Balance Not Included Mafia 3/12 End Game: Balance. Town Wins

[StorrZerg]

pcm i see you.....

[pancakemix]

Wait. You think DJ is scum based on mtam's meta? That don't make no sense. Also doesn't make sense to not lynch virus just because there hasn't been a counter, and a DJ isn't going to get the traction at this point. I'm haven't terribly been on your side up to this point Storr. I think you've been on me and Mets for the show of it. FOS and I'll be giving you a solid look tomorrow

As far as Mets goes, while I still think there are some unanswered questions, they obviously don't hold enough weight to sway anyone at this juncture. I'll keep an eye on it, but don't expect me to come out swinging tomorrow (I know, you can all breathe easy).

Believe it or not, I agree with Mets here. I prefer the potential outcomes with virus dead as opposed to him being alive.

Unvote vote virus

Those aren't complete thoughts, but I'm in a rush. See you on the other side, peeps.

SHUT UP STORR I'M POSTING

[StorrZerg]

Saw you virus, better post, don't use this wagon switch as a reason to not post

[strike wolf]

Vote Count

DJfireside (3)-Spiesr, StorrZerg, Mtam
Virus90 (6)-Iron Butterfly, Hotshot, Jonty, Djfireside, Metsfanmax, PCM
MetsfanMax
Storrzerg (1)-Jamesker
Streaker
Pancakemix
Iron butterfly (1)-Virus90
Jonty (1)-Streaker

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch. Virus is at L-1

Deadline in less than 6 hours at 1159 EST

[spiesr]

Pancakemix, about this post, what motive are you assuming a scum Mets would have in doing the thing in Point 1 without creating a situation where he was right about the thing in Point 2?

They've given reasons. I at least understand their logic so I can't fault them for being reasoned. Granted I don't usually go off like this on D1, but I do do it (mostly with jak).

Does the knowledge that it with Jak at least there wasn't a strong correlation between when it happened and his alignment give you reason to reconsider what you are doing here?

That's the first point: trying to stifle an argument by invoking the holy acronym without cause.

I merely was voicing my opinion that it was stupid and I would not participate in it without a good reason. I did not attempt to actively stifle any discussion. No lynching threats were made, etc. I just said an argument was bad.

Calling an argument/discussion stupid and refusing to engage with it seems like a way to stifle said discussion.

When I asked him to bring up the math he got and after he explained it it surprises me he included himself in the 3/11 and not make it 3/10 removing himself from the equation. If you include a lynch today and we hit town instead of mafia it becomes 3/9. Still losing odds but better then 3/11. I always exclude myself out of odds and probabilities when Im town.

You can't exclude yourself from that math when you aren't the one shooting. Virus doesn't know if you are scum or not.

Virus, I have an idea that could test your claim. Would you be willing to use your action on yourself tonight?

[mtamburini]

Is that possible can you use actions on yourself? I like funky plays so I'm curious what your plan is

[StorrZerg]

less than 5 hours... Even if we did do something funky, i can't imagine we could coordinate something. It seems like virus has failed to post, and yes he was on.
I'm wondering if its best to lynch him. So that we at least get a lynch to happen.

[mtamburini]

It's not looking promising, I'm just questioning right now whether or not if virus isn't lynched here and lasts for the rest of this game would I lynch him later on or just ride with him til the end. I would rather see Dj lynched today but no one is around here at eod

[Metsfanmax]

Everyone needs to hop on dj wagon now.
no one has counter claimed being a vig, likely that Virus is real. We only have roughly 6 hours.

That's absurd! There are likely multiple killing roles in this game. There's no reason to expect that someone would actually counterclaim in this game, we have no idea what the setup is. I'm also not entirely sure what the case on DJ actually is, so I'm leaving my vote where it is.

[StorrZerg]

disagree, i doubt roles are the same.
(unless its something role specific together)
(shit guys i just confirmed im not a vig o lord)

[Metsfanmax]

disagree, i doubt roles are the same.
(unless its something role specific together)
(shit guys i just confirmed im not a vig o lord)

I'm not saying there's multiple vigilantes here. I'm saying that, for example, town could have both a one-shot vig and a JOAT, and the JOAT would have no reason to counterclaim the vigilante since they're completely different roles.

[StorrZerg]

disagree, i doubt roles are the same.
(unless its something role specific together)
(shit guys i just confirmed im not a vig o lord)

I'm not saying there's multiple vigilantes here. I'm saying that, for example, town could have both a one-shot vig and a JOAT, and the JOAT would have no reason to counterclaim the vigilante since they're completely different roles.

yeah i fail to see the reason you posted this. I don't think it changes my point.

[Metsfanmax]

disagree, i doubt roles are the same.
(unless its something role specific together)
(shit guys i just confirmed im not a vig o lord)

I'm not saying there's multiple vigilantes here. I'm saying that, for example, town could have both a one-shot vig and a JOAT, and the JOAT would have no reason to counterclaim the vigilante since they're completely different roles.

yeah i fail to see the reason you posted this. I don't think it changes my point.

It does. A lack of counterclaim only matters when you expect the role to be in the game. If someone claims town doctor in a normal game, and that doesn't get counterclaimed, that's meaningful because town has a doctor virtually every time. One-shot vig is not expected to be in every game to begin with, and there's really nothing to go on in an explicitly unbalanced game. So the lack of a counterclaim doesn't allow you to draw any conclusions. It's possible that there was just never a one-shot vig in this game to begin with, which means that there couldn't be anyone counterclaiming.

[StorrZerg]

this line of conversation isn't going any where. (tbh imo it makes him look more town)


Thing is, virus was on. He failed to post. I find that scummy.

Tambo, you going to be on ill request you change your vote back to virus, in about 2 hours if your online. (pending any words from virus) I'd still like to give him some time.

[StorrZerg]

o nvm. Its L-1. Thought it was l-2.

since that is the case, i'll be hammering virus in about 2 hours or so. (if he fails to post/say anything)

[StorrZerg]

whats your thought hotshot

[HotShot53]

kk fyi. mafia have fake claims in this game. This shouldn't be a surprise based on what we have. You know to help prevent a mass claim from working.

SO i'm REALLY questioning people who are "saying the claim is weak" or w/e cause or saying "well i expected batman to be different " blah. (correct me if im wrong, but i think dj was pushing that)

How did you find this out? If this is true, then if virus is making a fake claim he won't be counterclaimed because he already knows no-one else has this role. Which would mean either he is a 1-shot vig, or there is no similar vig in the game. Either one I could see happening, since this is balance-not-included mafia after all. His lack of posting even though he is on the chopping block doesn't look good for him either. Worst-case scenario, we lynch a 1-shot vig who was going to take a potshot tonight anyway. Best case, we lynch a scum. Either way, we get more info than a no-lynch. So I will leave my vote where it is for now.

FP by Storr... I was typing lol, taking a 2 min break while at work that I really shouldn't be, but figured I should get my comment out before day's end

[HotShot53]

*2 1 minute breaks separated by 15 min of working lol

[StorrZerg]

kk fyi. mafia have fake claims in this game. This shouldn't be a surprise based on what we have. You know to help prevent a mass claim from working.

SO i'm REALLY questioning people who are "saying the claim is weak" or w/e cause or saying "well i expected batman to be different " blah. (correct me if im wrong, but i think dj was pushing that)

How did you find this out? If this is true, then if virus is making a fake claim he won't be counterclaimed because he already knows no-one else has this role. Which would mean either he is a 1-shot vig, or there is no similar vig in the game. Either one I could see happening, since this is balance-not-included mafia after all. His lack of posting even though he is on the chopping block doesn't look good for him either. Worst-case scenario, we lynch a 1-shot vig who was going to take a potshot tonight anyway. Best case, we lynch a scum. Either way, we get more info than a no-lynch. So I will leave my vote where it is for now.

FP by Storr... I was typing lol, taking a 2 min break while at work that I really shouldn't be, but figured I should get my comment out before day's end

asked the mod. + previous game i played where he hosted had fake claims.
Its likely if he is mafia, that might be true.

i tend to agree a lynch is better than no lynch. I think "pot shot " is weak. I think if he is town, he should have a fairly good idea of who to shoot. With so many people pushing him, if he weeds out the people that seem serious about the case, and just looks at the people who are bandwagoning poorly i think he would have a solid shot. Alternatively, he could shoot someone that is low key, not interested in the main discussion (few odd ball people with outside votes that don't care about the game at hand it seems, james comes to mind) Though this doesn't matter since he is afk. (though maybe if we hav another townie with a shot, you could consider this)

Actually, ill give my input to any other "townies with shots" If Virus flips town, a mafia or two is probably in it. Look for the people with weak reasoning, (specifically those attached to early day 1 virus play) Those who don't seem to be figuring out the game. I'd stay away from shooting, mets, pcm, tambo, (myself) spiesr since i believe these people are showing townie characteristics in this game.

[virus90]

4 a.m. should go to bed and not even check CC but i think im addicted.
this post is not gonna be making a lot of sense, its friday 4.am..

@metsfanmax, i am just a 1-shot vig, maybe there is a 1-shot vig, but for the same reasoning i think if i would have claimed 1-shot vig, there could have been 2, and although i think its not likely, there might be 2 vigi's aswell. as you say, its not balanced, why would it be impossbile to have 2 roles of the same/. similar tpye.

@storr: which wagon switch ? as far a i know everyone is still on me. you where right i was online at some point, but to be honest my "real life" goes before my games any time, reading and responding takes me a lot of time and when im with friends i dont nescesarlty want to tkae thjat time (understatement). look: i want to play this game, and be lynched day 1 would suck, it might not be the worse case for town since i am not the most powerfull role in the game with my 1-shot, but personally it would suck because i like this game. i have a premium acount and can play as much games as i like but generally i tent to have around 10 -20 games at a time because CC is a hobby for me and i check it often because i generally only would spend 5 min online since i have so little games going on on this site, actually i think maffia generally takes me more time then taking my turns since i am already typing for 15 minutes at this point.

@mtam, i dont know if its possible to lynch myself. and at the moment i have a hard time thinking about the pro's and cons... the tactis and thoughts are a bit deep for the time.
pro's: i prove my claim, i dont accidently kill another towny with a more powerfull role, if i use it random im useless after that point anyway, so a useless player goes away...
cons: i am dead (i dont really like that, althgout it might not be worst case for town, althought i am a teampalyer i still have some egocentric thinking in me), also i might have the right idea on who is mafia and kill a mafia, so it would be 1 - less shot on mafia, as i said before i think i have a 40% chance of hitting maffia, which might be altered by further examining. i cannot think of any other cons at the moment.

my vote is still on IB, in my opinion he hasnt contirvuted anything since i posted, and in my opinion he stiell bandwaggonedd on me, the one thing he said was: why would you let a vig should blindly: to which i would say; see my previous post, not shooting tonight by me would mean another discussion tomorrow if i am the vig or not, In my opinion that would distract from the hunt on scum, yes i get the comments posted that its hard to prove that i was the one who shot someone but i am willign to be the first D2 to post and say who of the guy(s) i targeted that got killed, blatently saying who i am gonna shoot now would mean certain Town loss i think since if its town mafia would let me go ahead, and if its mafia i think mafia might have a way to make sure i wont succeed, the positive side of that would be that we might know that the targeted person is mafia.

ok im out, as structered as my thoughts where at the moment, i hope im still alive "tomorrow".

[Metsfanmax]

@metsfanmax, i am just a 1-shot vig, maybe there is a 1-shot vig, but for the same reasoning i think if i would have claimed 1-shot vig, there could have been 2, and although i think its not likely, there might be 2 vigi's aswell. as you say, its not balanced, why would it be impossbile to have 2 roles of the same/. similar tpye.

That's not impossible. I wasn't saying there aren't two vig's either. I'm just saying, there's certainly no reason to think that there has to be any in this game, and certainly after that, that there has to be exactly one. I was thinking the same thing you said here in my original post, I just didn't want to make it too complicated in my response to Storr.

[spiesr]

Well, since I didn't get a commitment to follow any sort of plan out of Virus I will just go ahead and hammer.
Unvote, Vote Virus

[StorrZerg]

I assume day is over then.

[pancakemix]

Pancakemix, about this post, what motive are you assuming a scum Mets would have in doing the thing in Point 1 without creating a situation where he was right about the thing in Point 2?

To generally shut down discussion with no regard for the discussion he is shutting down itself. Point 2 is bad logic intended to confound (and he admitted that the logic was faulty). All of the points lead to suffocating D1 to give mafia an extra step on town going into D2.

Does the knowledge that it with Jak at least there wasn't a strong correlation between when it happened and his alignment give you reason to reconsider what you are doing here?

No, because that's not always indicative of his alignment. Taking into consideration three incidents where jak and I had a protracted argument similar to the one here, once in that time he was scum. Given the small sample size of those arguments, I can't call it conclusive one way or the other, but there's evidence to suggest either alignment is possible.

Bee tee dubs, and it's moot now regardless, but Batman famously has a no-kill rule, if we really want to get into that sort of flavor shenanigans.

[strike wolf]

Vote Count

DJfireside (2)-StorrZerg, Mtam
Virus90 (7)-Iron Butterfly, Hotshot, Jonty, Djfireside, Metsfanmax, PCM, Spiesr
MetsfanMax
Storrzerg (1)-Jamesker
Streaker
Pancakemix
Iron butterfly (1)-Virus90
Jonty (1)-Streaker

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch. Virus has been lynched. It is now twilight. You may continue talking until scene is posted.