgame). Then we go into D3 with four players left, likely three town and one scum, and again in that scenario it would make the most sense to wait until D4 for a three player finale. So if we have to do the same process either way, we might wait until tomorrow to lynch so that our odds are slightly better.

The situation is always more complicated than this analysis (for example, we got really unlucky with the hider dying) but it's often a useful place to start from.

this is a legit argument for no lynch especially

Then we go into D3 with four players left, likely three town and one scum, and again in that scenario it would make the most sense to wait until D4 for a three player finale. So if we have to do the same process either way, we might wait until tomorrow to lynch so that our odds are slightly better.

And we might get more info from the no lynch our only problem is that if scum has some double kill mechanics. and that there are 2 scums.

UNVOTE

VOTE NO LYNCH

[Ragian]

Not lynching someone with a guilty verdict who didn't even post till he felt the noose tighten around his neck. Noted.

[dgz345]

Not lynching someone with a guilty verdict who didn't even post till he felt the noose tighten around his neck. Noted.

Im willing to vote either no lynch or aage

[Metsfanmax]

Not lynching someone with a guilty verdict who didn't even post till he felt the noose tighten around his neck. Noted.

If aage's scum, then dgz and I can't both be scum. So perhaps you should concede that at least some people who want to no lynch here have legitimate reasons for it.

[Ragian]

That argument doesn't make any sense. That one (or two) townies are wrong (in my opinion) doesn't make it legitimate.

[dgz345]

I see wins in both votes so if I could vote for both I would have done it.

Scenario 1 vote aage.
If town then scum wins otherwise game continues

Scenario 2 vote no lynch.
If scum somehow has 2 kills or we have a town killer that shoots a town scum wins
Otherwise we continue.

If strike gets killed and we see his role we know that he didn't lie.

If we have a doctor on strike and he is actually cop and can continue his scum hunt.

If strike is cop and not killed by scum he can share his last night result.

[Metsfanmax]

That argument doesn't make any sense. That one (or two) townies are wrong (in my opinion) doesn't make it legitimate.

The argument wasn't that you have to agree with our stance, it's that at least one person making the argument has to be town, so it's possible for the argument to come from a legitimate place, even if the argument itself is not correct.

[Ragian]

Sure, I've played with mitch and dakky before.

[dgz345]

bump

[Ragian]

So, I guess scum will jsut run down the clock when town members are AWOL.

[dgz345]

As I've said. I'm willing to vote agee or no lynch

give me a something else to go on if you want to change my mind

[Ragian]

You mean other than:

a) guilty verdict from uncountered cop?
b) non-participating guy?

[dgz345]

You mean other than:

a) guilty verdict from uncountered cop?
b) non-participating guy?

i just want the next day.

[Metsfanmax]

I decided to check out after how rude Ragian's latest comment was, but vote No Lynch.

[Skittles!]

I'm not going to vote no lynch, and before I vote for aage or mets I want to hear more from aage and strike and see what their thoughts are.

Can we get a vote count pls mod

[strike wolf]

Depends. If were no lynching, giving my,updated reads is probably only playing into mafias hands and letting them know if it's worth it to try to kill me or not or block me if they have a role blocker.

Role blocker scenario: Not saying probably means theyll block me just to be sure I dont end up nailing the second one as well which isnt ideal but could keep the other power roles free to act freely. I'm limited utility now that Ive said my role. Even knowing this, mafia will probably follow this.

No role blocker: Im probably not going to be killed if there's a no lynch. This would most likely only happen if Im somehow wrong about Aage and mafia wants to frame him. Even this is somewhat unlikely because being wrong on Aage means one of three things:
a. I'm insane/paranoid. Ive pretty much dismissed this one as an alternate sanity cop in a game this small would be pretty bastardish. Both are pretty much negative utility roles in a game this size. Killing me would just reveal that my investigation on Aage means hes innocent or doesn't mean anything so there's no point in killing me to frame him.
b. Theres a mafia bus driver: this is the only option as a town busdriver would have come forward to reveal the real guilty party by now. In this situation, mafia wojld probably try to kill me.
c. Aage is a miller-Unlikely. If he knes he was a miller. He would have said so by now and wven if he didnt say he would have had a different tone in addressing the accusation. Beyond that, Millers just arent very common roles.

Now less directly, I pretty much have to operate under the assumption thay these arent true. The first and third for obvious reasons and thw second because there's no chance that well ever know if Aage was busdriven. Its obvious no one watched Aage be visited by a bus driver because theu would have most likely already piped up about how they didnt see me visit Aage and its unlikelt anyone tracked a bus driver visiting aage and,someone else because if they had they would probably already have pieced it togethet that they must have been tracking a busdriver and piped up that blah de blah is the real probable scum. Also, cop + track/watch isnt super likely in this game that we already know includes at least one vanilla.

Anyways, operaging under these assumptions, I have a 1/4 cjance of hitting scum investigating blindly. I give my updated reads and only scum will know if the ones Im choosing increase or decrease the statistical likelihood of me hitting scum.

Now if we lynxh Aage as I think we should than theres a pretty good chance that Ill be killed or at least targeted for the kill tonight.

Ultimately right now. Lynching Aage is high reward, moderate risk becaise of MyLo and no lynching is low risk low reward. Im okay no lynching because I dont tjink it will hurt town in the long run.

And Im out of time. Wanted to rewrite this much more coherently and get a bit into other things but will have to get back to it later.

[Skoffin]

vote count
6 alive, 4 needed to lynch


Mets ----------
Strike --------
dgz -----------
Ragoo --------
Skittles ------
Agge --------- , ragoo,
No lynch - aage, dg, mets




DGZ knock off the technicolour dreamcoat before I murder you (not in game, but in real life)

[dgz345]

DGZ knock off the technicolour dreamcoat before I murder you (not in game, but in real life)

It's to counter your red. It started as a script "Remove Skoffins red period text"

and now we have this magical instead just for you

[Skittles!]

vote aage

I don't believe there is a role blocker (and even if there was, i don't believe they would block strikes), and nor a mafia power move except godfather. it just wouldn't make sense in such a small game.

i also don't think we should no lynch at this period when we've already lost 2 townies at no gain.

[dgz345]

Unvote

Vote aage

[Skittles!]

Unvote

Vote aage

This is so suss?

unvote aage

Why would you vote right after I voted, make aage closer to the vote, and ignore Skoffin's vote count? Whats your go dgz?

[Ragian]

I decided to check out after how rude Ragian's latest comment was, but vote No Lynch.

When was I rude?

[dgz345]

Unvote

Vote aage

This is so suss?

unvote aage

Why would you vote right after I voted, make aage closer to the vote, and ignore Skoffin's vote count? Whats your go dgz?

Should I even respond to this?

[Skoffin]

2 day deadline boop boop