Conquer Club

I haven't been inactive, I've just not been posting because I've had nothing to add. The discussion was already going at full steam when I logged in after the night and pretty much all the points have been covered all the time. I was getting very strong town vibes from blake "yesterday", but Rodion has been making a strong case in his own favour so far. Frankly, I'm undecided.


I do, however, agree with those who say that TG should spit out what he's thinking (or at least give us a better reason for why he's not doing it than he has so far) instead of just vaguely hinting that he knows who might play mafia in a certain way regarding nightkills.

MeDeFe wrote:I haven't been inactive, I've just not been posting because I've had nothing to add. The discussion was already going at full steam when I logged in after the night and pretty much all the points have been covered all the time. I was getting very strong town vibes from blake "yesterday", but Rodion has been making a strong case in his own favour so far. Frankly, I'm undecided.


I do, however, agree with those who say that TG should spit out what he's thinking (or at least give us a better reason for why he's not doing it than he has so far) instead of just vaguely hinting that he knows who might play mafia in a certain way regarding nightkills.

I have be asked to replace, once I get a role I will have a lot to say.

Probably not edocsil. Medefe, vio and jeraado are the ones who were prodded and they've all posted now. Though I agree I would have a lot to say if I was in the game...

strike wolf wrote:Probably not edocsil. Medefe, vio and jeraado are the ones who were prodded and they've all posted now. Though I agree I would have a lot to say if I was in the game...

edocsil wrote:

MeDeFe wrote:I haven't been inactive, I've just not been posting because I've had nothing to add. The discussion was already going at full steam when I logged in after the night and pretty much all the points have been covered all the time. I was getting very strong town vibes from blake "yesterday", but Rodion has been making a strong case in his own favour so far. Frankly, I'm undecided.


I do, however, agree with those who say that TG should spit out what he's thinking (or at least give us a better reason for why he's not doing it than he has so far) instead of just vaguely hinting that he knows who might play mafia in a certain way regarding nightkills.

I have be asked to replace, once I get a role I will have a lot to say.

Yeah sorry guys, I would let you replace, but everyone has at least posted. Although I find it a bit difficult to move the game along if peeps don't start voting soon. I might just set a deadline so we can get going.

Vote Count

Rodion(3)- blake, freezie, tails
blake(3)- Rodion, naxus, icon

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

jeraado wrote:Sorry tails, but now that you've said it, you'll need to at least give a bit more of an explanation as to why you cant reveal what you know. If you are town and you truly have solid information about who is scum, then you should reveal it. Of course if the information can't be revealed (i.e. its against the rules) then your ability to continue in the game suggests you are scum

Goddammit I really regret saying that. It's just a guess. And no, I'm not going to give the reason why. It's from outside Mafia Games and has nothing to do with this game, it's not role-related info or anything like that, and I'm not willing to betray someone's trust. Let it lie. If y'all wish to pursue this then I'll have to be replaced. Or fucking lynch me, whatever.

-Tails

Rodion wrote:There are several roles whose existence could explain a false guilty report. I can think of paranoid cop, insane cop, framer, miller and bus driver.

Forget the 2 wrong cops, this is a 12 players game, and as I said, doubting a sanity here is purely smoke to distract the town. Miller/framer once again, in a 12 players game, are NO reasons to doubt a cop result, unless it's like day3 and possible lylo situation. this is only day 2... Bus driver? Ok, Maybe. But the odds are very small and once again, no reasons to doubt a cop claim.

Rodion wrote: I think I gathered enough evidence that shows Blake to be extra scummy and his preemptive strategy of accusing his accuser (me) is just the cherry on top.

No you didn't. You're making long posts to show you have something to say, but you're defending yourself more than helping.

Again, imagine Blake is indeed the cop and he investigated me only to find out I am mafia. So far, nothing out of the ordinary.

Rodion wrote:The real strange thing is, after 2 protective roles have died, Blake claiming cop before even trying to lynch his target without having to let all the mafia know his identity.

Purely metagaming perspective, no, that's not out of the ordinary from what I remember of blake's style of play.

Rodion wrote:Now, I know for a fact that Blake is guilty (the reason being that he is trying to get me, a townie, killed)

WIFOM

I don't need to say more

Rodion wrote:Possibility 1: he is a reckless/dumb cop.

By trusting Blake, with the 2 town protective roles dead and a reckless/dumb cop, mafia loses 1 member on day 2 (Rodion lynched) and kills the cop on night 2 (Blake killed), leaving the town short of 2 protective roles and it's main (and possibly only) investigate role. That heavily tips the scales on mafia's favor. Town chances of winning are below 30%. That means that trusting Blake will lead to a high % chance of a mafia win, even if Blake is telling the truth.
By trusting Rodion, you lynch Blake on day 2 and likely lose another townie on night 2. Town chances of winning are below 10%, but at least you get to lynch a surefire mafia on day 3 (Rodion).

Wrong, we get 2 mafias either way. Blake and myself, or Rodion and Icon. Town's only chance is to not lynch our claimed cop, and HOPE there is a watcher/tracker/other protective role out there.

[/quote]

freezie wrote:Town's only chance is to not lynch our claimed cop, and HOPE there is a watcher/tracker/other protective role out there.

Or maybe I'm bulletproof...

Anyway, I find it highly suspicious that Rodion and icon haven't said anything about what would happen should they be lynched. Rodion has only mentioned that I should be lynched, and that "i'm obviously scum". However the only argument he could present to back this up is that "He is town, and I said he was scum, so I MUST be scum." Really sounds like scum trying to play the n00b w/ OMGUS card. I say we should lynch Rodion because I investigated him and got guilty. If we do lynch him, and he is town. We find out one of two things; I'm an insane cop (ie. gets backwards result) OR I'm scum and lied about investigating Rodion. While I know for a fact that I'm the cop, you may not.

naxus wrote:But the cop has to think of endgame scenario, Say blake is faking being the cop and the real cop comes out of nowhere. We lynch blake and then mafia NK the real cop. Then town would have lost two protective roles and its only investigative role. Thats not good numbers for town. The cop has a lose lose situation. Stay quiet and watch Rodion(Town in my opinion) get lynched or he can claim have blake lynched(Fake cop in my opinon) and then get himself NK. Either way, town is losing numbers when they dont have numbers to lose.

Throw aside your oppinions for now. Either we take the chance of killing our claimed cop only to find out if he's telling the truth or not, or we lynch Rodion and find out is blake is telling the truth or not. Without a cop claiming, it's a much safer route for town to kill the guilty report before killing a possible fake cop.

Like it was said before, I hardly see a mafia fake claiming cop on day 2.

If we do it otherwise, we lynch a possible cop. If we find out he's mafia, well, good, we get a mafia and most assurely another ( myself ). If we find out he's telling the truth, we lost our cop, but we get a mafia ( and possibly another, again ).

I went with the first possibility. The safest one.

TA1LGUNN3R wrote:

jeraado wrote:Sorry tails, but now that you've said it, you'll need to at least give a bit more of an explanation as to why you cant reveal what you know. If you are town and you truly have solid information about who is scum, then you should reveal it. Of course if the information can't be revealed (i.e. its against the rules) then your ability to continue in the game suggests you are scum

Goddammit I really regret saying that. It's just a guess. And no, I'm not going to give the reason why. It's from outside Mafia Games and has nothing to do with this game, it's not role-related info or anything like that, and I'm not willing to betray someone's trust. Let it lie. If y'all wish to pursue this then I'll have to be replaced. Or fucking lynch me, whatever.

-Tails

Oh and read the day-scene. I didn't, and it looks like shield wasn't actively targeted. He was protecting John Connor. So forgot that argument.

-Tails

TA1LGUNN3R wrote:

TA1LGUNN3R wrote:

jeraado wrote:Sorry tails, but now that you've said it, you'll need to at least give a bit more of an explanation as to why you cant reveal what you know. If you are town and you truly have solid information about who is scum, then you should reveal it. Of course if the information can't be revealed (i.e. its against the rules) then your ability to continue in the game suggests you are scum

Goddammit I really regret saying that. It's just a guess. And no, I'm not going to give the reason why. It's from outside Mafia Games and has nothing to do with this game, it's not role-related info or anything like that, and I'm not willing to betray someone's trust. Let it lie. If y'all wish to pursue this then I'll have to be replaced. Or fucking lynch me, whatever.

-Tails

Oh and read the day-scene. I didn't, and it looks like shield wasn't actively targeted. He was protecting John Connor. So forgot that argument.

-Tails

I read it, but for some reason I thought it meant he was supposed to be protecting Yoshi (John Connor that was killed that day).

So my question is, Who the f*ck would kill AoG N1?
If he was townie, that would just confirm what he said, but wouldn't remove any power role. But it would also cut down a false lead on mafia.

Also, something else I just thought.

What scum busdriver would have busdriven me towards someone else that was scum? Noone knew that I was cop D1, so for all they knew, I had a SK ability and would have killed that person? That is assuming that there isn't a town busdriver that busdrove me last night.

blakebowling wrote:Also, something else I just thought.

What scum busdriver would have busdriven me towards someone else that was scum? Noone knew that I was cop D1, so for all they knew, I had a SK ability and would have killed that person? That is assuming that there isn't a town busdriver that busdrove me last night.

Any busdriver COULD have switched Rodion with -X- person out there. Which would have given you the scum result.

But that is very unlikely, and ( hey look another point on Rodion's scumminess ) not explaining Rodion's huge attack on Blake.

Just a random thought: Does anyone else wish that we hadn't killed Yoshi D1 so he could comment?

yes.

DoomYoshi wrote:yes.

Sorry Yoshi. If it makes you feel better. They'll probably end up lynching me D2, because most of them don't believe I'm the cop either.

DoomYoshi wrote:yes.

Don't worry, I'll have mod comments at the end of the game too. For now, shh! please!

freezie wrote:

blakebowling wrote:Also, something else I just thought.

What scum busdriver would have busdriven me towards someone else that was scum? Noone knew that I was cop D1, so for all they knew, I had a SK ability and would have killed that person? That is assuming that there isn't a town busdriver that busdrove me last night.

Any busdriver COULD have switched Rodion with -X- person out there. Which would have given you the scum result.

But that is very unlikely, and ( hey look another point on Rodion's scumminess ) not explaining Rodion's huge attack on Blake.

Ok freezie think it through for a minute

Busdriver is possible in a 12 person game. Not 100% but likely. Usually in my experiences with busdrivers, N1 is a random switch to throw town off or to protect themselves.

Blake claiming cop first post day 2 and picking someone that had already wagoned against him the prior day? Little suspicious.

Mafia fakeclaiming cop day 2? While a little irrational on their part, due to the size of this game it is a viable option. The other cop can't really counterclaim without fucking the town completley

Blakes strategy if he is a fake cop(Which he totally is) makes a lot of sense

Just got back from work, I'll read it in a couple hours and reply.

TA1LGUNN3R wrote:

jeraado wrote:Sorry tails, but now that you've said it, you'll need to at least give a bit more of an explanation as to why you cant reveal what you know. If you are town and you truly have solid information about who is scum, then you should reveal it. Of course if the information can't be revealed (i.e. its against the rules) then your ability to continue in the game suggests you are scum

Goddammit I really regret saying that. It's just a guess. And no, I'm not going to give the reason why. It's from outside Mafia Games and has nothing to do with this game, it's not role-related info or anything like that, and I'm not willing to betray someone's trust. Let it lie. If y'all wish to pursue this then I'll have to be replaced. Or fucking lynch me, whatever.

-Tails

Extra cool. First it was "pure meta reasons". Then when I asked you to share the information to help the town find another scum (and said that being it a meta reason you were not forced to reveal roles/powers/flavors/whatever) it suddendly became "not so much meta as... how much I know about stuff". Now you say it "has nothing to do with this game", which as far as I understand is the definition of "pure meta"?

And there's more. I actually asked you whether you had a good reason for not saying it, such as an etiquette dilemma. This being my first game, I'd have let this go with a simple "yes, it's unethical/against the spirit of the game/frowned upon/whatever". But you replied with the "not so much meta as..." line, only to change your mind in your very next post. Boy, is this getting smelly!

freezie wrote:Forget the 2 wrong cops

Dude, reread. I was one of the first to declare I considered those possibilities unlikely! You can't say it's unlikely and use that against me! That's absurd!

freezie wrote: No you didn't. You're making long posts to show you have something to say, but you're defending yourself more than helping.

And you can't have it both ways. Either you play the "those roles are likely" card or the "those roles are unlikely" one. I see you went with the "unlikely" version (as did I). The absence of such roles makes something crystal clear: either Blake is flat-out lying or I am flat-out lying. Think of it this way: if you have 2 people that can be either black or white and they necessarily have different colors, saying you're "not black" is equivalent to saying you're "white" (which is also equivalent to saying the other person is "black" or "not white"). Thus, "defending myself" is equivalent to "attacking Blake" and that's enough to say I AM helping (I'm building a case to lynch a scum, how much more do you want before you consider I am helping?).

freezie wrote:Purely metagaming perspective, no, that's not out of the ordinary from what I remember of blake's style of play.

I've never seen Blake play, but I usually assume people make rational decisions as opposed to suboptimal screw-ups. And, as I said before, placing the town's hope in Blake being the true cop is like trying to harvest a fruitless tree, as, even if your hope was later revealed not to be misplaced, you'll end with a dead cop and no more clues to get the remaining 2-3 mafia.

freezie wrote:WIFOM

I don't need to say more

I'm not understanding your use of WIFOM here, but the logical structure of the circular reasoning is such that it can defend opposing views: if you're using WIFOM to "block my attack", you certainly lose your opportunity to attack me for that very same reason.

freezie wrote:Wrong, we get 2 mafias either way. Blake and myself, or Rodion and Icon. Town's only chance is to not lynch our claimed cop, and HOPE there is a watcher/tracker/other protective role out there.

Sorry, buddy, but now you're insulting my intelligence and THAT is one of the few surefire ways of getting me enraged. Do I strike you as the sort of stupid person that, when mafia, would blatantly protect another mafia (like you're implying with the 00iCon case)? Sorry, but I certainly did not become a CC general by being stupid and, while I admit those 2 games are different, my brain is the same and can perform well on both, for your information. Yes, I am being arrogant here, but you had it coming, corporal.

It's a moot point because I won't flip mafia if I'm lynched, but if I did the least you could do is eat some humble pie and conclude ooiCon is town because I couldn't be THAT stupid. You can reply this whole paragraph with "WIFOM" if you want to, I don't care.

I'm going to doublepost now, Safari, as I have other persons to reply to and don't feel like making a colossal post for several reasons. Let me know if that's a no-no for you and I won't repeat.

blakebowling wrote:Or maybe I'm bulletproof...

I don't yet know how to do mafia balancing, but a bulletproof cop strikes me as the unlikeliest possibility ever mentioned in this thread. Congratulations (and thanks) on going that far and making you seem more suspicious.

blakebowling wrote:Anyway, I find it highly suspicious that Rodion and icon haven't said anything about what would happen should they be lynched.

REALLY? REALLY? REALLY?

Rodion wrote:Possibility 1: he is a reckless/dumb cop.

By trusting Blake, with the 2 town protective roles dead and a reckless/dumb cop, mafia loses 1 member on day 2 (Rodion lynched) and kills the cop on night 2 (Blake killed), leaving the town short of 2 protective roles and it's main (and possibly only) investigate role. That heavily tips the scales on mafia's favor. Town chances of winning are below 30%. That means that trusting Blake will lead to a high % chance of a mafia win, even if Blake is telling the truth.
By trusting Rodion, you lynch Blake on day 2 and likely lose another townie on night 2. Town chances of winning are below 10%, but at least you get to lynch a surefire mafia on day 3 (Rodion).

Possibility 2: he is mafia trying to preemptively accuse his accuser.

By trusting Blake, you force me to roleclaim (giving mafia more knowledge about town power roles). If you still trust Blake after I roleclaim, you lynch a town power role and likely get another townie killed on night 2. Town chances of winning the game fall below 10%, but at least you get to lynch a surefire mafia on day 3 (Blake).
By trusting Rodion, you lynch Blake and spare me from roleclaiming, thus denying the mafia this extra information. The cop is still alive (since he was not Blake) and we enter night 2 with his identity hidden, meaning he's considerably safe. Town chances of winning the game are prety decent.

I considered the 4 possible scenarios:

a) Blake truthful, trust Blake
b) Blake liar, trust Blake
c) Blake truthful, trust Rodion
d) Blake liar, trust Rodion

There you go, Mr. "I only remember what benefits me".

And, since you mentioned it, OMGUS!

freezie wrote:Throw aside your oppinions for now. Either we take the chance of killing our claimed cop only to find out if he's telling the truth or not, or we lynch Rodion and find out is blake is telling the truth or not. Without a cop claiming, it's a much safer route for town to kill the guilty report before killing a possible fake cop.

Like it was said before, I hardly see a mafia fake claiming cop on day 2.

If we do it otherwise, we lynch a possible cop. If we find out he's mafia, well, good, we get a mafia and most assurely another ( myself ). If we find out he's telling the truth, we lost our cop, but we get a mafia ( and possibly another, again ).

I went with the first possibility. The safest one.

I'll refer to the 4 possibilities I've listed on this same post. Both "B" and "C" are awful and will drop town's chance to a longshot. "A" is partially good because you get one mafia (or 2, if you really think I'm stupid enough to protect 00iCon if he is indeed my scumbuddy), but you also lose your cop on N2. "D" is the best as we get 2 mafia (Blake+Freezie) and get to keep our cop hidden for 1 more day.

And to a latest post of yours in which you said I am scummy for attacking Blake so fiercely - if you rule those odds roles (paranoid/insane cop, miller, framer and busdriver) as unlikely, declaring a townie (I'm 100% sure I'm townie) to be guilty means you're knowingly conducting a mislynch, thus you're mafia. So, if you say you don't believe there to be one of those odds roles, it's a logical conclusion that I must attack Blake as fiercely as I can. There is nothing scummy here, it's just my ONLY possibility.

Rodion"[quote="freezie wrote:Wrong, we get 2 mafias either way. Blake and myself, or Rodion and Icon. Town's only chance is to not lynch our claimed cop, and HOPE there is a watcher/tracker/other protective role out there.

Sorry, buddy, but now you're insulting my intelligence and THAT is one of the few surefire ways of getting me enraged. Do I strike you as the sort of stupid person that, when mafia, would blatantly protect another mafia (like you're implying with the 00iCon case)? Sorry, but I certainly did not become a CC general by being stupid and, while I admit those 2 games are different, my brain is the same and can perform well on both, for your information. Yes, I am being arrogant here, but you had it coming, corporal.

[/quote]

First of all, I am not insulting your intelligence. Now that this has been cleared..

It's a moot point because I won't flip mafia if I'm lynched, but if I did the least you could do is eat some humble pie and conclude ooiCon is town because I couldn't be THAT stupid. You can reply this whole paragraph with "WIFOM" if you want to, I don't care.

If you don't flip mafia when dead, 2 mafias go down. This I hope is clear for everybody. Second, when I say Icon is going to go down, is not because YOU defended him, it's because HE'S defending you.


I am not going to conclude whoever is mafia/town. I assume you're scum, and that icon is your scummate. The conclusions will happen at the lynch scene.

Rodion wrote:

blakebowling wrote:Or maybe I'm bulletproof...

I don't yet know how to do mafia balancing, but a bulletproof cop strikes me as the unlikeliest possibility ever mentioned in this thread. Congratulations (and thanks) on going that far and making you seem more suspicious.

blakebowling wrote:Anyway, I find it highly suspicious that Rodion and icon haven't said anything about what would happen should they be lynched.

REALLY? REALLY? REALLY?

Rodion wrote:Possibility 1: he is a reckless/dumb cop.

By trusting Blake, with the 2 town protective roles dead and a reckless/dumb cop, mafia loses 1 member on day 2 (Rodion lynched) and kills the cop on night 2 (Blake killed), leaving the town short of 2 protective roles and it's main (and possibly only) investigate role. That heavily tips the scales on mafia's favor. Town chances of winning are below 30%. That means that trusting Blake will lead to a high % chance of a mafia win, even if Blake is telling the truth.
By trusting Rodion, you lynch Blake on day 2 and likely lose another townie on night 2. Town chances of winning are below 10%, but at least you get to lynch a surefire mafia on day 3 (Rodion).

Possibility 2: he is mafia trying to preemptively accuse his accuser.

By trusting Blake, you force me to roleclaim (giving mafia more knowledge about town power roles). If you still trust Blake after I roleclaim, you lynch a town power role and likely get another townie killed on night 2. Town chances of winning the game fall below 10%, but at least you get to lynch a surefire mafia on day 3 (Blake).
By trusting Rodion, you lynch Blake and spare me from roleclaiming, thus denying the mafia this extra information. The cop is still alive (since he was not Blake) and we enter night 2 with his identity hidden, meaning he's considerably safe. Town chances of winning the game are prety decent.

I considered the 4 possible scenarios:

a) Blake truthful, trust Blake
b) Blake liar, trust Blake
c) Blake truthful, trust Rodion
d) Blake liar, trust Rodion

There you go, Mr. "I only remember what benefits me".

And, since you mentioned it, OMGUS!

freezie wrote:Throw aside your oppinions for now. Either we take the chance of killing our claimed cop only to find out if he's telling the truth or not, or we lynch Rodion and find out is blake is telling the truth or not. Without a cop claiming, it's a much safer route for town to kill the guilty report before killing a possible fake cop.

Like it was said before, I hardly see a mafia fake claiming cop on day 2.

If we do it otherwise, we lynch a possible cop. If we find out he's mafia, well, good, we get a mafia and most assurely another ( myself ). If we find out he's telling the truth, we lost our cop, but we get a mafia ( and possibly another, again ).

I went with the first possibility. The safest one.

I'll refer to the 4 possibilities I've listed on this same post. Both "B" and "C" are awful and will drop town's chance to a longshot. "A" is partially good because you get one mafia (or 2, if you really think I'm stupid enough to protect 00iCon if he is indeed my scumbuddy), but you also lose your cop on N2. "D" is the best as we get 2 mafia (Blake+Freezie) and get to keep our cop hidden for 1 more day.

And to a latest post of yours in which you said I am scummy for attacking Blake so fiercely - if you rule those odds roles (paranoid/insane cop, miller, framer and busdriver) as unlikely, declaring a townie (I'm 100% sure I'm townie) to be guilty means you're knowingly conducting a mislynch, thus you're mafia. So, if you say you don't believe there to be one of those odds roles, it's a logical conclusion that I must attack Blake as fiercely as I can. There is nothing scummy here, it's just my ONLY possibility.

You're suggesting probabilities based on "It would be better if it were like this". That's not the point in mafia. You're supposed to figure out "Which of these is the most realistic"?

Say you guys don't believe me, and you lynch me. Two possible things could happen:
Rodion and his mafia members get a free NK, which I'm assuming they'll use on tails.
OR
My mafia members would kill Rodion.
I've been thinking through it, and if I wasn't the cop, and were trying to figure out who was. I'd assume it were Rodion. As Rodion did one of the tips I read right before my first game (IF you're a power role, throw a bone to someone else to keep suspicion down), eg. he asked for the cop to investigate me N1.

Obviously that didn't happen because I'm the cop. But because of the way he posted, I investigated him. Apparently a good guess, as the result was guilty.

From my eyes, there are two possibilities.
Rodion is scum, and needs to be lynched.
OR
I am insane and therefore get a backwards result, and Rodion isn't.
(I highly doubt he added paranoid / random cop; That would be useless in a small game)

Anyway, this won't end if we keep going on this way. Therefor:

FoS:

Violet, Medefe, jeraado and AoG

You guys gotta start posting, or this will end with Safari posting a deadline.

It's clear now Icon, Rodion, Naxus, Tail Blake and I have made our points. I doubt it's gonna change anytime soon. The pressure is *slightly* going too high ( once again Sorry Rodion, didn't meant to sound harsh..I really get in the game sometimes ) and we're hitting a wall with the same arguments over and over..

blakebowling wrote:
From my eyes, there are two possibilities.
Rodion is scum, and needs to be lynched.
OR
I am insane and therefore get a backwards result, and Rodion isn't.
(I highly doubt he added paranoid / random cop; That would be useless in a small game)

Is it that you don't read other peoples opinions on this matter or blatantly ignore the other possibilities that could be here?