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Re: New roll calculator
Posted: Mon Feb 19, 2007 8:57 pm
by wcaclimbing
Atilla wrote:Sincerly getting bored with outragious losses,
Its more of a psychology thing. People tend to remember bad things (big losses) more than good things (big wins), because the bad things are generally more emotionally impacting and make a stronger memory.
I reccomend you download the dice analyzer, or at least keep track of your wins and losses by recording them somewhere, and then you can see that after a while, the dice even out and they sometimes mess you up badly, but other times you get a huge victory and it evens out.
Posted: Tue Feb 20, 2007 9:45 am
by yeti_c
I just started a topic in the General Discussion called "Show us your dice"...
Check that topic out and you will see that the dice are pretty random.
C.
Use a piece of paper
Posted: Tue Feb 20, 2007 10:43 am
by Windparson
I was starting to climb up the grassy knoll looking for the shooter after the update! The dice seemed terrible. So, remembering the comments about remembering the bad rolls more than the good rolls, I decided to try a little experiment. I am playing in 21 games. I tracked my wins/losses with a pen and paper so I could look at the hard copy. I kept track in my mind what I thought the results would be. Boy was I wrong! I though the dice were kicking my butt, but after looking at the hard copy I was actually coming out a winner 29% more than a baseline 50/50. Try it one time, it is true, you remember the bad MUCH more than the good. Just my 2 cents. Retreating back to my cave.
Windparson
Posted: Tue Feb 20, 2007 10:47 am
by Kahless
You could try an experiment by rolling dice yourself and comparing the results
God Doesn't Play Dice
Posted: Tue Feb 27, 2007 11:51 pm
by Aradhus
Yes, I'm entirely positive this has been quite regular topic, and it will be accused of being whiney.
The dice in this game are gay, and not in that 'I am Ian Mckellen and I am great' way.
And yes, everybody gets crap dice now and again. Everybody at some point will lose 13 armies to 1 (and still not beat the territory).
Everybody will roll 3 sixes at one point and still not win.
Fairness is not the issue. It does suck, but some people are just luckier than others.
The issue is that the way the dice system is set up makes the game so much more to do with luck than skill.
I should get an advantage for having more armies. Three armies should be easier to beat than seven armies. Surely. It's common sense.
At one end of the metre is skill and at the other end it is luck. The arrow is not even in the middle, it is pretty much pointed at the luck side of the gauge. That aspect makes this game so ordinary and mundane, when it should, and could, be so much better.
Posted: Tue Feb 27, 2007 11:56 pm
by AK_iceman
Would you like some

to go with your

?

Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2007 12:27 am
by Aradhus
So funny. Original too. What a talent.
I do like your reply. Nothing says, 'I have no idea how to improve gamplay' like cheese and tears.
This crap little
game has a much better balance of luck and skill.
You have to be deliberately not looking if you can't see the obvious problem with Conquer club. A problem, I suspect, that causes players to quickly become bored with this game and move on to more interesting challenges.
Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2007 1:51 am
by yeti_c
Aradhus wrote:So funny. Original too. What a talent.
I do like your reply. Nothing says, 'I have no idea how to improve gamplay' like cheese and tears.
This crap little
game has a much better balance of luck and skill.
You have to be deliberately not looking if you can't see the obvious problem with Conquer club. A problem, I suspect, that causes players to quickly become bored with this game and move on to more interesting challenges.
Not sure if you're aware of this...
But any game that is based in the land of probability is inherently based on luck...
If you don't like luck games - don't play Risk...
C.
Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2007 2:15 am
by Aradhus
Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2007 5:32 pm
by AK_iceman
There's already a million different threads about the dice being unfair!
If you found a site where you think the dice are less unfair, then ask the site admin where he gets his lines of code from. Lack gets his from random.org, a pretty popular site for RANDOM numbers. This site is open to suggestions, but when people just whine and complain about their bad luck, it doesn't help anyone.
Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2007 5:53 pm
by Backglass
There is no Luck/Skill meter. it's 100% luck when it comes to the dice. They are DICE after all. If dice rolling was based on skill there would be no craps tables in Las Vegas.
And the odds are exactly the same, every roll.
Posted: Wed Feb 28, 2007 9:29 pm
by simtom
Just my opinion.
This game is based to little skill!
If you take away the randomness of the dice then all the games would simply be decided on who gets the better starting positions.
Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2007 9:29 am
by RedFish
simtom wrote:Just my opinion.
This game is based to little skill!
If you take away the randomness of the dice then all the games would simply be decided on who gets the better starting positions.
If that was true a game like Diplomacy would always have the same outcome.
Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2007 11:17 am
by DiM
AK_iceman wrote:There's already a million different threads about the dice being unfair!
can i complain about the cards being unfair??
i'm about to lose a game because of the cards. i never got a mixed set (even though i waited until i had 5 cards while the others seemed to get them mixed all the time. not to mention they got cards with their territories so extra troops from there too.
now in the final stage i really needed good cards because the oponent exchanged twice for a total of 28 cards and i was forced to exchange 3 reds
my last 8 cards were 5 straight reds (exchanged 3) then 2 blue. and in the last turn when it's really too damn late i got a green
i'm not complaining about another game though where after a few exchanges i have a total of 86 while another guy has just 64
this is how a game can be won or lost only with cards. no tactics involved

Posted: Fri Mar 02, 2007 10:25 pm
by SolarFreon
DiM: with all due respect, if you don't like the randomness of cards, just play no card style games, they have that option, sometimes its great other times it's not so fun, but they already have a solution to that dilemma in place.
Posted: Fri Mar 02, 2007 10:41 pm
by DiM
i don't like to play without cards and i wasn't complaining i was just pointing out that cards can make you a winner or a loser. and i gave 2 examples for those situations

Posted: Mon Mar 26, 2007 8:58 am
by Maugrim
I just came upon this threa, as I was googling something else, and I thought, "Hey, I just started playing there, maybe I should give my two cents."
It's actually not very difficult to find out whether the random number generator is, in fact, truly random (or, at the very least, drives the likelihood of it not being random into the highly improbable). All that CC needs to do is keep track of every dice roll thrown in every game played. This would, no doubt, amount to a huge number of dice thrown. With such a large number of thrown dice, it's a fairly simple statitistical operation to determine whether or not the generator is truly random within a certain confidence interval. I'm surprised that the site doesn't keep track of such things, actually. It would go a long way towards eliminating the ever popular "faulty-dice" thread (Unless of course, the dice truly are faulty). What would be harder to discover is whether the dice favour any one particular user (Duhn duhn duhn...). Let the conspiracy theories abound!
Oh, and what I was trying to find before coming upon this thread was a computerized dice roller. One that I can use when playing risk with my friends, in order that I don't have to roll a million times in order to discover who has won our hundred army battles. If you can find one that continually favours me, I'd be forever indebted.
Posted: Mon Mar 26, 2007 11:44 am
by Xayath
in a 15 v 14 i won the territory will out losing a man if that doesnt prove that the dice are random than nothing will
this is because i have allso lost a 18 v 6 armie thingie too
basically the dice are random
Period
(.)
Posted: Mon Mar 26, 2007 1:41 pm
by CreepyUncleAndy
Ah, yep....I've lost 20 armies trying to take out 3 armies. I've also overrun entire continents without loosing a single army. The dice neither love nor hate; they merely generate random numbers with absolutely no tendency.
Posted: Fri Jun 15, 2007 12:52 pm
by tms04g
I don't have the benefit of good rolls while attacking but my opponents always (most of the time) do Something is wrong.

Posted: Fri Jun 15, 2007 2:14 pm
by gimil
Maugrim wrote:Oh, and what I was trying to find before coming upon this thread was a computerized dice roller. One that I can use when playing risk with my friends, in order that I don't have to roll a million times in order to discover who has won our hundred army battles. If you can find one that continually favours me, I'd be forever indebted.
random.org will give u a dice roller
random.org "claims" 2b "more" realistic.
Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2007 3:19 am
by lt_oddball
what a simple spreadsheet like excel can't prove these days.
I put all the combinations of the attacker's 3 dices (56) against the defenders 2 dices (21).
(edit: immediately in conquerclub order high to low)
and not to my surprise I find that of the 1176 (56x21) possibilities
420 give the attacker 2 wins,
378 give the attacker 1 win and
378 give the attacker 0 win.
Q.E.D. !!!!
So at any lenghty attack series (1 attack run..or all your attack runs combined

! ) the attacker SHOULD kill more than he 'd loose !!!
But that is NOT the case here at conquer.com
I collected data and at best you might be 50-50 , but in my case the balance is shifted HEAVILY in favor of the defender . And that is crap.
So where is the PROOF to the CLAIM that the dices of random.org are "more" realistic ?
(and why doesn't random.org simply states that they ARE realistic ? Insecure ? Does "more" mean in fact just a tiny little bit more ? )
and now random.org.... they still haven't responded
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Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2007 3:34 am
by Spritzking
well i dont know your problem is. if they are random: so what, if they are not: so what. It is just that there is no advantage for a player, for everyone is fucked... we all knew the attacker had an advantage, and we all knew, the attacker loses more

it is just that we dont give shit to random.org. THey give us dice. and we play.
Check your stats.
Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2007 8:39 am
by CliffyQS
Check your probabilities.
all possible combinations of 3 dice is 6^3 = 216.
all possible combinations of 2 dice is 6^2 = 36.
all combinations of the two = 6^3 * 6^2 = 7776.
Of those,
attacker lose 0 defender lose 2 = 2890 or about 37%.
attacker lose 1 defender lose 1 = 2611 or about 34%.
attacker lose 2 defender lose 0 = 2275 or about 29%.
If you fought 100 battles and got perfectly average results, attacker would lose about 92 and defender would lose about 108. Over 100 battles, that's not a huge advantage. The advantage is small enough that with a small sample of random numbers the results may not look random. A large sample should come close to this. I have run probabilities for all other possible numbers of dice in this game as well.
Posted: Mon Jun 25, 2007 8:43 am
by pancakemix
Doesn't looking at what is most likely defeat the fact that it's RANDOM?