Dukasaur wrote: Thu Dec 11, 2025 5:37 pm
jusplay4fun wrote: Thu Dec 11, 2025 12:33 pm
from AI Overview:
The U.S. economic outlook for late 2025 and 2026 points to moderate growth (around 2%) but with significant volatility, driven by sticky inflation near 3%, a cooling but tight labor market, and strong consumer spending offset by AI-driven business investment, with ongoing sector rotations and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts later in 2026, though recession risks remain and fiscal deficits are a long-term concern. Key factors include AI investment, fiscal policy impacts, and global economic shifts.
Key Themes & Forecasts:
Growth: Forecasts hover around 2% for 2026, supported by consumer spending and AI investment
Sounds good, not great. This forecast is certainly better than what happened under Biden.
Rare is ALL Economic news great. On that note, the Fed tries to balance two rather conflicting goals: 1) Economic growth with low unemployment and 2) low inflation (as I have discussed before).
That make-believe "forecast" won't age well.
Here's the real forecast:
Unemployment is rising fast. The real rate of unemployment is masked by the gig economy. A software engineer who loses his $125K/year job and goes to eke out $30K/year driving an Uber is not
officially unemployed, but he's just a step away from the soup kitchen. Meanwhile, even though the official numbers hide the real damage being done, even the the official unemployment numbers are rising.
Foreclosures, 90-day credit card delinquencies, and car repossessions are all at 13-year highs. Bankruptcies will follow within the next quarter.
Food and other basic needs spiking in cost.
Fed cranking up the printing presses. Core inflation should be 5% by this time next year.
The CPI won't reflect the real inflation rate, because the meltdown in the real estate market will reduce the cost of housing, which is 40% of the CPI. So, looking at the CPI, you'll be able to claim that inflation is fairly low, but everything other than housing will be skyrocketing.
The AI bubble will burst, and the great number of people who have all their money in passive index funds will lose half of their retirement nest eggs.
The "bro" economy of young men who gamble away all their disposable income, and some of their non-disposable, will be exposed as the social poison that it is. Not only bankruptcies, but actual suicides will follow.
The government that saved nothing for a rainy day will find that its possible avenues of approach are all cut off by its hopeless fiscal situation.
Trump will force the Fed to push interest rates to zero, and he will mail out stimulus cheques to everyone, but it won't change anything. People will see the real economy crumbling, and any cash that comes through the mailbox will go to either stave off the collection agents or to necessities.
Don't waste your breath arguing. Talk to me in a year, and see which of us landed closer to the truth.
NAW, I accept your challenge. NO need for me to waste my time; I can argue this all day long. AND I have to wait ONLY ONE year to prove my point? Why not wait 5 or 10 years??? NAW, I will argue it HERE AND NOW.
and NOTE that there are NO Source cited by Duk, so who is using
make-believe "forecast"
??? And Duk claims his crystal ball is better than mine?? because...?? again, he did not cite his sources, so we can argue crystal balls all day long.
And it is a crystal ball, yours and mine, are not a guarantee of what will happen.
AND the data used for predictions is limited NOW, due to the Schumer Shut-down of the Federal Government over ObamaCare. This includes the crystal ball used by the Fed (the Federal Reserve Board).
The
real economy crumbling
?? What real economy? The one that Biden predicted? Are you saying a major depression will occur? Is that what you want so that your predictions, predicated partly by your TDS, will happen??
and you claim
Food and other basic needs spiking in cost.
A small increase in food since January is NOT spiking, NOT compared to the inflation caused by Biden.
How has the price changed since before the pandemic?
Up 29% since February 2020, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
(NPR)
https://www.npr.org/2025/09/19/nx-s1-55 ... -inflation
and
As recently as August 2022, the rate of inflation for food at 11.4% was the highest since May 1979.
https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/i ... ed-states/
MORE data at the above website; including the REAL and ACTUAL food spike in 2022 under "Bidenomics." The current yearly inflation of food since August 2024 (before Trump II) is 3.1%, much less than under Biden. The overall annual inflation rate is about 3% now.
And Duk uses HYPERBOLE to exaggerate the inflation under Trump in the past 11 months or so. The US Economy is too complex is to relate ONE number to another to show definitive causality.
and now Duk claims the data is NOT REAL data:
The CPI won't reflect the real inflation rate
As I said, one can a number (stat) or 3 CANNOT be used to argue the US Economy is doing (Pick ONE: Great, good, fair, bad, or horrible). What type of number are you looking for? BUT Duk also claims an overall number (CPI) is not really accurate. So somehow his numbers are better and the "real numbers" (actual Stats, CPI, by the Government) is NOT accurate. Does this sound like a person talking out of BOTH sides of his mouth?
Duk will next claim the sky is falling. NEXT, Duk will also attempt to link that to Trump's tarriffs on Canadian goods.
There may be a handful of people trying to avoid
stave off the collection agents
Not everyone is that close to bankruptcy. As an aside, I see LOTS of young people get food sent to their place of work via UBER East OR Grub Hub or other food delivery service. AND for McDonald's? They want to spend $10 to have a $15 lunch delivered? They need to learn to better manage their money. Some of these folks, especially young people are almost as profligate as the Federal Government.
You need better arguments, better forecasts, less hyperbole, and reliable and cited sources, Duk. SO far, my sources TRUMP yours, before and after your previous post.
. but f*ck me, that is bloody retarded.
