Balance Not Included Mafia 3/12 End Game: Balance. Town Wins

[Iron Butterfly]

This new board pisses me off. I had my post and it got deleted because I had to log in. I am to tired to rewrite, which is probably for the best.

There are to many WIFOM scenarios with where we are it drives me nits. My top two choices would be Spiesr and DJ. Spiesr because he can kill. DJ because out of everyone he has played the most suspect. Now if Spiesr was blocked and I had the choice between the two I would vote to lynch DJ. That is not the case however. DJ and I are blocked.

I am now suspect because i was blocked/protected. I think that not killing was a gambit by SK/mafia knowing that with the roles left it would be better to not kill and see what happens. If we lynch Spiesr and he turns out Town weather PCM is Town or mafia there will be no night kills as jonty will lock him down. Ironically we get the scenario Spiesr suggested. Everyone locked down minus spiesr.

[Djfireside]

Here is my idea and I think it works.

I Lynch PCM. If correct I should survive based on his statement cause of the vest. I dont believe I will but its an idea and will open me up
Leaving 4 alive.
Jonty blocks Spies keeping everyone else blocked, if there is a kill you lynch me and thats the end but there wont be based on what I have seen thus far if im right on how
blocking works.
I will give out an invention to Jonty to prove my role but doesnt have to be used. It may give more information to Jonty so he can make the decision and hopefully work out.
That will leave, Myself, Jonty, Spies and IB.
Can have a NL if wanted and block me again and lynch whoever at that point.

[spiesr]

Hey, sorry for my low activity lately, I have been real busy. Let me now update on where I stand today.
Iron Butterfly is my number one choice right now. I am feeling some scummy vibes there, can't really give a more elaborate reason without a reread that I likely won't have time for until Wednesday. I admit that this feeling my be influenced by some of the things he has said in apparent misunderstanding. I guess that shouldn't really influence a logical decision, but it certainly effects how I feel about it. Also, I can't rule out that he deliberately dropped false ideas in the hope that others would believe them and misplay as a result, it is pretty unlikely though.

Here is my idea and I think it works.

I Lynch PCM. If correct I should survive based on his statement cause of the vest. I dont believe I will but its an idea and will open me up
Leaving 4 alive.
Jonty blocks Spies keeping everyone else blocked, if there is a kill you lynch me and thats the end but there wont be based on what I have seen thus far if im right on how
blocking works.
I will give out an invention to Jonty to prove my role but doesnt have to be used. It may give more information to Jonty so he can make the decision and hopefully work out.
That will leave, Myself, Jonty, Spies and IB.
Can have a NL if wanted and block me again and lynch whoever at that point.

I don't really like this plan. The issue I have with it is that we don't know what your role really is. If you are scum it is possible that you could take an action that would allow you a second kill or otherwise mess something up. I am uncomfortable with that right now.

[jonty125]

Another problem with DJ's plan, he's assuming I survive N4, That is something I doubt.

[Iron Butterfly]

Hey, sorry for my low activity lately, I have been real busy. Let me now update on where I stand today.
Iron Butterfly is my number one choice right now. I am feeling some scummy vibes there, can't really give a more elaborate reason without a reread that I likely won't have time for until Wednesday. I admit that this feeling my be influenced by some of the things he has said in apparent misunderstanding. I guess that shouldn't really influence a logical decision, but it certainly effects how I feel about it. Also, I can't rule out that he deliberately dropped false ideas in the hope that others would believe them and misplay as a result, it is pretty unlikely though.

Here is my idea and I think it works.

I Lynch PCM. If correct I should survive based on his statement cause of the vest. I dont believe I will but its an idea and will open me up
Leaving 4 alive.
Jonty blocks Spies keeping everyone else blocked, if there is a kill you lynch me and thats the end but there wont be based on what I have seen thus far if im right on how
blocking works.
I will give out an invention to Jonty to prove my role but doesnt have to be used. It may give more information to Jonty so he can make the decision and hopefully work out.
That will leave, Myself, Jonty, Spies and IB.
Can have a NL if wanted and block me again and lynch whoever at that point.

I don't really like this plan. The issue I have with it is that we don't know what your role really is. If you are scum it is possible that you could take an action that would allow you a second kill or otherwise mess something up. I am uncomfortable with that right now.

Perhaps it's the fact I feel you should be lynched out of everyone else at this point?

[Djfireside]

Another problem with DJ's plan, he's assuming I survive N4, That is something I doubt.

That was why I laid it out as I did. With 4 people going into the night if I did kill Jonty I would be lynch the next day and that would end the game.

Perhaps it's the fact I feel you should be lynched out of everyone else at this point?

I feel the same about you so I can only expect the same in return as I said from my first statement after you said you were blocked I responded with why did noone die. Since we are the ones who are blocked I have to assume its one of us unless mafia was being coy and not performing a kill.

I don't really like this plan. The issue I have with it is that we don't know what your role really is. If you are scum it is possible that you could take an action that would allow you a second kill or otherwise mess something up. I am uncomfortable with that right now.

Mafia Already had a One-Shot kill role so that odds of there being another kill role is next to zero especially in a game this size. So for me being scum the worst that would happen is what I explained with Jonty. Bring it down to 4 people, if I was to kill someone that would be 3 lynch me done.

At worst case if PCM is Bomb and Vest doesnt protect me its a crap shoot next day for Jonty to decide.

Since I have the only viable helpful role left I think it works. I have covered both sides whether you think im scummy or not and it covers all aspects. THere are only a few minor ways this could fail at this point but I think it has good measure to it.

[pancakemix]

My problems with my lynch and DJ hammering are:

1. I'm out. This might sound selfish, but I've been pushing hard all game, particularly on DJ at this juncture. It seems like a concerted effort to remove me from play AND to get active at once.

2. I don't like the thought of him being unblocked, because it just creates a scenario with more potential WIFOM in a no-kill scenario. Do we really need that?

3. If DJ is mafia, it's hard to figure out how this works in his favor, but what if he's cult? This assumes either spiesr or IB is mafia, but what if DJ is trying to gift something that could make someone cult? Can he even do that? It's a stretch, I know, but it's not a road I want to travel down.

[Iron Butterfly]

This is where we are at.

There comes a point where we have to lynch regardless. We also need to survive the night, that is jonty does as we know he is Town. DJ and I are locked down. Regardless what you think we are we can not do anything at night. Spiesr and PCM are not locked down. The only way to insure jonties survival is to lynch one of them. Jonty can lock down the other.

A no lynch puts jonty at risk of being killed. There is a 50-50 chance jonty chooses wrong/right. IF either PCM or Spiesr are Mafia/sk and IF They decide to kill jonty Town still have only a 50-50 chance of getting it right.

The only way to 100% guarantee that Jonty lives and for there to be no night kills is to lynch Spiesr or PCM.

[jonty125]

lynch Spiesr or PCM.

We could effectively do both by having spiesr hammer pcm.

But if spiesr, is mafia, and 'gets cold feet' that could have a messy ending.

[pancakemix]

lynch Spiesr or PCM.

We could effectively do both by having spiesr hammer pcm.

But if spiesr, is mafia, and 'gets cold feet' that could have a messy ending.

That, and I still hold that 4 alive tomorrow give us better odds, and the business of actually setting up spiesr hammering me in the first place. I don't think it's as much of a numbers game as it might be, but I'm willing to throw my vote on spiesr for the sake of having everyone locked down.

Vote spiesr

[Djfireside]

I just had a long day at hospital and want to respond but need sleep. Will be on later to interject.

[strike wolf]

Vote Count

Spiesr (1)-Pancakemix

With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch. There is one day left until deadline.

[jonty125]

vote spiesr can't trust a CPR doc too much.

[Djfireside]

I understand that my idea is not golden but it has logic prowess. At this point, We have a few options and each assumes we dont find mafia in a lynch

Let the day end with a NL:
a) Noone dies, someone gets blocked continue on
b) Jonty dies and finger pointed at Spies/PCM based on blocked knowledge

Lynch on of the unblocked: lynch either Spies/PCM
a) Other gets blocked, no night kill. Everyone blocked. Continue on with blocked manhunt
b) nightkill, lynch the other one

Lynch the Blocked: lynch either DJ OR IB
a) noone dies, new person gets blocked and continue on with lynching most suspect
b) NK happens, 50/50 shot on who is mafia

At this point I have been trying to come up with a reason that someone wouldnt use the nightkill and I can not come up with one. Going into last night I was the only one blocked, the night ended short meaning everyone responded so wasnt a absense issue. Killing Jonty then would have been prudent leaving 4 people and 25% chance to get it right before town lost so that makes no sense.

At this point I concur with the given plan and get everyone blocked off. Lynching Spies with bring us to 4 and if he is town which I believe he is, there will be two available lynches left which I would suggest goes IB and if Im wrong you can lynch me since that would be the only logic conclusion based on my analysis above.

Let us see how the cookie crumbles.

Vote Spies

[Iron Butterfly]

You beat me to it so that's a lynch.

[strike wolf]

Vote Count

Spiesr (3)-Pancakemix, Jonty, DJfire

With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch. There is one day left until deadline.

Lynch noted. Scene soon.

[strike wolf]

Cardio-Pulminary Recalibration

Dr. Clear was walking along the street. As always he had his trusty chest paddles with him. Now what most around the town knew but Dr. Clear never accepted was that he wasn't a real doctor. See you have to go to medical school and pass a bunch of classes and pay extravagant fees before you become a Doctor. Dr. Clear barely graduated from the local Junior College. This didn't matter, he thought. As soon as they saw him with his chest paddles and white coat, they would realize he was a doctor. Unfortunately, when they saw him with the paddles they went back and looked at the body of Reginald Philman. After matching the kill marks and Dr. Clear's previous confession (which of course no one took seriously because again, he's not a real doctor), the town decided that they'd better be safe to sorry and hung poor Dr. Clear.

Spiesr-Dr. Clear-Town CPR Doctor

It is now N4. You have 48 hours to send in night actions.

[strike wolf]

N4 has ended in no deaths. With 4 alive it takes 3 to lynch. Will see if I have time for a scene later.

[pancakemix]

I didn't get a vest last night.

[Iron Butterfly]

Jonty to busy to send night action?

If you were mafia would you have killed him knowing DJ and I could not?

[pancakemix]

I didn't get a vest last night.

Scratch that, just got it.

[pancakemix]

'Kay, well if we're all done talking...

I'm sticking with my gut. Like I said, I think DJ is the scummiest up to this point for his behavior during the James affair and completely backing off during the Storr one. So, Vote DJ

[jonty125]

I did send a vest to pcm.

Here are my thoughts. I know I didn't attempt the kill last night, and IB has been blocked.

So that leaves 2 scenarios either a) I blocked pcm's kill attempt or b) DJ didn't submit a kill last night, both of these are possible.

IB thoughts? and pcm + DJ for that matter.

[pancakemix]

I did send a vest to pcm.

Here are my thoughts. I know I didn't attempt the kill last night, and IB has been blocked.

So that leaves 2 scenarios either a) I blocked pcm's kill attempt or b) DJ didn't submit a kill last night, both of these are possible.

IB thoughts? and pcm + DJ for that matter.

DJ is blocked too? I thought the point was to get everyone blocked.

Personally, I think you have to consider me as town. That's kinda blunt I know but really think about it: Mafia's got to do the math on whether or not it's worth it to no kill N3. It's not. It plays mindgames but it doesn't gain anything. In fact, I don't think you can figure a scenario where it does unless town doesn't think it through (hard luck with the lot we had left).

I've actually changed my mind. Unvote Vote IB. I'm making this change based on killer activity in prior days and the abrupt end to deaths on N3. Regardless, it's definitely either DJ or IB.

[Djfireside]

As I have said since IB got blocked and there was no Kill it appears to lie with him. I dont see why anyone would have held the kill back two nights ago so only thing left was the blocked and as I have stated here is my vote if spies can back town as I said he should.

Vote IB