[Exp] CYOC! #4 Endgame! Town wins, you filthy animals

[pancakemix]

Been very sick as well hence the lack of input, though it seems not much has progressed since I was last on.

A question for PCM and his role. Something I found curious. The day we lynched Tim he was going down. He was the best lynch for the day. Why waste two votes/50% chance to stop kills when he was as good as lynched anyways? It struck me as curious. If you had one targeted night one how did you have two to vote Tim?

I don't understand your question. It feels like you're asking two different things.

I lost nothing from using the votes, I lost a vote from being targeted by Mets and having it hit a decoy. The shot at me N2 didn't hit a decoy, it hit me. I had a bulletproof vest that was used, which I already explained. That is separate from the whole decoy thing.

[Metsfanmax]

Wait, now I'm super confused. I think in my mind the bulletproof vest and the decoys were the same thing, but now you're saying you both have this decoy role AND you had a bulletproof vest.

Assuming you didn't start with the vest, how did you get it? I didn't create a vest. And no one else who has claimed or been revealed could have. In fact the only vest in this game that has been mentioned (other than you) is ptlowe being 1-shot bulletproof. Plausibly that could mean that he had a vest, and that you somehow got it from me. But the only role that could have plausibly even have done that for you is Streaker's role -- we don't know what the "manipulator" actually is, but it's the only possibility, as he claims to have targeted you N1.

I find it a little strange that you haven't discussed this more. It's not clear that we can trust Streaker's description of his role, so it's hard to figure out whether he really targeted you and what effect that would have had. Neither you nor ptlowe could have targeted each other N1, since neither of you have night actions, and we know that ptlowe used his Spy Glass on Streaker, not on you. So how could any manipulator effect have given you his vest?

Furthermore, if you are telling the truth about the vest and specifically that you know you lost it, why didn't ptlowe get a notification when he lost it and it went to you?

Something doesn't add up here.

[strike wolf]

Sorry all having computer trouble. Have been able to follow on my phone but it was logging me out when I tried to post from it yesterday.

[pancakemix]

Wait, now I'm super confused. I think in my mind the bulletproof vest and the decoys were the same thing, but now you're saying you both have this decoy role AND you had a bulletproof vest.

Assuming you didn't start with the vest, how did you get it? I didn't create a vest. And no one else who has claimed or been revealed could have. In fact the only vest in this game that has been mentioned (other than you) is ptlowe being 1-shot bulletproof. Plausibly that could mean that he had a vest, and that you somehow got it from me. But the only role that could have plausibly even have done that for you is Streaker's role -- we don't know what the "manipulator" actually is, but it's the only possibility, as he claims to have targeted you N1.

I find it a little strange that you haven't discussed this more. It's not clear that we can trust Streaker's description of his role, so it's hard to figure out whether he really targeted you and what effect that would have had. Neither you nor ptlowe could have targeted each other N1, since neither of you have night actions, and we know that ptlowe used his Spy Glass on Streaker, not on you. So how could any manipulator effect have given you his vest?

Furthermore, if you are telling the truth about the vest and specifically that you know you lost it, why didn't ptlowe get a notification when he lost it and it went to you?

Something doesn't add up here.

Assuming I didn't start with it would be incorrect. N1 there was a 100% chance of me getting targeted as there were no decoys (whether or not I was targeted by Streaker is irrelevant). On N2, it was 50% (according to the scene, I was and survived because of the vest). On N3, there was a 33% chance (I was not, I lost a decoy).

As for ptlowe, I have no idea. I was under the impression you still believed he HADN'T been shot, so I'm not sure where that comes from.

[ptlowe]

I kind of agree with mets. The vest and the duplicates are throwing me off and i dont completely understand the duplicates. How are they created. Are they randomly matched verse a killing stroke?

[strike wolf]

Pancake gaining a bp vest from Streaker taking it away from PT could explain End's demise N3.

[Metsfanmax]

Well, but PCM is saying he had the vest from the beginning. I admit that I find this unlikely given his role -- but more unlikely than Streaker somehow giving pt's vest to PCM? I am not sure.

[strike wolf]

Understand that I am assuming guilt on pancakes parts. unvote

[Metsfanmax]

I still think it's vastly more likely that End targeted Hotshot not ptlowe. First, the flavor text is more consistent with a mirror and not being shot by a PGO, and second who the hell would shoot at a PGO.

[pancakemix]

Understand that I am assuming guilt on pancakes parts. unvote

Of what?

I also don't understand the need for Streaker's action to be involved.Why do you even think that's a factor? Why even consider it? Either it's a deliberate attempt at convolution or a refusal to understand.

If it's the former, you can't have it both ways. Scum have tried to manipulate me and kill me on consecutive nights. Unless you have an alternative explanation to those events, I can't see how you can mark me as scum at this stage.

[strike wolf]

I mean in terms of my above comment. The theory assumes guilt and that you would be lying. As of right now I am only conceding that we need to talk things over more.

[Metsfanmax]

While it's possible that pcm is lying, I think all the evidence points against it. I do think he's been pushing himself just a little too hard as confirmed town, but still the evidence speaks for itself. At the end of the day, he's right that the only explanation for him getting shot at on N2 is that he's not scum.

So for me it's still a hotshot/strike/IB discussion.

[HotShot53]

I still think PCM putting in the lynch yesterday clears him. SW trying to raise doubt about him is another scum sign to me, so I am still sticking to either one or both of SW & IB are the scum.

[Metsfanmax]

I realized that we haven't yet really used any information about virus to help us. The scene has no useful information, so let's look at some examples of what the remaining players have said about virus before today:

So now mitch, in addition to hard defending streaker yesterday, goes after virus for being inactive, and while true, virus is often a town inactive so it could just be an easy push for mitch to make without having to really scum hunt. He then goes after ptlowe, questioning his role, and then wanting to lynch him for it. But he makes sure we know he's not actually voting for ptlowe for some reason (it's not like we are near endgane yet... people still need 6 votes to be lynched). After ptlowe caught streaker yesterday, he's the least likely to be scum...

I tend to agree with you [Streaker] about Virus though. Little contribution. Kind of just jumped into the main wagon today. Similar could probably be said of Hotshot though I recall him being a bit more active than Virus has. Hard to gauge your reads though. I am more convinced now that you are scum than after the spyglass reading but a smart scum wouldn't out right lie and there are going to be a lot of half truths mixed in.

It is funny how you conveniently show up after someone says. My biggest scum read is Virus lol.

Virus is playing like Virus. He is always hard to read or trust. He has also played this way and come in to save the day. Virus has been on you since day one. It has been the small things. If I hear one more person say, "I need to re-read" I am going to hurl. But yeh...your posts have been all fluff no substance. Posting for the sake of posting.

- I'm ruling out virus. Scum obviously aren't passive this game and virus hasn't been active enough to be killing anybody (that, and he's always on the low end of the activity spectrum, so I'd say that's not alignment indicative). Anyone going after him is looking for low-hanging fruit, which I think is scummy (looking at you, Mitch).

[pancakemix]

There's not much to extrapolate there though. All that's really there is people saying virus is inactive, mainly the people who know virus' MO (and that did hold true).

For the sake of parity, I looked for a similar post on virus from Mets. There wasn't one. There wasn't much on virus at all really. Again, the lack of activity on his part is evident.

[TheForgivenOne]

Just an update. Had my second operation and doing good. Should be 100% by Wednesday

[strike wolf]

Good luck TFO.

@HOT: Its more that I am taking it seriously. If you IB are scum than mislynch ING one of you today doesn't hurt us much. If Pancake is scum with multiple votes it hurts us a lot. Right now I still lean with him being town but the vest thing shook that frrling a bit and i want to consider it at the least and feel reasonably secure in that feeling before I dismiss it.

[Metsfanmax]

There's not much to extrapolate there though. All that's really there is people saying virus is inactive, mainly the people who know virus' MO (and that did hold true).

I agree. I started out hopeful I would find something, but it ended up being kind of pointless. If anything the most interesting thing was Streaker pushing on virus, when Streaker knows just as much as any of us regulars how virus plays.

For the sake of parity, I looked for a similar post on virus from Mets. There wasn't one. There wasn't much on virus at all really. Again, the lack of activity on his part is evident.

I would have included it if there was anything to include

@TFO: wonderful!

[ptlowe]

Right now I'd lynch strike or ib. Strike has been more active so ib is leading my vote. If who we lynch flips town and pcm lives through night I may conclude it's him

[Metsfanmax]

There's no reason for mafia to shoot at anyone other than me. You can't die, pcm has a 50% chance of not dying, and I have no protection and I make useful items for town.

[Metsfanmax]

Ok. So, we need to move and we're not going to get any more information out of the day. While I think Hotshot is the most probable mafia candidate, Hotshot's role is also useless now. IB's role also isn't a threat to town. However, if strike (say) is scum, then his bus driving will be really dangerous to town. And if strike + IB are a scum duo, then lynching hotshot is the worst possible move. So, even though I am not reading strike as mafia, I have to admit that lynching him is the rational choice. We may lynch him, but assuming everyone is truthful about their roles, it's not a MYLO situation.

Suppose we lynch strike and he flips town. Then my N4 action will be set up so that town can figure out who out of HotShot and IB is the remaining scum is on D5 (I won't say now how I'm going to achieve that; you'll know when it's time).

So, vote strike wolf.

[ptlowe]

vote strileIll go with you mets.

[strike wolf]

Strategically speaking IB is actually the most dangerous. He is the one with the highest chance of actually being able to kill PCM (The most dangerous role to mafia as end game approaches because he makes it more difficult for a mislynch to occur). Even if I was to busdrive PCM to try to remove his decoy, I would still have to take a chance that the busdrive deflected the decoy and not him and then I just end up killing whoever I busdrove him with. IB instead can use his RC ability to remove the decoy and then kill him. IB if telling the truth about the mirror is the only player here who can target anyone in the game (PT) included without dying as his mirror would reflect any PGO attempt, if what he said is the truth about still having it. I don't go simply by strategy though. Strategy alone is boring. I want to hit scum today. It's the reason I am still questioning people like Pancake who are most likely town.

I also brought up early balance wise a 4th investigative role (direct or indirect, cop, tracker, joat) is unbalanced even not considering the possible spy glass gift as an extra one time investigate as is having three near unkillable roles (again boosted by the mirror gift). Though the new limits presented about PCM's role actually make the near unkillable role situation a little more balanced as each has a catch. So balancewise I actually find IB the most likely killer.

Hotshot to an extent is even playing to his MO where he doesn't stand out too much (though I generally find him more active as town and I don't feel like town Hotshot gives up so easily). The problem with him is that at the moment his role is unverifiable. We can only speculate that he is town as of right now (The verification would basically be mets or IB targeting him and seeing if their actions bounce back to them. This could be trusted in any situation where it is generally conceded that me and Hotshot are unlikely scum buddies)

Overall though my gut still tells me Hotshot and right now, I would rather lynch hotshot.

[Metsfanmax]

Strategically speaking IB is actually the most dangerous. He is the one with the highest chance of actually being able to kill PCM (The most dangerous role to mafia as end game approaches because he makes it more difficult for a mislynch to occur). Even if I was to busdrive PCM to try to remove his decoy, I would still have to take a chance that the busdrive deflected the decoy and not him and then I just end up killing whoever I busdrove him with.

IB has the symmetrical problem -- his role cop could hit the actual PCM and his "kill" could hit the decoy, leaving PCM alive.

IB instead can use his RC ability to remove the decoy and then kill him. IB if telling the truth about the mirror

IB had a mirror. IB no longer has a mirror. It was a two-night mirror given to him on N2, so it's no longer active.

I don't go simply by strategy though. Strategy alone is boring. I want to hit scum today. It's the reason I am still questioning people like Pancake who are most likely town.

I know, and I feel a little guilty suggesting such a vanilla tactical move rather than scum hunting. But the thing is it's not just about me -- there's 10+ other people on my team, and I have to do my best to win at least for their sake.

I also brought up early balance wise a 4th investigative role (direct or indirect, cop, tracker, joat) is unbalanced

I consider IB's role as close to confirmed as possible. He stated his investigative results before you said who you busdrove. Unless he got fantastically lucky by falsely saying he investigated the same people you happened to busdrive on N1 and N2, he's telling the truth.

Though the new limits presented about PCM's role actually make the near unkillable role situation a little more balanced as each has a catch. So balancewise I actually find IB the most likely killer.

It kind of sounds like you're trying to infer balance from what is happening now rather than how the game started. Nothing guarantees that the present situation is balanced, and there's little value in trying to extrapolate from it.

Hotshot to an extent is even playing to his MO where he doesn't stand out too much (though I generally find him more active as town and I don't feel like town Hotshot gives up so easily). The problem with him is that at the moment his role is unverifiable.

Aside from the possibility of myself or IB targeting him tonight, his role was verified by the day scene. Don't try to misdirect us on that one.

[strike wolf]

Strategically speaking IB is actually the most dangerous. He is the one with the highest chance of actually being able to kill PCM (The most dangerous role to mafia as end game approaches because he makes it more difficult for a mislynch to occur). Even if I was to busdrive PCM to try to remove his decoy, I would still have to take a chance that the busdrive deflected the decoy and not him and then I just end up killing whoever I busdrove him with.

IB has the symmetrical problem -- his role cop could hit the actual PCM and his "kill" could hit the decoy, leaving PCM alive.

And I'd have the same problem as that. Admittedly, I hadn't thought of it earlier but as scum I could probably busdrive him with you just in case it did fail.

IB instead can use his RC ability to remove the decoy and then kill him. IB if telling the truth about the mirror

IB had a mirror. IB no longer has a mirror. It was a two-night mirror given to him on N2, so it's no longer active.

New information. See this changes things. IB had suggested his mirror was still active possibly to protect himself from being targeted as town. I will admit that this being true than IB is not the most strategic lynch.

I don't go simply by strategy though. Strategy alone is boring. I want to hit scum today. It's the reason I am still questioning people like Pancake who are most likely town.

I know, and I feel a little guilty suggesting such a vanilla tactical move rather than scum hunting. But the thing is it's not just about me -- there's 10+ other people on my team, and I have to do my best to win at least for their sake.

Than lynch who you actually think is scum.

I also brought up early balance wise a 4th investigative role (direct or indirect, cop, tracker, joat) is unbalanced

I consider IB's role as close to confirmed as possible. He stated his investigative results before you said who you busdrove. Unless he got fantastically lucky by falsely saying he investigated the same people you happened to busdrive on N1 and N2, he's telling the truth.

I was unclear. It's not IB's role I am questioning. I think I've stated more than once that he is verified in my eyes. It is his alignment. You know very well that Role Cop is often if not usually a scum role and there's already a few roles with at least a limited investigative ability on town's side.

Though the new limits presented about PCM's role actually make the near unkillable role situation a little more balanced as each has a catch. So balancewise I actually find IB the most likely killer.

It kind of sounds like you're trying to infer balance from what is happening now rather than how the game started. Nothing guarantees that the present situation is balanced, and there's little value in trying to extrapolate from it.

No I am trying to determine if three near unkillable roles in a game that started with 15 players, a vig, an SK and a mafia group is balanced. It's on the high side with a doc and joat protect also involved IMO but not necessarily imbalanced considering the limitations.

Hotshot to an extent is even playing to his MO where he doesn't stand out too much (though I generally find him more active as town and I don't feel like town Hotshot gives up so easily). The problem with him is that at the moment his role is unverifiable.

Aside from the possibility of myself or IB targeting him tonight, his role was verified by the day scene. Don't try to misdirect us on that one.

But that's the thing it wasn't. Both kills could have hit IB. We really don't know just from the scene that it had to be two different people with mirrors targeted. I also submit that the Mirror doesn't prove alignment. I admit balance speaking IB is the correct lynch in my mind. However after that initial discourse I keep coming back to HS. It is in part because despite hinting that he was trying to do otherwise, he never stood out to become a target for mafia to try to kill in this game. I can't even really argue that he seemed to try to fake at being a power role that mafia would try to target by laying low. He just was almost forgotten about at times.

@IB and Hotshot: Would you be informed if your mirror was used last night and if so, were you told that it was?