Conquer Club

I don't think so. Some more math to prove it?

scenario1:
Assumption: All players in the tourney are very skilled.
Conclusion1: The games will be mostly decided by luck.
Conclusion2: Chances to advance are 1-0,5^3= 87,5 %

scenario2:
assumption1: We have 300 players of three categories: 100 are highly skilled, 100 are average skilled and 100 are less skilled.

assumtion 2: Every player plays one game against one player of each categorie.

assumption 3: Lets assume the following win chances for the differnt types of games:
high vs high = 50:50
high vs average = 60:40
high vs low = 70:30
average vs average = 50:50
average vs low = 60:40
low vs low = 50:50

So chances for the highly skilled player to advance are: 1-0,5*0,4*0,3=94%
Chances for the average skilled player: 1- 0,6*0,5*0,4=88%
Chances for the low skilled player: 1- 0,5*0,4*0,3= 79 %

Chances on average: (79+88+94)/3 = 87%

If the skill of the players differs the average to advance are slightly lower than in scenario 1.
You can also try it with different numbers like 90:10 for the high skilled player against the low skilled player but you will always get a lower chance on average. (I did not do a proove for this but I'm quite sure that it is like that).


At the moment we are at 82 %. This might be because:
1. Player are skilled differently
2. Some people do not even join games
3. Some people go to holidays and deadbeat all there games
4. Some people do not play all three games although they lost.

So this is enough being geek for today... We will see if I'm right as the tourney continues.

knubbel

qwert wrote:Well these can be easy adjust.
In some future rounds,Highlander can put new rule that each player have 3 chance for advance,but need to join one by one game, and if win first no more join a game.Winner in first game will move forward,and Loser will play second game.
Example:
you have 600 players
first game-300 vs 300-first game 300 winner move to 10 round
second game-150 losers vs 150 losers- 150 winner move to 10 round
third last game-75 losers vs 75 losers-75 winner move to 10 round.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So we start with 600, and 525 move to 10 round and 75 are eliminate from tournament and these is good ,because you will get constant number of elimination each round.
.
Example

saffronfury wrote:How many people moved on to rd8?