Mind of Skoffin Mafia DAY 3

[Ragian]

What you call defensive was me attacking you. I guess you can me shape it whatever way fits your agenda.

[strike wolf]

Im beat. While most of you are quarantined at home, Im on the retail front lines working overtime. Quick PSA: please if any of you have anything,to spare whether it be money, hand sanitizer, gloves, masks or food send it to your local hospitals.

Anyways, actual game. The long post thinf was kinda a bluff to give Aage time to potentially incriminate his scum partner. Why Aage specifically? Well I have pretty strong reasons to believe that he is scum.

Vote Aage

Now I tried to look into Aages posts and posts where Aage was mentioned to try to dig up information but I dug up pretty much nothing. DGZ is mixed but hes mostly neen active which has me slightly leaning town. Mets is too inactive for me to read well but also leaning town. Which leaves Skittles and Ragoo. I alwaus misread Ragoo so I'm hesitant to follow my own logic on him. Skittles seems like hes trying,to scum hunt. The mets vote was an easy inactive vote ane he hasnt done anything that makes it feel like he stands out which could be scum playong safe. Worth noting that Aage called him out on the Mets vote being easy.

L337 4 l!f3.

[Ragian]

Thanks for your brilliant work, Strike. It's nice to hear that you're giving it all. Hopefully, you'll be rewarded somehow. Meanwhile, I'm teaching from home, which is also a bitch. It probably wouldn't be if my students were from the upper middle class, but they aren't. Some of them have school as an asylum, and they have a hard time going to school from home given their situations. I haven't heard from some students for almost three weeks, and I can't reach them. It's killing me.

---

Actual game. I can kinda see why you're gunning for Aage, as he is by far the one contributing the least. To be honest, he hasn't contributed at all. But apart from Strike who has put his vote where his mouth is, I don't see anyone trying to scumhunt (except for my beautiful self). Lynching him without him posting is a blind lynch, though, and I don't really like that. What if we're lynching a power role?

There is still something about mets rubbing me the wrong way. In my view, I called him out for an inconsistent post, which he understood to be me defending myself when I was actually attacking him. It just feels off that he accuses me of something that was the exact opposite (unless he's saying that me attacking him is me defending myself). He's my top pick for scum right now, but it's very little to go on. Were I forced to vote, I'd vote Mets.

[dgz345]

For me all us teachers are still in school while we teach the students over the internet...

-----------------

Well there is not much to go on. Just as strike people could be really busy right now.

Some could actually be sick or have sick relatives that takes up time that they should not spend here.

[strike wolf]

Thanks for your brilliant work, Strike. It's nice to hear that you're giving it all. Hopefully, you'll be rewarded somehow. Meanwhile, I'm teaching from home, which is also a bitch. It probably wouldn't be if my students were from the upper middle class, but they aren't. Some of them have school as an asylum, and they have a hard time going to school from home given their situations. I haven't heard from some students for almost three weeks, and I can't reach them. It's killing me.

---

Actual game. I can kinda see why you're gunning for Aage, as he is by far the one contributing the least. To be honest, he hasn't contributed at all. But apart from Strike who has put his vote where his mouth is, I don't see anyone trying to scumhunt (except for my beautiful self). Lynching him without him posting is a blind lynch, though, and I don't really like that. What if we're lynching a power role?

There is still something about mets rubbing me the wrong way. In my view, I called him out for an inconsistent post, which he understood to be me defending myself when I was actually attacking him. It just feels off that he accuses me of something that was the exact opposite (unless he's saying that me attacking him is me defending myself). He's my top pick for scum right now, but it's very little to go on. Were I forced to vote, I'd vote Mets.

Wow. I was having so much fun with the rest of my post I forgot the important part: I'm a cop who got a scum result on Aage.

Also Teachers are always important.

[Ragian]

LOL

vote Aage

I see why you wanted him to speak up.

[dgz345]

Wow. I was having so much fun with the rest of my post I forgot the important part: I'm a cop who got a scum result on Aage.

Also Teachers are always important.

If you are scum that's a great play by you
so if you are I'll be nice and let you win with no hard feelings

Vote Aage

[strike wolf]

Wow. I was having so much fun with the rest of my post I forgot the important part: I'm a cop who got a scum result on Aage.

Also Teachers are always important.

If you are scum that's a great play by you
so if you are I'll be nice and let you win with no hard feelings

Vote Aage

Unvote Lets give everyone a chance to respond and keep it at L-2 for now.

Also is it just me or is this a weird response from DGZ? 'I see potential for this as a scum play but whatever Ill go along with it.'

[Metsfanmax]

There is still something about mets rubbing me the wrong way. In my view, I called him out for an inconsistent post, which he understood to be me defending myself when I was actually attacking him. It just feels off that he accuses me of something that was the exact opposite (unless he's saying that me attacking him is me defending myself). He's my top pick for scum right now, but it's very little to go on. Were I forced to vote, I'd vote Mets.

My comment was that your post (among others) wasn't useful. You responded by calling my statement weird and implying that I'm scum. It's classic OMGUS.

Regarding the cop claim, I think we have to be real careful here and I am absolutely going to wait for aage to comment and for Skittles to post more of substance. strike wolf correctly commented earlier that we're at MYLO if there's two scum. That is, if he is lying and we lynch aage who is town, mafia gets a night kill, we go into D3 two town versus two mafia, and that's end game. In this situation it's extremely rash to just go along with it, and Ragian and dgz should unvote until we discuss further. Now if strike is scum he's playing it fairly well, including with this recent unvote. But the stakes are too high, and his posts are inconsistent. The first post says:

Well I have pretty strong reasons to believe that he is scum.

That's exactly the sort of comment you make if you're not ready to reveal your info yet in this post. But the next post says:

I forgot the important part: I'm a cop who got a scum result on Aage.

That doesn't line up, because if you were planning to say it in the first post you would have just said it. So "I forgot" just doesn't track here.

[strike wolf]

I was wrestling with how much I should claim. Not saying I was a cop might make aage think I knew he vidited the killed targrt and slip up admitting it. Claiming cop also comes with risk. I decided in the end that what I waz writing was pretty much a straight up cop claim anyways and even if it was assumed I was a watcher or tracker than i aas putting the same target on my back. So I decided to say I was a cop but forgot to go back and clarify it. I also like a bit of showmanship and dramatically declaring I had forgotten the most important part sounsed better than 'yeah I was debating on whether to tell my full reason for voting Aage.'

DGZs vote post is still bugging me. The progression of thought he put up for voting just doesnt track logically for me. Express doubt but 'oh well'?

[Metsfanmax]

DGZs vote post is still bugging me. The progression of thought he put up for voting just doesnt track logically for me. Express doubt but 'oh well'?

It is a confusing post but I don't see the upside for him if he's scum and you're right and aage flips scum -- he's not going to have any won any points with us with that half-hearted reply. Normally one's goal in this situation as scum would be to distance yourself from your scum partner, not to draw attention to yourself.

[Ragian]

It's lame calling it OMGUS. If that's OMGUS, no one is allowed to accuse anyone if they have been slightly commented by the one they accuse. You cherrypicked (you can call it whatever you want, but that's what you did), and I called you out for it. You can't just go, "That's not allowed because I said stuff first."

I like it how you want someone who has posted four times in more than a week get in here to defend against a cop result. Moreover, Strike is the only one trying to do any investigative work, so I don't see any reasons for questioning him . Maybe Mets and dgz (I don't know where Skittles! went) could give us their read on people.

DGZs vote post is still bugging me. The progression of thought he put up for voting just doesnt track logically for me. Express doubt but 'oh well'?

It is a confusing post but I don't see the upside for him if he's scum and you're right and aage flips scum -- he's not going to have any won any points with us with that half-hearted reply. Normally one's goal in this situation as scum would be to distance yourself from your scum partner, not to draw attention to yourself.

I see the long con here.

[dgz345]

The problem is that im only posting from the information that i know and i know one fact that you don't know.

so i was posting from the view that i know that I'm town and forgot that it might sound scummy as i already know that I'm town....

but i do not know if strike is really cop. but are willing to go with that 50/50 as we are at 1 misslynch we loose.

so its a big play if strike claims cop and are really scum and gets us to misslynch and then win.

only thing that would retract my vote right now is another cop claim. or if strike starts looking scummy

[aage]

Wow. I was having so much fun with the rest of my post I forgot the important part: I'm a cop who got a scum result on Aage.

That would actually be a pretty good, explosive play in a silent game like this. When nothing's happening, it's tempting for town to vote more impulsively.
But you made a boo boo. I'm not gonna waste my time on his claimed result, obviously it's his word against mine. I also don't intend to claim my role today, as there is no need to give that information up now. However, Mets is hitting the nail on the head and taking the words right out of my mouth. For a townie it would be incredibly loose to try to lynch today on this information. With 6 players alive we are very probably at MyLo. The town cop play would be to claim cop, post the result and vote no lynch because for the rest of town there is no reason to risk the game with 6 alive. There is a free night available if we want it, and town only stands to gain from taking it, sooner rather than later.
Unfortunately I can't provide evidence for my towniness, as I said there are no meaningful arguments to make to defend against a cop result claim except "no u". Fortunately, I won't need to because Strike already gave away his game with this play. If Strike were the cop, he would not be trying to lynch me today. He is trying to lynch me today, ergo he is not the cop.

As for who else might be scum, I've been considering this for the past hour or so... I don't think town stands to benefit anything from me sharing my thoughts on that right now because mafia won't nightkill me anyway after Strike's claim. I see no reason to tell the mafia anything about my reads, and I'd rather town play on their own reads since everything I say will be a pile of wifom for power roles anyway. I know I promised a larger post, but Strike's accusation puts me in a rather unusual position. Don't get me wrong, other town should still post since they might die during the night, but since I know I won't, funny enough it's actually better for me to keep my thoughts to myself for today. I'll start compiling a post to drop on D3 though.

May cooler heads prevail,
vote no lynch
(don't bandwagon this yet cause there is still some stuff to unpack for town. I understand I'm asking you to discuss while I'm deliberately not participating, it looks pretty hypocritical on the surface, but I believe my reasons for doing so are correct.)

[strike wolf]

So Im supposed to give a scum result and expect everyone to go along with voting no lynch? I dont see that. Pushing forward no lynch eben at mylo witha. Cop result to me just screams non-confidence. Thats not really a scum tell but it doesnt possess a lot of traction behind it. If I had voted no lynch even with explanation youd just be on the argument line that my lack of confidence is telling.

If youre town, I dont

P.S. I go back to work tomorrow so I might get busy for a few days again.

[Metsfanmax]

It's lame calling it OMGUS. If that's OMGUS, no one is allowed to accuse anyone if they have been slightly commented by the one they accuse. You cherrypicked (you can call it whatever you want, but that's what you did), and I called you out for it. You can't just go, "That's not allowed because I said stuff first."

I apologize for defending myself against your accusations and will remember not to make that mistake in the future.

I like it how you want someone who has posted four times in more than a week get in here to defend against a cop result.

I apologize for wanting all of the players in the game to continue to be invested in the game and will remember not to make that mistake in the future.

Moreover, Strike is the only one trying to do any investigative work, so I don't see any reasons for questioning him.

I apologize for wanting to be cautious in a MYLO situation and will remember not to make that mistake in the future.

[Metsfanmax]

So Im supposed to give a scum result and expect everyone to go along with voting no lynch? I dont see that. Pushing forward no lynch eben at mylo witha. Cop result to me just screams non-confidence. Thats not really a scum tell but it doesnt possess a lot of traction behind it. If I had voted no lynch even with explanation youd just be on the argument line that my lack of confidence is telling.

If youre town, I dont

P.S. I go back to work tomorrow so I might get busy for a few days again.

I don't agree with aage that you should have claimed your result and then immediately voted no lynch, but I am sympathetic to the argument that you claiming your result does not necessitate an immediate vote on your suspect. By unvoting later you have already demonstrated (correctly) that you know that we should be a little patient with this day and not immediately rush to lynch.

[dgz345]

If we vote no lynch and then lynch agee next day all we done is lose an extra townie

this all goes down if we trust strikes claim or not.

[Skittles!]

ALRIGHT LADIES. Last week has been pretty busy with me and all over the place.
Firstly -

It's lame calling it OMGUS. If that's OMGUS, no one is allowed to accuse anyone if they have been slightly commented by the one they accuse. You cherrypicked (you can call it whatever you want, but that's what you did), and I called you out for it. You can't just go, "That's not allowed because I said stuff first."

I apologize for defending myself against your accusations and will remember not to make that mistake in the future.

I like it how you want someone who has posted four times in more than a week get in here to defend against a cop result.

I apologize for wanting all of the players in the game to continue to be invested in the game and will remember not to make that mistake in the future.

Moreover, Strike is the only one trying to do any investigative work, so I don't see any reasons for questioning him.

I apologize for wanting to be cautious in a MYLO situation and will remember not to make that mistake in the future.

Dude, chill.

Secondly -
Strike's claim make sense to me - we could be at MYLO, we lost two townies last night (silly esoog), what really do we have to lose more? To just let scum get another free kill tonight? We had a "free" day yesterday when we couldn't decide on who to lynch (tbf we should've gone for Mets), so I don't fully get why aage is supporting a no-lynch again at that reasoning. Saying they won't claim even though they were L-2 is tough.

THOUGH in saying that and in thinking it, this is a Skoffin game. She could easily make Strike an insane cop just for the lulz.

Well I have pretty strong reasons to believe that he is scum.

That's exactly the sort of comment you make if you're not ready to reveal your info yet in this post. But the next post says:

I forgot the important part: I'm a cop who got a scum result on Aage.

That doesn't line up, because if you were planning to say it in the first post you would have just said it. So "I forgot" just doesn't track here.

This is also an important distinction. But strike could have just forgotten that he wanted to even mention it and got carried away.

I also have some suspicions on Mets, Ragian.
Dgz just seems silly

[Skittles!]

Continuing on with same quote by Mets (re-reading the previous page again)

Regarding the cop claim, I think we have to be real careful here and I am absolutely going to wait for aage to comment and for Skittles to post more of substance. strike wolf correctly commented earlier that we're at MYLO if there's two scum. That is, if he is lying and we lynch aage who is town, mafia gets a night kill, we go into D3 two town versus two mafia, and that's end game. In this situation it's extremely rash to just go along with it, and Ragian and dgz should unvote until we discuss further. Now if strike is scum he's playing it fairly well, including with this recent unvote. But the stakes are too high, and his posts are inconsistent. .

This just screams like Mets is trying to save his scum bud (aage) even after Strike JUST unvoted.

I really think we should go for aage and then Mets.

[Metsfanmax]

Strike's claim make sense to me - we could be at MYLO, we lost two townies last night (silly esoog), what really do we have to lose more?

Whether strike's claim makes sense -- that is, whether he is telling a coherent story that could plausibly lead one to believe that strike is a (sane) cop -- is not the same as whether it is rational to lynch aage given strike's claim. The difference lies in whether we believe he's telling the truth (and how likely we rate outside possibilities, like insanity or a bus driver), and in what the consequences are if we're wrong.

We had a "free" day yesterday when we couldn't decide on who to lynch (tbf we should've gone for Mets), so I don't fully get why aage is supporting a no-lynch again at that reasoning.

Sunk cost fallacy. We have to play the cards we're dealt now, not reminisce about what should have been done on D1.

[Metsfanmax]

Continuing on with same quote by Mets (re-reading the previous page again)

Regarding the cop claim, I think we have to be real careful here and I am absolutely going to wait for aage to comment and for Skittles to post more of substance. strike wolf correctly commented earlier that we're at MYLO if there's two scum. That is, if he is lying and we lynch aage who is town, mafia gets a night kill, we go into D3 two town versus two mafia, and that's end game. In this situation it's extremely rash to just go along with it, and Ragian and dgz should unvote until we discuss further. Now if strike is scum he's playing it fairly well, including with this recent unvote. But the stakes are too high, and his posts are inconsistent. .

This just screams like Mets is trying to save his scum bud (aage) even after Strike JUST unvoted.

Alternate scenario: Mets is trying to ensure that we take our time on Day 2 and don't risk being anywhere close to a lynch until more discussion has been had. This happens to correspond to the actual text I wrote of being very careful. Why are you so confident it's this hidden interpretation that explains it?

[Ragian]

Sheesh, mets.

Anyway, Aage has a guilty verdict against him. He's not voting for Strike, he's voting no lynch. We don't know what powers scum have. What if they have a one-shot extra kill? What if Aage is a scum roleblocker? What if...yada yada. It makes absolutely zero sense to no lynch today. It's either Aage or Strike.

My vote stays.

[Metsfanmax]

Anyway, Aage has a guilty verdict against him. He's not voting for Strike, he's voting no lynch. We don't know what powers scum have. What if they have a one-shot extra kill? What if Aage is a scum roleblocker? What if...yada yada. It makes absolutely zero sense to no lynch today. It's either Aage or Strike.

The fact that there could be any number of wild scenarios which make a no-lynch a bad idea does not mean that we need to lynch. If you sum over all of the possibilities weighted by the likelihood they're actually in the game, there's still a very fair argument for the no-lynch today. And one could posit other scenarios as well; for one thing, we don't even know that there actually are two scum. Could be just one. Could be a third party.

I'm still thinking about what to do, but I do know that "it makes absolutely zero sense to no lynch today" is far too simplistic of a way to treat this scenario and I'm alarmed by how cavalier it is.

[Metsfanmax]

Pika has pointed out numerous times (assuming the most common scenario where it's just town versus mafia and mafia have only one night kill) that with an even number of players left it's statistically a bad idea to lynch compared to waiting for the following day with an odd number of players. We're very possibly in a MYLO situation with either 5 players left or with 6, but with 5 players left a randomly chosen lynch is 40% likely to hit scum while today it's only 33% likely. Assuming we picked correctly on D3 then we'd go into D4 with two town and one scum left, so we still have to get through that three-way standoff which is not great odds. The other scenario is that we lynch today and get it right (and don't endgame). Then we go into D3 with four players left, likely three town and one scum, and again in that scenario it would make the most sense to wait until D4 for a three player finale. So if we have to do the same process either way, we might wait until tomorrow to lynch so that our odds are slightly better.

The situation is always more complicated than this analysis (for example, we got really unlucky with the hider dying) but it's often a useful place to start from.